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Good morning. Steve is on vacation this weekend, so I’ll be holding things down this morning while he’s away.
I’ll do the best to fill his shoes, and here’s a look at this morning’s notes ahead of tonight’s showdown against the Ravens.
Coming off of last weekend’s loss against the Bills, this week was a big one for head coach Mike Vrabel. After coming up short in a game his team let slip away, Vrabel emphasized trying to make sure his team remained focused on moving forward ahead of this weekend.
Tonight’s contest is obviously huge, with New England trying to keep the edge on a Buffalo team that has the luxury of facing a woeful 3-11 Browns team in the early portion of Sunday’s slate of games. A loss by the Patriots would put their chances at winning the Division in jeopardy, and would be even more disappointing considering Buffalo is in Philadelphia next weekend and could be their last shot at a loss before they finish things up against the Jets the following week.
Last week’s game ended New England’s 10-game win streak, and Vrabel is just hoping that his team can use the loss in a positive fashion in what’s likely going to be a difficult match-up on the road against the Ravens.
“I would say that’s TBD,” said Vrabel when asked if a late season loss can be good for a team. “I don’t know. It’s only depending on how you respond, and how you prepare, and how you practice, and ultimately how you play. So, we’ll see. There’s a lot of good things in there, and we’ll need all those things on Sunday night against this football team, that is 6-2 after their bye and really coming off a big win last week and a dominant win.”
One key area is again going to be trying to contain an athletic quarterback in Lamar Jackson, with Josh Allen certainly giving the Patriots trouble on Sunday, especially with his legs. Allen rushed 11 times for 48 yards, with most of those coming in the second half (8 carries, 36 yards).
When asked about what it was like facing yet another athletic QB, Vrabel it will be a challenge his team is going to need to be ready for.
“Whatever. I mean, Josh [Allen] isn’t going to matter on Sunday. This is about Lamar [Jackson] and the Ravens and what he can do and his ability to stay patient and calm and then deliver the football or burst,” said Vrabel. “He really scrambles when he has to. He rarely feels like anybody’s going to be able to tackle him until he’s ready to go down or to get out of bounds or to throw.”
“That’s kind of the mindset and what I see on tape. That’ll be a huge challenge, one that we’ll have to be ready for in multiple ways. But he’s comfortable standing there in the pocket and then more than capable to extend plays when he feels like he has to.”
Terrell Williams: The Patriots’ defensive coordinator, who has been away from the team battling prostate cancer, was spotted in Foxboro this week, and Maye said that seeing him around has been a nice boost to the locker room.
“Coach T, it’s awesome seeing him around,” said Maye on Wednesday. “Anytime he’s around, it brings joy to us. It brings joy to the locker room. It brings joy to see his face, see how he’s doing, and just praying for him, and he’s continuing to fight. And what a story. It’s been something for us to rally around and somebody to care about. Another thing that’s just bigger than football, just props to him for, we’ve seen him in here a couple of times throughout the year. It’s been cool to see.”
Maye added that he got to know Williams’ son during training camp, and the two developed a relationship.
“Yeah, I got to know his son well. He was around training camp a lot, so I know he’s a big hockey player. It’s been cool for Coach T just … to someone on the different side of the ball to be able to relate with in life. We told our stories, get to know with each other early on in the year.”
“He had a great story coming from his background, and I think he relates to the players well. Everybody that I’ve talked to from Detroit and Tennessee, everybody loves him. He’s easy to care about. I think he’d be awesome to have around more, but obviously, he’s dealing with things that are, as I said, bigger than football, and just looking forward to having him back whenever that is. ”
Drake Maye: Following Sunday’s loss, especially given that the Patriots had the ball with two minutes remaining and a chance to go down and score for the win, Maye’s taken a fair amount of heat after coming up short.
From chants to MVP for most of their 10-win run, things have flipped a little bit. Many of the same ones who were chanting his name are now instead pointing to his inability to come up big in the fourth quarter.
Sunday’s loss hasn’t sat well with Maye, with the former first-round pick seemingly itching to get back out there. Fortunately, Sunday night’s game is one where a good performance would definitely be a nice step forward for him, and that’s what he’s currently focused on.
