The Patriots return home to Gillette Stadium after a very successful three-game road trip, during which they swept their opponents (Buffalo, New Orleans, and Tennessee) and are in first place in the AFC East, a game ahead of Buffalo.
They’ve now won four in a row to sit at 5-2 and are the #2 seed in the AFC, although it is still very early for that kind of talk.
Last week, they beat Tennessee 31-13, and after a slow start, buried the Titans behind outstanding performances by Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, and K’Lavon Chaisson.
Their opponent, the Cleveland Browns, stomped the Dolphins 31-6 behind an outstanding defensive effort and a three-touchdown effort by Quinshon Judkins.
FOX will broadcast this week’s game and can be seen locally on WFXT-TV Channel 25. Chris Myers will handle play-by-play duties with Mark Schlereth as the color analyst. Kristina Pink will work from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots’ flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2025 to analyze key matchups and predict the game’s outcome.
Some Quick Notes:
The Browns have one of the top defenses in the league, but they also have one of the worst offenses statistically. After starting Joe Flacco for the first few games, he was dealt to Cincinnati.
Dillon Gabriel has taken over at QB and has yet to turn the ball over. But he hasn’t exactly thrived either.
The Patriots offense will have their hands full with All Pro Myles Garrett who leads the Browns with five sacks and 10 QB hits, but the entire defensive line is very stout.
Now, we can examine some key matchups and determine who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs. Browns Front Seven — Edge Cleveland
The Patriots’ running game found some daylight last week in Nashville, rushing for 175 yards, led by Rhamondre Stevenson with 88 and Drake Maye with 62. But the team still struggles overall to run the ball, averaging just 103.4 yards per game, and ranks 32nd in rush EPA.
Cleveland’s run defense is fourth in the league, allowing an average of just 82.4 yards per game. Garrett, Maliek Collins, Mason Graham, and Alex Wright all do a great job of stopping the run.
This may be a pass to run week, where Josh McDaniels spreads the Browns defense out to open up some running lanes. This could be a week to see more of TreVeyon Henderson. Look for lots of motion this week.
Patriots WRs vs. Browns Secondary — Edge New England
The Patriots’ passing game is going strength-on-strength this week. Cleveland’s pass defense is #3 in the league, allowing just 173.7 yards per game. It stems from the front four getting pressure on the opposing quarterback. However, they have playmakers at all three levels, with CB Denzel Ward and S Grant Delpit.
The Browns have been susceptible to rollouts and bootlegs, with teams taking advantage of their aggressiveness. However, last week, Cleveland blitzed safeties off the edge on the bootleg side and forced Tua Tagovailoa into three interceptions.
The “X” factor this week is Garrett, who is outstanding, one of the top edge rushers in the league. It won’t be strictly him against Will Campbell; they will give him some help with Garrett, but he’s the guy. Collins is having a career renaissance in Cleveland; he’ll be going against rookie Jared Wilson.
This week feels like a big Stefon Diggs-type game, with Henderson possibly playing more in the screen game.
Next up is the Cleveland offense.
Browns RBs vs. NE Front Seven — Edge New England
The Patriots continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents’ running games, and with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore penetrating and creating havoc, teams haven’t been able to run effectively.
The Patriots have allowed just 77.1 yards per game. Although the Brown’s Quinshon Judkins is off to a very good start in his pro career with 420 yards after contact, the Browns have a less productive running game (28th) than New England’s, averaging just 92.4 yards per game.
Overall, Cleveland’s offense is 30th in the league; they are not prolific in running or passing the ball. Look for the Patriots’ interior linemen who are playing outstanding in their own right to disrupt the running game and try to force Cleveland to win by having Gabriel throw.
Browns WRs vs. NE Secondary — Edge New England
The Browns’ best weapons have been their two tight ends, Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku. That is an area that the Patriots have struggled to cover. They also have the dangerous Jerry Jeudy, but Gabriel has been one of the NFL’s worst passers on downfield throws, ranking last among qualified quarterbacks in average air yards per attempt (5.9).
Gabriel has completed just 11 of his 31 throws over 10 air yards, the worst completion rate in the league (35.5 percent).
The Browns have been trying to protect the rookie by running the ball and throwing short, quick passes to the tight ends. But the Patriots will try to disrupt Gabriel’s passing lanes, take away his quick throws, and force him to look downfield, where he has struggled.
A big matchup will be Harold Landry or K’Lavon Chaisson against tackle Cam Robinson, depending on how they match up. One thing to consider is that the Patriots have as many sacks (18) as the Browns.
Special Teams — Edge (Slight) New England
The Patriots’ special teams units have been impressive the past few weeks, and I see that continuing. Marcus Jones and Efton Chism have done an impressive job of returning punts and kicks. Andy Borregales continues a solid rookie season, Bryce Barringer has been solid, as have the coverage units. Brendan Schooler is having another outstanding season.
Cleveland’s STs have been much better this past month, and they are about equal with the Patriots across the board. Grant Delpit was the AFC STs Player of the Week against Miami. The Patriots get the slight edge for playing at home.
Next up, who wins and why…
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Prediction:
The Patriots need to protect the ball this week. It’s as simple as that. If they protect the ball, they’ll win. Cleveland forced four Miami turnovers last week, which led to 21 points in a 31-6 win. Cleveland’s offense is too limited to take over a game yet.
Drake Maye and the passing game will have a tougher matchup this week, but I look for Josh McDaniels to scheme some things against Jim Schwartz’s defense. And I expect the Patriots’ defense to end Gabriel’s turnover-free streak. They’ll look to take away his short passing lanes and force him to throw to the deeper parts of the field, where their cornerbacks are rounding into form.
The Patriots are the better team, and Mike Vrabel will have them prepared for this one. New England runs it streak to five in a row
Patriots 24-10
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
