The Patriots begin the 2025 season at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams were a disappointing 4-13 a year ago, and both have new regimes in place. Mike Vrabel has taken over the Patriots, while former Patriot coach Pete Carroll has taken over the Raiders. Both teams are expected to improve substantially this season.
CBS will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Spero Dedes will handle play-by-play duties with Adam Archuleta as the color analyst. Aditi Kinkhabwala will provide analysis from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots’ flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2025 to analyze some of the game’s key matchups and what to expect in the game’s outcome.
Some Quick Notes:
From Patriots.com: This year’s opening-day roster has 31 different players from opening day last year, and 27 different players from the end of the 2024 season.
The Patriots are 3-0 against the Raiders on opening day in the NFL; however, the latest opener between the two teams was in 2005. The Raiders are one of seven teams that have never won a game at Gillette Stadium, a record they aim to change this year.
So now we can look at some key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs. Raiders Front Seven — Edge New England
The Patriots’ running game is critical to Josh McDaniels’ offense in Week 1. The Raiders’ pass rush can stifle any offense, and there are still questions about the Patriots’ pass protection. The solution? Run the ball.
The Patriots have a lot of new faces on the starting OL, but they showed that they can run the ball. Left tackle Will Campbell is a road-grader in the running game, and that will be the game plan: run the ball, open up play-action passing, and slow down the pass rush.
The Patriots’ running game has three very talented players in returning veterans Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. But rookie TreVeyon Henderson is a potential home run hitter in the backfield, either running or receiving.
I look for them to run at Malcolm Koonce, the projected starter at right defensive end. He’s a very good pass rusher, but is coming off an ACL injury in September of last year and is just rounding into form. Plus, at 243 pounds, the Patriots should be able to move him off his spot.
Patriots WRs vs. Raiders Secondary — Edge Las Vegas
The Patriots’ passing game last season was abysmal. But they have made improvements across the board: a better OL, a true weapon out of the backfield, and some better receivers. They should be much improved in the passing game.
But there are still concerns with pass protection, and with Maxx Crosby and Koonce on the edges, the Raiders’ pass rush will be formidable. And it has to be, the Raiders’ secondary is considered (on paper) to be one of the worst in the NFL this season.
The pass rush of Vegas should keep the Patriots’ passing game at bay for most of this game. If the protection can hold up, there will be room for Drake Maye to take some shots down the field, with Kyle Williams or Kayshon Boutte.
But this feels like a keep the chains moving game this week. Slot WRs Demario Douglas and Efton Chism III will be the primary targets, along with Stefon Diggs. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper at tight end will attempt to threaten the seams.
Next up, the Raiders offense:
Raiders RBs vs. NE Front Seven — Edge Las Vegas
The Raiders drafted Ashton Jeanty, and he’s a highly talented running back who is a home run hitter in his own right. He was drafted sixth overall in this spring’s NFL Draft. He is a threat both running and receiving, and will be an immediate starter.
If the Patriots’ front seven has an issue, it is that they are lighter and may have problems stopping the run. If the inside DL Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have success penetrating up front, then LB Robert Spillane will have a big afternoon.
Raiders WRs vs. NE Secondary — Edge New England
The Vegas passing game has Geno Smith at the helm with All Pro TE Brock Bowers who had 112 catches in his rookie season for 1194 yards and five TDs. Jakobi Meyers and Amari Cooper will be targets 2-3 for Smith with Jeanty out of the backfield. Michael Mayer is the backup tight end, Dont’e Thornton is a rookie deep threat out of Tennessee.
The Patriots’ pass rush should be much improved this season with Harold Landry, K’lavon Chaisson, Keion White, and Elijah Ponder who will man the edges in passing downs. Barmore and Williams can push the pocket. They will keep Geno Smith in the pocket with no room to step up.
The secondary, even without Christian Gonzalez is still very good. Alex Austin and Carlton Davis will man the perimeter while Marcus Jones will play the slot. Jaylinn Hawkins and rookie Craig Woodson at safety.
Special Teams — Edge New England
The Patriots’ special teams units overall had a good summer, despite rookie kicker Andy Borregales having a bit of inconsistency, Bryce Barringer is an excellent punter and Brandon Schooler is an outstanding gunner.
The Raiders have excellent kickers of their own in Daniel Carlson and punter A.J. Cole who averaged 50.8 yards per punt last year. But I’m picking the Patriots here because they are at home and I expect their return game to continue an outstanding summer.
Next up, who wins and why…
The Patriots are still in the middle of a rebuild. They may compete for a playoff spot in 2025, but we are a long way from there yet.
Keys to the Game from a Patriots Perspective:
Run The Ball Effectively, especially on Early Downs — Look for the Patriots to try establishing the run, setting up the pass. All three running backs, Stevenson, Gibson, and Henderson should see work and this will be the way to wear down the Raiders’ defense and control the clock and tempo.
Limit Bowers — The biggest matchup will be against Bowers in the passing game. I think they’ll try to match up Austin with him; he is far too fast for a linebacker in coverage. The matchup will be a major one for the defense, and it rolls right into our last key matchup.
Get Consistent Pressure On Geno Smith— The Patriots’ pass rush needs to pressure Smith, forcing him to get rid of the ball quickly and potentially making him make mistakes. The interior pass rush is crucial from Williams and Barmore, as it prevents Smith from stepping up and provides the edge rushers with a more straightforward path to the QB.
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Prediction:
Week 1 Matchups are always among the most difficult to predict because there are so many unknown factors involved.
However, with both teams looking to right the ship with new coaching staffs in 2025, anything could happen here. I look for Drake Maye to have a solid but unspectacular game as the defense clamps down late for this one. Homefield advantage starts the Vrabel era off right. Patriots 24-21
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
Should be a great game to watch. Sounds like it could come down to execution, penalties, and play-calling.