“Yeah, obviously, it stings,” said Maye. “It stings when you don’t come up on the winning side. But what I’ve tried to learn in this league is it’s on to the next week. Next week is just as important as the last week and the week before that.”
“It’s every week’s important and it matters. Just trying to play to my best ability and fix the things that I can fix, and make plays and try to fix plays that I wish I had back, and try to let it not happen again. But at the same time, I think there’s some good things we did from last game, but also just things we got to improve on to be better down the road and be better against the Ravens this week.”
“We have a tough challenge. They’re a good defense, and they’re a good football team with a great quarterback. So they’re a tough challenge. Just trying to learn every week and store things in my memory bank to use them again down the road.”
Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson got into a scuffle on the sideline last Sunday against the Bills in a play that resulted in a penalty and one that Vrabel called “a bad decision.”
On Saturday, the NFL apparently decided to make it a costly one.
Stevenson was reportedly fined $12,172 for taking a swing at linebacker Matt Milano, who gave him a big shot as he was going out of bounds.
The replay showed the hit was legal, but Stevenson seemingly wasn’t happy with it and went after Milano after it was over. Unfortunately, that unnecessary roughness penalty will now cost him, while Milano has apparently avoided any penalty following the incident.
“That’s a bad decision,” said Vrabel. “It’s what I told them in the moment. That’s what I’ll tell them again at 12:30. There’s nothing else. It’s what it is. He made a good play, good, positive play. I don’t think they did anything wrong. He hit them at the sideline and stood there, and he made a bad decision.”
Amari Gainer: After a frustrating performance on special teams, the Patriots shook things up by releasing linebacker Caleb Murphy, with the team adding both Chad Muma off of Indianapolis’ practice squad to the active roster, as well as signing linebacker Amari Gainer to their practice squad.
Gainer is a former teammate of Maye’s who started his NFL journey as an undrafted free agent with the Raiders in 2024.
“Yeah, I played with him my last year in college,” said Maye. “He’s a great guy in the locker room. He’s good on the edge. He’s fast. He’s played inside a little bit. He’s played on the edge. He played inside at Florida State, if I remember, in college. And now he moved to the edge once he got to North Carolina. So I know he was with Vegas, and good to see him back. And I think everybody’s just trying to see… just to help us, whether it’s on game day or throughout practice or whatever we can do. I know he’s going to work hard, and I know he’s got good work ethic.”
Maye Doesn’t Care About MVP: Maye was asked whether he cared about being in the MVP conversation. He told reporters that as nice as personal accolades might be, winning a Super Bowl is his focus for now.
“The MVP is obviously one of the big accolades for this league, and it’s something that it’s an honor as a player to earn the award and I respect all the past MVPs, but I think at the end of the day, winning the Super Bowl is the biggest thing,” said Maye. “And I think it’s what kind of makes this league go, is winning the big one, and that’s what you work towards, and that’s what this game is about. I love winning, and the personal accolades come with all that, but I’d rather win than win personal awards, and I hope people in that locker room, I know a lot of them feel the same way.”
Meier Set to Retire After 52 Seasons: Long-time director of scouting administration Nancy Meier is finally moving on, ending her incredible tenure here in New England.
Meier will reportedly let her contract expire next May, paving the way for her retirement. It’s something she said she’s not sure if she’s ready for, but she’s enjoyed her time here.
“Sometimes I feel like I’m ready and not ready all at the same time,” Meier told the Sports Business Journal of her impending retirement. “A lot of days, it hasn’t felt like work, and then some days it can feel a little overwhelming. But I just want to be sure that I’ve taken some time for myself and my family, to find things outside of Foxboro at 11 a.m. that I never know about.”
She’s handled everything over the course of her career, from scouting reports to becoming the first point of contact for players and coaches. Vrabel expressed how important she’s been, with Meier involved on not only a professional level, but also a personal one.
“She cares about people and gets to know them on a personal level,” Vrabel said. “Whether it’s a player, or a coach is dealing with a personal situation, she coordinates and handles travel, and she almost acts like a team mom in that regard. I think there’s a lot of trust that’s been built up over that many years.”
Best wishes to Meier, who walks away as the longest-tenured employee with the franchise, and has certainly meant a lot to the people she’s met, as well as those she’s had a positive impact on during her time here in New England.
Russ Francis/Chuck Fairbanks: The former Patriot tight end and head coach should be in the Patriots team Hall of Fame, and the fact that Francis isn’t is an absolute travesty. Francis and the Raiders’ Dave Casper changed how teams used the tight end position.
As Steve has written, this will be displayed in our Sunday posts until it happens. Casper is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Francis’ numbers stand up well against Casper’s, yet he isn’t even in the team’s HOF.
Heading into Sunday night’s showdown in Baltimore, New England finished Week 15 leading the NFL in first-half scoring (they’re now #2 behind the Rams after Thursday Night’s game), having scored 234 points, including the 24 they just put up against the Bills last Sunday.
However, the second half has been a completely different story. They’re currently 22nd in the league in second-half scoring, scoring just 148 points this season. Part of that can certainly be attributed to the fact they’ve held a lead for the majority of their 10-game win streak, which has seen them try and control the clock late in those games and certainly explains why they’re currently 30th in the NFL in 4th quarter scoring.
But the thing that’s probably the most concerning is the fact they’re not putting up points coming out of the locker room in the second half. In the third quarter over the last four games, New England has managed a total of just 10 points. They haven’t scored a touchdown in the third quarter since Week 11.
That was certainly the case this past Sunday, and Maye struggled down the stretch. Maye started out 9/11 (81.8%) for 108 yards while rushing for two touchdowns as New England scored 24 points and took a 24-7 lead into the locker room at halftime.
In the second half, it was a different story. Maye went 4-of-8 (50%) for 42yds and an interception in the third quarter, and then finished the 4th quarter just 1-of-4 for 5yds as the Bills eventually came roaring back and won 35-31.
Overall, he finished the second half just 5-of-12 (41.7%) for 47 yards with 0 TDs, and 1 INT.
First Half:
Total: 49/63 (77.8%) 575yds 3 TDs, 1 INT (114.0 RTG)
Patriots 3rd Down Totals: 13/22 (59%)
Patriots 4th Down Totals: 1/1 (100%)
Second Half:
Total: 36/60 (60%) 437yds 1 TD, 1 INT (81.0 RTG)
Patriots 3rd Down Totals: 9/26 ( 34.6%)
Patriots 4th Down Totals: 1/3 (33.3%)
What’s crazy is that under McDaniels in 2021, New England was actually 5th in second-half scoring and 10th in first-half scoring. They’re also pretty close in total points compared to where they were at this point in 2021, having scored 367 points through Week 15 compared to the 382 they’ve put up heading into tonight.
They face an interesting dynamic this weekend. For Baltimore, they’re essentially the polar opposite. The Ravens have struggled out of the gate, with the team currently ranked 25th ahead of Sunday’s game in first-half scoring (146 points), and were tied for 2nd with the Packers ahead of the Week 16 slate of games in second-half scoring (199 points).
That essentially means the Patriots are back in a similar situation to last Sunday. As important as getting off to a fast start on the scoreboard early might be, the second half, given their history, will likely be a battle.
“I don’t know that there’s one answer on that” said McDaniels on Thursday in terms of why they’ve struggled so much in the second half recently. “Certainly, I thought that guys really did a good job of executing certain things in the first half and made a lot of big plays. And then we never really got into a good rhythm in the second half, and that’s my job. So we’ll figure out why that was. I think there’s a lot of things you can think about and talk about, but whether it’s executing a specific play better or calling a different play, I think you always look back on those things and evaluate it from both lenses. Honestly, I think at this time of the year, when you play a team like that and get an opportunity to see the type of precision and level of execution and detail that all of us need to showcase in those types of games, it can be a blessing if we learn from it. I know that’s what I’m hard at work trying to do, and I think our guys are, too.”
As a result, this is a group that needs to be better offensively for 60 minutes against a tough Ravens football team that just ended a two-game skid by beating Joe Burrow and the Bengals 24-0 last weekend.
If you’ve followed the Patriots Snaps Tool that has been put together here on the site, I was able to do something cool and came up with a way to tie it into our Advanced Patriots Stats, creating something to search by on-field personnel. This will be coming soon to the site, but for now, it has allowed me to do some digging to look at how this offense has operated when Stefon Diggs is both on and off the field.
