Patriots – Jets Key Matchups Week 3, 2024: Big Divisional Game
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On a short week, the Patriots travel to the New Jersey Meadowlands on Thursday Night Football to take on their old rival, the New York Jets.
This is the first divisional game of the year for each team, and because it is the Jets, it is a big game for both teams. Both come in at 1-1, and whoever wins would have essentially a two-game lead over the other. Both would love to keep pace with the 2-0 Buffalo Bills for now.
Prime Video will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally on WFXT-TV Channel 25. Al Michaels will handle play-by-play duties, with Kirk Herbstreit as the color analyst. Kaylee Hartung will work from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2024 to analyze some of the game’s key matchups and what to expect in the game’s outcome.
So now we can look at some key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
The Patriots’ running game had 170 yards in the opener at Cincinnati and surprised many with 185 yards on the ground against a tough Seattle defense. Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson have been an excellent 1-2 punch on the ground.
San Francisco gashed the Jets’ run defense in the opener, but Gang Green was a bit better against the Titans last week. However, they have some injuries to monitor. CJ Mosely missed a chunk of the Titans game with a toe injury, and Jermaine Johnson may also be lost for the year.
Look for the Patriots to run right at the Jets defense this week. Those stretch zone runs will not be as effective against a speedy Jets defense. Something else to monitor: Rhamondre Stevenson already had a heavy workload in the first two weeks. It would lead to seeing some of that ease in a short week. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Kevin Harris activated from the practice squad to help in the running game.
The Patriots’ passing game has been mired in neutral thus far, and they have been unable to get the wide receivers involved. That’s bad news, considering how good the Jets’ secondary is.
A big part of the issue has been pass protection. Jacoby Brissett has been getting hit hard in the season’s first two games. Brissett has been pressured on nearly half of his dropbacks. Coupled with receivers unable to separate quickly off the line and him holding the ball too long, it has resulted in a floundering passing game.
The Jets have an excellent secondary and a very stout pass rush. Expect to see the Jets sell out on trying to stop the run and daring Brissett to beat them through the air. They’ll give Hunter Henry their attention as he’s been Brissett’s best weapon through the air.
Brissett has to get Demario Douglas more involved in the passing game, there are no two ways about it. He’s been open on occasion. And since the veterans haven’t been very effective thus far, would it be too early to see more of the younger WRs, Ja’Lynn Polk, Kayshon Boutte, and Javon Baker, this week?
Next up, the Jets offense:
The Jets have the dynamic Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen as a good one-two punch. Hall has the speed and athleticism to break big plays, and Allen is a 230-pound battering ram, which gives them a nice blend. However, the Jets haven’t been able to break out their running game as effectively as they want… yet.
The Patriots’ run defense picked up where it left off last week. After limiting Cincinnati to just 70 yards rushing, they made Seattle one-dimensional, allowing just 46 yards on the ground. However, the middle of the defense, already missing DT Christian Barmore, has now lost defensive captain and signal-caller Ja’Whaun Bentley with a torn pec muscle for the season.
Given how the Patriots have defended the run thus far in 2024, expect the Jets to utilize the short passing game to open up the running lanes for Hall and Allen. But the Patriots should be able to limit NY’s effectiveness in running the ball.
The Jets’ passing game has yet to get fully untracked yet, as they are currently 21st in the league, averaging just 181 yards through the air. But that shouldn’t last as they have a very talented skill position group, and they showed signs last week of that coming together.
Aaron Rodgers may not move around like he used to because of his Achilles injury, but he still possesses the smarts to decipher just about any defense. His arm is still there, and he’s shown good zip on the ball. With Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, and Allen Lazard, they have plenty of good weapons at their disposal. Having Hall out of the backfield is like having another WR and has to be accounted for this week.
Geno Smith gashed the Patriots’ pass defense last week. They tried to fool him with many different coverages and looks, and he shredded them. We’ll have to see if that was just an anomaly or a disturbing trend. After playing zone mainly in the first half, they went to more man coverage in the second half, something we’ll probably see more of this week.
Look for Rodgers to throw those quick slants he’s used for years. And if he recognizes one-on-one coverage on Wilson, look for the deep ball. The Patriots will try to match Christian Gonzalez on Wilson and have their hands full with Williams and Lazard. How they decide to match with Hall is going to be intriguing. They may need a safety on him.
The Patriots special teams were off to another good start on Sunday, but they allowed a 24-yard punt return and then had a 48-yard field goal blocked. Overall, Slye has been good, and Bryce Barringer has had a great start to the season, averaging 53.8 yards per punt, six inside the 20, with one touchback.
The Jets STs have gotten off to a good start. Greg Zuerlein is a very good kicker while punter Thomas Morstead is averaging 51.3 yards per punt with four inside the 20 with no touchbacks. Xavier Gibson is a dangerous returner.
The Jets get the slight edge here as they’ve had no hiccups.
The Patriots could have easily entered this game 2-0, but they failed at crunch time to hold onto their lead and lacked the clutch play to either put it away in regulation or win it in overtime. They are a tough, physical team and will need all of that, and more if they want to beat the Jets this week.
Run The Ball Right At the Jets, Use Play-Action — If the Jets’ defense has any weakness, it is the opponent running right at it. We saw that in Week 1, albeit with a very good 49ers’ offensive line. But that is the way forward.
Look for the Patriots to use six offensive linemen and pound the ball up the middle. Smash mouth is the way to go here. Stevenson may see a decrease in his workload this week. Expect to see more Gibson and possibly Kevin Harris.
Brissett has to get play-action passing going, especially with Demario Douglas involved much more. The Jets won’t respect the passing and will load the box to stop the run. If the Patriots want to win the game, they must be successful at hitting the chunk plays over the top to stop that.
Get An Interior Pass Rush, Not Just Keion White — The Patriots’ pass rush has been unacceptably dormant thus far, except for Keion White. White has been outstanding through the first two games, garnering four sacks. He should have continued success this week, going against LG John Simpson.
But they need to get after Rodgers and his diminished mobility by bringing pressure up the middle. With Bentley lost for the year, Raekwon McMillan will be the next man up. He has the mobility for the Patriots to use the A-Gap blitz to take away those easy passes that Rodgers has traditionally feasted on.
The Jets’ passing attack has not gelled yet, so the blitzing of Rodgers, usually a cardinal sin no-no, may work in Week 3.
Red Zone Offense Has to be Better — Last week, the Patriots offense was forced to kick field goals on drives that stalled on Seattle’s 10 and 11-yard lines. That can’t happen if they want to win this game.
Those two stops cost the Patriots eight points, which would have been the difference in regulation, and the game wouldn’t have gone to overtime. They need to bring in extra linemen and pound the ball straight ahead.
If they opt to use play-action in the red zone, the passes will have to be quick ones in the flat to get some quick yardage before the protection breaks down, especially against Quinnen Williams, a one-man wrecking crew against the Patriots last year.
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The Patriots had a 15-game winning streak against the Jets snapped in the finale last year. They’d like nothing better than to start another one and continue their eight-game winning streak on the road against the Jets.
The Patriots’ game plan will be simple: run the football smash-mouth style, control the clock and tempo, and take away Breece Hall in the running game. But after a week where they got gashed against Seattle, can they slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Jets enough to escape with a victory?
The Patriots have yet to get their wide receivers involved in a meaningful way. I think Rodgers will get the short, quick passing game going, Hall will have a big day as a receiver and the Jets, while they don’t cover a six-point spread, do enough to win a close hard-fought defensive game, which is a typical Patriots – Jets game.
Jets 20-16
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