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That's a pretty decent analysis from Jason with a couple of exceptions due to his lack of familiarity with the team and the way they have actually generally operated.
Brady won't get a 5 year extension. His have always been 4 year increments (using the final remaining 2 to spread the amortization from the new deal) except for when they felt they had to wait a season to assess the ACL and in light of the impending uncapped year. That would take him through age 41 and 2018 when the cap from the recent CBA should finally be feeling the full effect of the TV deals. And as long as his entire salary isn't guaranteed prior to the start of that final season, they would have the wiggle room to talk or walk if by then it looks like he's dropping off dramatically. Hopefully they don't ballaxe that negotiation as they have a couple of costly ones over the last couple of seasons, including both Welker and Mankins. They seem to have attempted to go in the opposite direction of late, inking early deals with Mayo, Gronk and Ahern. Although in the latter case they may have overcommitted to the TE's in tandem a little too soon. Particularly in the case of Hernandez who absent Gronk isn't nearly the weapon everyone seems to have envisioned. Holding off on his extension until this off season might have saved them a few million and/or allowed them to structure his deal more along the lines of Gronkowski's.
They blew any option to retain Brady for a final season or two via tag as opposed to via contract when they did the restructure this past season. I assume both sides weighed out their options before they did that and were comfortable with persuing the end game via contract extension. As for the Brees deal setting the bar, Tom has always been content to settle for semantic spitting distance. His new money may be equal, but his old money will not be and 2 years to spread it across will make it a more manageable deal on average. 4 years, $80M plus roughly $30M remaining for 2013-14 or an average of $18M per. Or they could go 3 although that might have to include upping the ante on the guaranteed money because it would lower the AAV to $16M. Risk reward wise given the way Brady has consistently maintained his level of performance an extension as opposed to any other approach would appear to be a slam dunk.
I don't think Jason gets how they value Vince, who has become more than a top tier NT since signing his deal. I see them extending his deal by a couple of seasons because he has gotten better over that time span and early concerns about weight and conditioning and potential utilization have evaporated. Pay him up front for the remaining two years and tag a couple of salary years on the backend. The only concern they might have is emotion, as he did talk about retirement briefly in the aftermath of Sunday. And Bill tends to ascribe to the theory that once a player starts talking about it it is lurking just around the corner. Brief mention may however be discounted. The only knock on Vince, and it's always been there and it's not like Mayo isn't in a similar situation, is he's never really stepped up as a leader in the mold of some of the past Patriots defensive captains. He's not a guy who gets in others grills or instills fear. Hard worker who leads by example but more of a jovial presence in the locker room than a motivator who pushes those around him to step it up.
Cutting Ninkovitch? To save $1.5?? Not gonna happen. Cutting Lloyd is also not gonna happen, although I could see them discussing that option given some level of concern going forward about fit and utilization and style... He didn't have a robust market aside from here with Josh last off season so they could possibly leverage the remaining 2 years of his deal offering incentives to still earn the deal, although that might be a risk given his reported odd personality.
The situations they created by digging in on Mankins and Wellker and to a lesser extent on Vince coupled with the deals they pre-emptively lept into on the TE's and Mayo will unfortunately make for some difficult negotiations and decisions this season as well as going forward over the next couple of seasons when they face extensions for Solder and McCourty and Spikes. As Pioli used to say, can't pay 'em all elite money or the middle class budget will dry up. And the significance of maintaining flexibility in managing your cap can't be overestimated. Maybe that is part of the reason Floyd and the organization have decided to part company. But the personnel arm of the outfit has to start doing a better job of identifying talent, too. Seem to be drafting better the last couple of seasons, but we've also gotten a little too cavalier with trading away draft picks and doling out bonus money to FA who don't stick out of the gate. Can't afford to be burning double digits on dead cap.
Thanks for the feedback. I should have mentioned in the article like I do my others that I'm nowhere near as up on the rosters as I would be the jets. I did that for the other teams and I'm not sure why I failed to do it.
I thought about the 4 year deal on Brady but kind of felt that he might want to pass that 100 million mark and that because of the high prorations he already had that they would need the 7 years for cap purposes. I assumed they would keep his 30 mil or so pay the same the next two years and then kick in with the option bonus in 2015. I would think that could get his cap the next two years when it's more important lower but the 4 year deal is an excellent point. If Brady goes 4 years at that number he is the anti-Revis when it comes to these contracts.
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He will be fine spinning the new money is equal or maybe a dollar more or the guarantee is somehow better. That's the way they've always rolled. He's always lagged the others on total value or average value of the new deal in it's entirety. But let's face it, Manning is now on a year to year or two year and we'll see deal. Brady's never had to set the bar on total average, just approach it in ways that don't render him a doormat like first three or guarantees. While they are happy with the average based on their ability to spread the amortization backwards and retain some flexibility knowing they won't be facing some phony years loaded not with salary which can easily to away so much as with dead cap that can't to grapple with after he's gone.
