PatsWickedPissah

Yes, and that lasts right up until opening day on FA signings when some panicked GM jumps the gun and empties the next several years' salary cap purse on some "big name" FA. Takes only one or two teams out of 32 to start a stampede.

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Deus Irae

Yes, but we're in 'interesting times', where the cap's going to have been flat for 3 seasons. One thing that used to fuel free agency was that every team was gaining additional millions in spending money every season. That's not happening right now, so we could, possibly, see a situation like the early years of free agency, when good players had to be cut to keep teams under the cap.

And if the players don't like it, they can take it up with D. Smith, who got them this CBA.

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ctpatsfan77

Just look at last year, where a lot of mediocre receivers got a LOT of money.

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mayoclinic

It will be interesting to see if a few teams break rank and start a feeding frenzy, or if teams stay disciplined and keep things more moderate with a flat cap. I'm pretty sure the Pats won't be joining in any frenzy, but it's generally a consistent theme of FA that teams at the bottom spend like crazy, and seldom get much better.

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Deus Irae

If memory serves (I didnt bother to look it up ), this is the year that all the spending floors and minimums and cash outlays all will be fully kicked in. That could lead to low paying teams like the Chiefs finally closing the spending gap. A team like the Chiefs could, for example, easily afford Vollmer, Welker and Talib (players they actually could use) and still have plenty of money left over.

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patfanken

Very interesting thread. And I think it will lead to a very interesting off season with some very conflicting pressures. For teams like Cleveland, Miami, and TB, this off season can be a year where they can quickly add 2 or 3 impact players and turn their teams around. For Cinci, it can be a chance to do the same and make a real superbowl run.

Then there is about 15 teams who are roughly are in the Pats position. Some where around 12-22MM under the cap, with the ability to add to that with restructures and cuts. But, like the Pats, most will have a few of their own FA's to sign that will eat most if not all of that space.

Finally you have about 8 teams who are currently under water. Sure they will be able to quickly get under the cap, but only by cutting players, who will need to be replaced, and further add to the vet FA glut.

The bottom line for the league is that I think the OP is right on the money. Once the 4 teams with more than 35MM in space take their pick of the litter, (lets say about 8-10 big contract players) the rest of the 300 or so vet FAs will find it very difficult to negotiate from any strength, given the vast glut of players and relatively small amount of space that MOST teams will have. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see franchise tag,prices drop slightly after this season, after over a decade constant annual gains.

As to the Pats in particular. I think the Pats will do the restructuring, extending, and cutting necessary to go into FA with about $25MM to resign their own FA and add a few vet FA's to the mix. I don't see them signing everyone of their own FA's and at this point I am so filled with the pros and cons of all of them, I have no idea who they will keep and who will be left to walk

However what I do know is that the Pats will add 5 draft picks. They will add 4 players from the IR who didn't contribute much this season (Ballard, Dowling, Fletcher, Demps) plus Armstead. That's essentially 10 "new" players, added to the roster mix, even before we look at vet free agency.

We already have a very good young roster core. I think we can get bulk of our own FA's resigned (but not all) and add a few low end quality vets. We aren't in "great" shape, but we aren't in bad cap shape either.

patfanken

Actually the players are lucky DSmith and the NFLPA got the league to pre pay money into the cap that its even this high. IIRC if they had had a true cap number when they signed the CBA, it would have been around 112-14, not the 120MM number they wound up using.

But you are right on the money with your main point. That over the next few years the FA environment is going to be considerably different than what we've seen in the past. The trend to more conservative spending is going to continue. In the past when this has happened it was due to sound fiscal management. Now it will be a function of necessity.

patfanken

While I'm sure there will be 3 or 4 "big" signings like there usually are early in the game, The reality of what the cap is, the CONTINUING bad experiences teams have had when signing these big money contracts, the overall lack of cap space, and the glut of available players, will greatly mitigate the number of deals you described. The injury risks alone requires a team not spend big a percentage of their cap on just a few players, forget about the fact that most of those big contract guys rarely play up to the level they are being paid.

patfanken

Just a thought - We need to have a source, when it comes dealing with the cap, that not only tells us how much the team has left under the cap, but how many players they have under contract. The room a team has under the cap has little meaning if you don't know how many players they have under contract.

For example Team A who has 42 players under contract and is $18MM under the cap, is really in better cap shape than Team B who is $40MM under the cap and only has 28 players under contract

I anyone aware of a single source that provides BOTH numbers?

Deus Irae

Jason has put up his take on the Patriots situation. For the purposes of this thread, I think this is the most relevant paragraph:

Looking at the New England Patriots Salary Cap

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"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius