MORSE: Patriots 2024 Schedule Analysis
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Patriots 2024 Schedule
1: at CIN
2: vs SEA
3: at NYJ, TNF
4: at SF, 4:05pm
5: vs MIA
6: vs HOU
7: at JAX, 9:30am (🇬🇧)
8: vs NYJ
9: at TEN
10: at CHI
11: vs LAR
12: at MIA
13: vs IND
14: BYE
15: at ARI, 4:25pm
16: at BUF
17: vs LAC, TBD
18: vs BUF, TBD
Looking at the schedule, the first 5 games are very tough. I see 1-4, maybe even 0-5 to start. Joe Burrow to start at Cincy is a tough hill to climb for the opener. SEA at home is a winnable game, but that depends upon how quickly the Offense gels.
It is a short week before their only Prime Time game on Thursday at NY Jets. The Pats get a few extra days to prepare for the cross-country trip to play NFC Champs San Francisco. The Patriots don’t get the benefit of back-to-back West Coast games to avoid that cross-country trip.
They fly back to face MIA, followed by HOU, both at home. Two more losses and the fans will be calling for Jerod Mayo’s head. Be prepared, and don’t be surprised by a 0-6 start.
Hey, let’s take a road trip to London for week 7 vs JAX. This could be a winnable game. JAX will face the Pats after already playing a game in London the week before. The Patriots don’t get the benefit of the bye after their trip across the pond.
No break with division rival NYJ at home. Week 9 takes them to TEN a team they are on par with. Another road game, this time at CHI with rookie Caleb Williams. This is another game they have a chance of winning. The Raiders come to town for Week 11. Road trip to South Florida on 11/24. Still hot but takes away the big heat advantage Miami enjoys early in the season. Week 13 brings the Colts to Foxboro.
Another game the Pats will have a decent chance to win. Take a dome team out into the elements. The Patriots get the bye week extremely late in Week 14 which doesn’t really help them much. They are pretty beat up at this point. Travel to ARI for their next opponent in Week 15. What the heck is this scheduling of Buffalo two of the last three games? The league takes away the weather advantage both teams possess by scheduling this game so late, never mind twice in three weeks.
Away at BUF, then home against the LA Chargers and finish with BUF at home. Overall, a pretty lousy schedule to go along with the 2nd most difficult Strength of Schedule based upon Las Vegas W/L odds.
SB Nation NFL Writer James Dator had this to say about the Patriots’ schedule, which they had ranked as the second worst screw job by the league. “Getting a solid start to the regular season is key for a team looking to grow. Getting some wins under your belt and the confidence that comes with it can set a season up to be successful or do the opposite.”
“If you look at how New England starts the 2024 season, it’s tough to find an odds-on win until Week 9 at the earliest. Look at how this team opens the year:”
“Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins, Texans, Jaguars, Jets”
“There’s just no room in this slate for the team to string some wins together, which can be really dangerous for a young team trying to build up a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye. I hate this schedule for the Patriots, and what it could lead to. “
The Patriots are underdogs in all 17 games this season.
Early prediction of 7-10 record is optimistic. I predict they will lose 6 straight to open the season followed by 5 straight wins. A loss in MIA and a win against Colts, the BYE and win against the Cards bring them to .500. It’s a mirage as they drop their final three to finish 7-10.
Here are the reasons why:
Head Coach – Jerod Mayo has no experience as a Head Coach and he is trying to start at the pinnacle of football the NFL. Yes, he will have help as far as game management and organizational management with Ben McAdoo at his side, but will that be enough? Can Mayo make in game or halftime adjustments? He has 24 coaches, 4 Strength coaches and 2 Special Assistants on his staff. Who will he be listening to?
Gelling of the coaching staff
The Patriots are installing a new Offense under the direction of 1st year play caller Offensive Coordinator Alex Van Pelt. Fortunately, Van Pelt will have Jacoby Brissett running his offense. Brissett played for Van Pelt at Cleveland and should be familiar with the concepts and execution of the offense. There are new coaches all over the offensive side of the ball. How will they mesh as a cohesive unit?
Question marks surrounding the Offensive Line
New line coaches Scott Peters and Assistant Robert Krugler will have their hands full putting a cohesive lineup together. Questions arise about the availability of former 1st round pick Guard Cole Strange. Atonio Mafi is filling in at Left Guard as OTAs are about to begin.
Free Agent Chukwuma Okorafor is working as the top left Tackle, moving over from the Right Tackle. Rookies Cardan Wallace and Layden Robinson have been working at Left Tackle and Left Guard. Both played the right side exclusively in college.
How will they make the transition?
Last season was a disaster for the O-line, with 9 different O-line combinations making a start for the Pats. Mac Jones was constantly under pressure. Can this group execute the stretch and zone blocking schemes that Van Pelt wants to run.
Running back is dangerously thin
Rhamondre Stevenson was overworked as the lead back. Ezekiel Elliot is no longer with the team. Antonio Gibson was signed as a Free Agent, but his role should be mainly as a third-down receiving back. Gibson averaged 4.1 yard per carry but also had 4 fumbles which shouldn’t be tolerated.
This may be a big opportunity for third-year back Kevin Harris. He also had 4.1 YPC but a much smaller sample size. Harris hasn’t fumbled on any of his 34 career carries.
Ja’Mycal Hasty is a smaller back that will be battling UDFAs Deshaun Fenwick and Terrell Jennings for a spot on the team. Alex Van Pelt’s Offense revolves around establishing a good running game that will allow his QB to make high percentage play-action passes.
Can the Defense remain one of the better units in the league?
In order for the Patriots to be in any games the Defense is going to have to shut down some very good QBs. They will see Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud, Justin Herbert, then Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa twice each.
Schedule quirks with other teams
The Steelers schedule is the oddest in the league with no Divisional games until Week 11 November 19th when they host the Baltimore Ravens. They follow that with a game at CLE TNF Nov 18, Dec 1st @CIN, Dec 8 home against CLE, Dec 15th at PHI, Saturday Dec 21st at BAL, Wednesday December 25th they host KC and finish with CIN at home either Jan 4th or 5th. Brutal!
Arizona plays 4 teams coming off their Bye Week including the Patriots.
Atlanta and Carolina came away with the easiest schedules.
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