PYPER

This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 11-1; Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2
2) Steelers: 9-3; Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
3) Jets: 8-4; @SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5
4) Broncos: 7-5; KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6
5) Colts: 8-4; Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 3 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
6) Ravens: 8-4; Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW’s; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5
================================================== ===
7) Dolphins: 7-5; @Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10 - 6
8) Patriots: 7-5; @Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10–6
9) Bills: 6-6; Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 0 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 8-8


What this shows me is that the Patriots likely need to win out to make the playoffs. Our conference record essentially puts us 1.5 games back of Baltimore with four to play. That means we need to go 4-0 and hope they drop two (or one and a tie).

Eleven wins could also take the division if the Jets drop one to the Bills or Dolphins. We need them to lose a division game to force the deciding tie-breaker to be our records vs common opponents.

For you novices out there, the easiest way to figure out the records vs common opponents is to look at the records against non-common opponents instead since that only involves calculating two games instead of 14. The Patriots went 0-2 (Ind,Pit) in those games and the Jets went 2-0(Ten,Cin). Obviously to finish tied with them with the same overall record we'd need to finish two games better in the common-opponent games.

That's how the Jets beat us out for the division in 2002 so there would be a certain amount of irony if we could return the favor this year.

As far as the Dolphins go, it's a little bit more complicated. If the Dolphins win out and also finish 11-5, it could create a 3 way tie with the Jets (assuming the Jets win all their games except the Miami game).

Under such a scenario, an eleven win team would miss the postseason. In this case, it would be the Jets b/c both Miami and New England would have better records vs common opponents. (NOTE: This assumes Indy wins 11 or 12 games and takes the 5th seed).

Interestingly, the Dolphins, like the Patriots, lost both of their non-common games (Hou,Bal). That would force the next tie-breaker to be used. Conference Record. If both teams finish 11-5, the Dolphins would take the tie-breaker. If the Patriots win out, they'll finish unbeaten vs the NFC while the Fish have already lost to Arizona. That means Miami would have a one game advantage in the AFC games.

Here are the tie-breakers.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.


So the Dolphins would take the east in the greatest single season turnaround in league history and the Patriots would be the 6th seeded Wild Card while the Jets would be watching at home despite an impressive 11-5 season and late season victory over the top seeded Titans.

I think I'm rooting for that scenario to play out. I love it when the Jets get their hearts ripped out.

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QuinielaBox

What if Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee(1), and Denver(4) win their divisions and Indianapolis, Baltimore, NYJ, Miami and us all tie at 11 and 5? What then? My guess is that there are hundreds if not thousands of possibilities depending on the outcome of games.

I'm not that concerned about it. If the Patriots finish up at 11 and 5 and don't qualify for the AFC playoffs, it will not be the end of the world for them. It will make them come back very hungary to take care of business next year with Tom Brady at QB.

They have to add to the defense and the offensive lines, though.

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JoePats

Unlikely. Baltimore would have to beat Pittsburgh or Dallas. Us and Miami and Indy would all have to run the table.

11-5 I think would get us in. But we would need a lot of help to make it at 10-6.

tanked_as_usual

the AFC east division winner would be decided first

Disco Volante

If that were to happen, the Dolphins would win the AFC East.

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chrisfx811

With that remaining schedule, the Pats have a great chance to go 11-5. The back to back WC games will play tougher than they look on paper, but unless the Pats stink it up in the TO dept again, they should win those two.
The AZ game is the worst matchup, but as mentioned many times, it's a 1pm EST game for a WC team, which favors the Pats nicely. Will that be enough to overcome facing the best 1-2 WR punch in the NFL? Who knows.

I see them going 3-1, and finishing up 10-6.

Looking at the Ravens schedule, if they can finish ahead of the Pats or even tied with us, then they will have made an impressive run. That's quite a gauntlet to run through to finish the season.

This Pats team has shown flashes that it can play with the AFC's best, but mistakes are absolutely crushing this team in the games against the conference big boys.

PatsFanSince74

We need a computer model to tell us that the Pats need to win out even to have a chance of making the playoffs?

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JSn

It's tough, because facing this generally soft schedule at the end (though I think Oakland will be harder than we think), doesn't prep us well for play-off's.

Winning our division would be a nice accomplishment this year.

That said even the return of Thomas and continued involvement of Redd could make a difference out there as the weeks roll along.

Either way, I think we're seeing pretty clearly that this team is awfully banged up to hope to make some noise in the playoffs. Somehow finding a way to the big game would absolutely be the years best story, hands down.

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chrisfx811

We've not exactly played a tough schedule all year, and best I can remember, our biggest win came against a Denver team with an injured qb.
All of the measuring stick games lately turned out to be losses, Indy, Pitt, Jets.

I don't think this team would have a snowball's chance in hell at the playoffs if they played Baltimore's closing schedule. Which is why I think we have a chance to overtake them and make it to the post season.

PatsFanSince74

I more or less agree with you, tho I wouldn't count Belichick's Patriots out with any schedule until all the games are played, so "snowball's chance in hell" is stronger than I would put it.

But, essentially I agree. Around a month ago we controlled our own destiny with three games in four weeks (two of them at home) against teams with whom we are competing for a Playoff slot (Colts, Jets and Steelers); and, we lost all three of them.

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