The numbers are pretty staggering. When Diggs is out there, the Patriots passing game has been fairly lethal with Maye completing passes at a much higher rate. When he’s off the field, things clearly tighten up and the numbers absolutely reflect that.
With Diggs on the field, Maye has completed 206-of-276 (74.6%) for 2,367 yards along with 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. When Diggs isn’t out there, Maye is just 84-of-132 (63.6%) for 1200 yards along with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Here’s a look at the numbers for the receivers and tight ends, which paints an interesting picture:
Drake Maye:
With Diggs: 206-of-276 (74.6%) 2,367 yards, 15 TDs, 5 INTs
Without Diggs: 84-of-132 (63.6%) 1,200 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTs
| WITH DIGGS | WITHOUT DIGGS | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | TGT | REC | % | YDS | TD | TGT | REC | % | YDS | TD | ||
| Stefon Diggs | 83 | 67 | 80.7% | 731 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| Hunter Henry | 49 | 33 | 67.3% | 410 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 59.1% | 218 | 2 | ||
| Mack Hollins | 30 | 21 | 70% | 252 | 1 | 26 | 18 | 69.2% | 229 | 1 | ||
| Kayshon Boutte | 23 | 20 | 87% | 355 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 66.7% | 156 | 2 | ||
| Demario Douglas | 17 | 12 | 70.6% | 181 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 66.7% | 209 | 2 | ||
| Austin Hooper | 9 | 7 | 77.8% | 98 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 90% | 115 | 0 | ||
| Kyle Williams | 8 | 2 | 25% | 45 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 98 | 1 | ||
What stands out is the fact that, save for Austin Hooper and Kyle Williams, every other receiver saw an increase in catch percentage, which more or less shows you how much things likely open up when Diggs is on the field.
When Diggs comes off, every other player saw a sharp reduction in their respective catch rates, although both Williams and Hooper still seem to have been able to slip behind defenders and make plays.
The third down totals are even more surprising when you look at Maye’s completion percentage:
Drake Maye 3rd Down Passing:
With Diggs On the Field: (136 Snaps)
Totals: 61/91 (67%) 812yds 6 TDs/2 INTs, 45 Passing First Downs
Without Diggs on the Field: (40 Snaps)
Totals: 9/18 (50%) 187yds 0 TDs/2 INTs, 4 Passing First Downs
The same holds true with his presence down in the red zone:
Drake Maye Red Zone Passing:
With Diggs On the Field: (86 Snaps)
Totals: 30/44 (68.2%) 196yds 10 TDs/1 INT, 15 Passing First Downs
Without Diggs on the Field: (58 Snaps)
Totals: 8/17 (47.1%) 65yds 4 TDs/1 INT, 6 Passing First Downs
Diggs has seen a drop-off in playing time in recent weeks. Since Week 11, he has gone from being a leading actor to being more of a role player.
Here’s a breakdown of the receiving snaps in recent weeks:
Week 11 vs Jets:
Mack Hollins: 57/67 (85.1%)
Stefon Diggs: 46/67 (68.7%)
Kyle Williams: 45/67 (67.2%)
Demario Douglas: 19/67 (28.4%)
Efton Chism 5/67 (7.5%)
Week 12 at Bengals:
Mack Hollins: 61/71 (85.9%)
Kayshon Boutte 57/71 (80.3%)
Stefon Diggs: 34/71 (47.9%)
Demario Douglas: 12/71 (16.9%)
Kyle Williams: 5/71 (7.0%)
Week 13 vs Giants
Kayshon Boutte: 49/65 (75.4%)
Mack Hollins: 49/65 (75.4%)
Stefon Diggs: 31/65 (47.7%)
Demario Dougals: 22/65 (33.8%)
Kyle Williams: 14/65 (21.5%)
Efton Chism: 2/65 (3.1%)
Week 15 vs Bills
Mack Hollins: 41/52 (78.8%)
Kayshon Boutte: 39/52 (75.0%)
Stefon Diggs: 26/52 (50%)
Demario Douglas: 10/52 (19.2%)
Kyle Williams: 5/52 (9.6%)
McDaniels was asked about Diggs’ recent drop-off in playing time, but he attributed it to a reduction in plays by the offense as a whole rather than something having to do with any other issue.
