The Patriots have their home opener of the 2024 NFL Season this Sunday at 1:00 at Gillette Stadium.
After a stunning upset of the Bengals behind a physical running game that gained 170 yards, the 1-0 Patriots have the chance to start the season 2–0 for the first time since 2019.
The Patriots were roundly considered to be one of the worst teams in the league, and while no one knows what the rest of the season will bring, It is encouraging to see the team with a chance to string a couple of wins together this early. But Sunday’s test will be a tough one.
The Seahawks, also 1-0, defeated the Denver Broncos 26-20, where they flummoxed rookie QB Bo Nix and held him to just 132 yards passing.
FOX will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally on WFXT-TV Channel 25. Kenny Albert will handle play-by-play duties, with Jonathan Vilma as the color analyst. Megan Olivi will provide analysis from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2024 to analyze some of the game’s key matchups and what to expect in the game’s outcome.
So now we can look at some key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs. Seahawks Front Seven — Edge New England
The Patriots’ running game was very impressive last week in Cincinnati, churning out 170 yards on the ground. Rhamondre Stevenson led the way with 120 yards on 25 carries. They could control the clock and the tempo and dominated the time of possession.
Seattle’s defense was stout against the run a week ago, holding Denver running backs to just 64 yards rushing, but they gave up 99 yards overall thanks to some Bo Nix scrambles. Their big men inside, Leonard Williams and Jonathan Hankins, are formidable, and the sledding will be tough.
The Patriots opted for a sixth offensive lineman 18 times last week to help the running game by crashing down on the edge. I expect that the Patriots will utilize that tactic again periodically. Seattle’s run defense was a trouble spot last season, but I expect them to be aggressive again this week in trying to stop the running game.
Patriots WRs vs. Seahawks Secondary — Edge Seattle
The Patriots’ passing game was not on par with last week’s running game. Jacoby Brissett passed only 24 times, completing 15 for just 120 yards. But despite only completing 15 passes, Brissett spread the ball around to seven different receivers, with no one catching more than three. Brissett also made some plays with his feet, something he’s not known for.
Seattle chased Bo Nix all game long on Sunday, sacked him twice, forced him out of the pocket several times, and held him to just 132 yards passing. The Seahawks’ secondary was outstanding, getting two interceptions and nearly having several more. Cornerback Riq Woolen and safety Julian Love had picks, while CB Devin Witherspoon nearly had another. They will present a very tough challenge.
The Patriots’ pass protection needs to be much better than it was a week ago. Brissett was pressured on 48 percent of his dropbacks, which is unmanageable over the course of a season. AVP’s system is a run-first offense using play-action to take shots down the field and attack the seams. I expect Demario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and K.J. Osborn to see more targets this week.
Next up, the Seahawks offense:
Seahawks RBs vs. NE Front Seven — Edge New England
Kenneth Walker leads the Seahawks in the ground game. Last week, he had 103 yards rushing on 20 carries, most of which came in a dominant 3rd quarter. Walker’s production is noteworthy despite missing nearly the entire fourth quarter. Zach Charbonnet is a good receiving back and is Seattle’s change-of-pace back.
The Patriots run defense picked up where it left off last year. They bottled up the Bengals’ new-look running game, holding them to only 70 yards overall. The big men upfront stuffed the run at the point of attack, allowing the linebackers to clean up. Ja’Whaun Bentley led the way with 12 tackles.
The Patriots’ run defense should be able to handle the Seattle ground game, aided by the fact that Walker will probably not be 100 percent physically due to an abdominal injury he suffered against Denver. The Seattle offensive line is hurting right now, too, especially on the right side.
Seahawks WRs vs. NE Secondary — Edge New England
The Seahawks’ passing game isn’t particularly explosive, although they have explosive players. Wide receivers Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and tight end Noah Fant give QB Geno Smith some excellent targets to throw the ball to. Smith can be dangerous with his legs as well. Lockett had some nagging injuries during training camp but looked like his usual self in the opener, catching six passes for 77 yards. His one-handed catch to seal the game was a beauty.