If memory serves (I didnt bother to look it up ), this is the year that all the spending floors and minimums and cash outlays all will be fully kicked in. That could lead to low paying teams like the Chiefs finally closing the spending gap. A team like the Chiefs could, for example, easily afford Vollmer, Welker and Talib (players they actually could use) and still have plenty of money left over.
I would have to assume that with Reid immediately taking the job and not even looking elsewhere, he was assured they will spend.
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Re: 2013 Free Agency: "Teams Don't Have Money"
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATippett56
That's certainly not the case for the Bengals, Browns, or Colts.
Incidentally, the Cincinnati Bengals only have two running backs under contract for the 2013 NFL Season.
Incidentally, the Indianapolis Colts could use a starting right tackle not named Winston Justice and a competant cornerback not named Cassius Vaughn or Darius Butler.
Butler's had a good year for them.
As far as we're concerned, I think we're going into the year about $18M under the cap. Should be enough to get a few signed, especially if we restructure one or two. I'm not sure Brady might though, he's put off his pay-day for long enough.
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As far as we're concerned, I think we're going into the year about $18M under the cap. Should be enough to get a few signed, especially if we restructure one or two. I'm not sure Brady might though, he's put off his pay-day for long enough.
He's never really put his payday off. They've done his deals incrementally all along and his new money has always been in range of the top 5 playing highest paid musical chairs. His current deal paid him $18M per new money average. Peyton got $18M in Denver last season and he's about to be guaranteed $20M for 2013 and 2014. But they're doling his money out in Denver incrementally. Not getting the guaranteed money he used to. Brees $100M deal guarantees him $45M. Brady got $42M last time. Brees may not see the backend of his deal. Brady has seen the back end of all of his so far. Brees just played out a 6 year $60M deal. Same deal Brady signed in 2005 that got rolled over into his 4 year $72M deal in 2010.
As far as we're concerned, I think we're going into the year about $18M under the cap. Should be enough to get a few signed, especially if we restructure one or two. I'm not sure Brady might though, he's put off his pay-day for long enough.
BritPat: One thing to remember is that Brady restructuring means pushing salary cap into the future, not actual payments.
In fact, in his most recent deal, he actually turned most of his 2012 salary into a signing bonus (allowing them to spread the money out over the rest of the deal), so he actually got it before the season started.
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That's certainly not the case for the Bengals, Browns, or Colts.
Incidentally, the Cincinnati Bengals only have two running backs under contract for the 2013 NFL Season.
Incidentally, the Indianapolis Colts could use a starting right tackle not named Winston Justice and a competant cornerback not named Cassius Vaughn or Darius Butler.
The Colts have a very young team with a lot players who will be looking to get paid very soon. If they spend now on contracts for Vollmer and Talib they will end up losing their own talent in 1-2 years.
Bengals can take Woodhead how many change of pace backs make sense to have on one roster? Vereen, Demps and Woodhead wouldn't be a good use of money.
The Colts have a very young team with a lot players who will be looking to get paid very soon. If they spend now on contracts for Vollmer and Talib they will end up losing their own talent in 1-2 years.
The Colts have over $40 million in cap space. As for the Indianapolis Colts rookie draft class, the Colts won't need to worry about paying them for another three years.
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serious question...if, for any reason, the Patriots got into a bad cap situation , or paid far more than YOU personally feel is justified for different players,what do YOU do next?....stay a Pats fan?...find another team to follow that is more suiting to your taste in contracts?
I have a lot of free time at this point in my life and yet my allotted Patriot fan time is a full plate. If I devoted even a 1/10th of the time researching contract numbers and making player by player evaluations based on contracts that some do here, I'd have next to zero time to do anything else....especially just being a fan of the football team I grew up rooting for.
I paid $225 for a playoff ticket last week..the stadium was sold out...yet "Teams Don't Have Money" is the hottest thread on this board. It strikes me that teams have plenty of money, and have HAD plenty of money since the TV contracts went intergalactic....so if there is a "No Money" issue as far as teams being able to sign players and keep their part of the NFL machine rolling, then it seems to me that SOMEONE should be directly accountable for being so shortsighted....yes, somebody alright...
Bengals can take Woodhead how many change of pace backs make sense to have on one roster? Vereen, Demps and Woodhead wouldn't be a good use of money.
One thing to keep in mind with Woodhead is that we really have no idea whether Demps will indeed live up to all of these high standards or not.
As of now it's nice to imagine, but I'd much rather be able to rely on Woodhead and now even Vereen, as opposed to simply Demps and Vereen...two very different pictures there.
If Demps can contibute as a 5th RB, or even a 4th RB due to injury/PUP or something that can always come up between now and the beginning of the season, that's great. We're all pretty sure that he'll be contributing on kickoff returns and gadget plays, but there's certainly no sure thing that he'll be able to grasp this offense in terms of playbook and blitz pickup to even see the field on many running plays, at least not yet.
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Re: 2013 Free Agency: "Teams Don't Have Money"
), this is the year that all the spending floors and minimums and cash outlays all will be fully kicked in. That could lead to low paying teams like the Chiefs finally closing the spending gap. A team like the Chiefs could, for example, easily afford Vollmer, Welker and Talib (players they actually could use) and still have plenty of money left over.
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