“No. There’s a lot of guys that got fewer snaps on Sunday because we didn’t earn enough snaps in the game,” said McDaniels. “And so, we look at it, Stef has done a great job. Whether it’s Stef, or TreVeyon [Henderson], who played in the ’20s on Sunday, I’d love for TreVeyon to play in the ’50s. But when you don’t have 50 plays, it’s hard for us to establish that volume for any one player.”
“But look, they all should want to play as many snaps as we have. And that’s an impossibility because I know we’re using everybody and trying to get contributions from all of them. But I think for us, and for me, specifically, let’s see if we can’t establish more rhythm on both this first half, second half, get the play count up into the high ’60s or ’70s. Now, I think the opportunities for every player on our team go up. No, but there’s no special reason for that.”
Sunday night, they’ll need the best from Diggs and everyone else as they look to win their 12th game of the season and hopefully maintain their lead over the Bills in the AFC East after this weekend.
Outside of the Patriots and Ravens, there are definitely some interesting matchups this weekend. Steve’s a little better at this, but here’s a quick rundown of my predictions for this week, so we’ll see how these all play out:
Thursday Night Football:
Seattle over LA Rams – 1-0
Saturday Games
Washington over Philadelphia – 1-1
Chicago over Green Bay – 2-1
Sunday Day Games:
Tennessee over Kansas City
NY Giants over Minnesota
New Orleans over NY Jets
Dallas over LA Chargers
Buffalo over Cleveland
Tampa Bay over Carolina
Cincinnati over Miami
Arizona over Atlanta
Denver over Jacksonville
Detroit over Pittsburgh
Houston over Las Vegas
Sunday Night Football
New England over Baltimore
Monday Night Football
Indianapolis over San Francisco
My Records for 2025:
Last Week: 8-8
2025 Season: 137-87
2024 Season: 171-101
2023 Season: 169-103
2022 Season: 155-116
2021 Season: 156-116
“Well, I think that what we try to do is we learn from every game, every opportunity, not just specifically the Buffalo game. There’s a lot of instances throughout the year that we’ve learned from, and last week’s game will be no different. And again, here, as it relates to play calling, I think every time in every game, offensively, defensively, special teams, my decisions, there’s always a decision that you want to have back and how it could have made this better, whether that’s as a player or as a coach. I’ve said this for as long as I’ve been able to say it as a head football coach. There is no perfect play. There are good calls, and there’s not so good calls. And again, my reason for saying this is you don’t want to have a call that gets in late. Those calls that are good, they’re in in a timely manner. The personnel group is in there. The players have repped it. They’ve seen it. They know they have answers for things that they could do. They have answers for things that were unscouted, which occur in every game.”
“Well, we always are kind of conscious, I think, of when teams are in that four-down area. Two minute, it’s being able to apply enough pressure in a timely fashion that doesn’t allow the quarterback to scramble and to gain big chunks. So again, we’ll have a plan for two-minute and obviously be ready and prepared for the times that they attempt to go for it on fourth down.”
“Well, I think that there’s always opportunities for us to win and match coverage. I think that there’s been times where we’ve won. [Stefon] Diggs won on third down, Mack [Hollins] won on an in-cut. I don’t have the numbers offhand analytically, but those are at least two. I’m sure that there’s times we’re in match that we’re covered, and hopefully, Drake can extend the play and cause some play extension or be able to scramble. So whatever coverage they’re in, we’re going to have to be able to have great spacing and route detail and zone, and then be able to have answers when we do get matched.”
They pushed the line of scrimmage, and we have to be able to stay gap sound and be able to build a wall. And again, when you get on the plus side of 50 sometimes in that short field position, they don’t mind sticking with the run and going for it on fourth down. Can’t let them run it in. And again, it’s a huge challenge this week. I’m sure we’ll see a lot of those runs that they did last week. See where we’re at with them. That’s usually what happens. So that’s what I told the team this morning.”
“He was very valuable, I think, to our success in Tennessee. Me personally, had a great relationship with Derek. He was always there. Seemed like when we needed to play, he made it. He was a great teammate. Any time that there was a message, he delivered that message in his own particular way. So again, he was somebody that I really valued in the six years that that I was there with him.” – Mike Vrabel on Derek Henry this week.
From our archive - this week all-time:
April 2 - April 17 (Through 26yrs)
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