On Sunday, the Patriots’ secondary was outstanding against Cincinnati, holding Joe Burrow to just 164 yards while harassing him all day. Keion White led the way with 2.5 sacks, while CBs Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, and Marcus Jones were terrific. Gonzalez was hooked up with Ja’Marr Chase most of the day.
Seattle’s receivers present a tough challenge, but their offensive line has injury issues. RT Abraham Lucas is on PUP. George Fant was playing for him but he went down with a knee injury. Stone Forsythe would be the next man up. Guards Laken Tomlinson and Anthony Bradford struggled. Expect DeMarcus Covington to dial up the pressure on Smith to disrupt his timing.
Special Teams — Edge New England
The Patriots’ special teams units resembled the Patriot units we’re used to seeing. Unlike the past two years, they were strong across the board on Sunday. Kicker Joey Slye was perfect, going 3-3 on field goal attempts and made his only extra point. Bryce Barringer averaged 50 yards per punt and dropped three inside the twenty. Gunner Brendan Schooler had a couple of outstanding plays, while returners JaMycal Hasty and Marcus Jones had solid returns. Long snapper Joe Cardona had a forced fumble.
Seattle’s kicking game is solid, with Jason Myers and Michael Dickson. Laviska Shenault is the kick returner, while Dee Williams handles punt returns. Williams fumbled a punt last week but is elusive with great speed.
Next up, who wins and why…
The rebuilding Patriots may be a bit farther along in their progress than originally envisioned. Last week, they looked to be in mid-season form on defense. The offense still has a long way to go, especially in the passing game, but the running game’s success last week was a pleasant surprise. The keys to the game this week will seem very similar.
Keys to the Game from a Patriots Perspective:
Run The Ball Effectively — Look for the Patriots to run the ball with Stevenson again, but perhaps see more of Gibson in the running game this week. Hasty may see a couple of snaps to change the pace a bit.
The running game is essential for the Patriots’ offense, as the team is not built for playing from behind. Look for more of the 6th offensive lineman situations (13 personnel) again this week, trying to jump-start the running game.
Throw the Ball Much More Efficiently— Some leaky pass protection hampered last week’s passing game. This caused the receivers to cut their routes short, and several third-down attempts were short of the sticks. The pass protection has to be much better.
Look for the team to use play-action more on earlier downs and try to get the receivers some space to work in. Douglas, with his shifty moves and speed off the line, has to be more involved.
Keep Geno Smith in the Pocket and Squeeze It Closed—The Patriots’ pass rush has to be effective to throw off Smith’s timing in the passing game while not allowing the mobile QB to gash them by making plays with his feet. Rush lane integrity must be a priority, squeezing Smith inside the pocket. With the right side of Seattle’s offensive line hurting, look for the Patriots to attack there.
How the Patriots defend the talented Seattle receivers will be an intriguing chess match to watch. Jonathan Jones will probably (and should) be matched up with the perennially underrated Lockett. I think Gonzalez will cover JSN, and they’ll double Metcalf. But Marcus Jones is at a distinctive height disadvantage against Metcalf. Perhaps Alex Austin will see some action this week. It will bear close watching.
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Prediction:
The Patriots were flying around the field last week, which was very encouraging. Now they’re returning for their home opener. The crowd should be primed instead of predicting further doom and gloom.
Yes, the team is still rebuilding, and yes, they won’t be fighting for a playoff spot, but they have an opportunity to keep building. I circled this game months ago as a possible win in a daunting early-season schedule.
Seattle has to fly across the country for a 1:00 p.m. eastern start. The Patriots defense will play the Seahawks tough. They were sloppy a week ago and allowed two safeties. Expect some Special Teams fireworks, which will help the home team’s cause. Patriots 20-17
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
