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(PHOTO: Dec 31, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) calls out signals prior to the snap during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports) Some Patriots thoughts on this Tuesday:
1) Bailey Zappe’s performance on Sunday against the Bills was certainly disappointing, especially as the New England Patriots came into this game with a chance to ruin Buffalo’s season.
Coming off of last Sunday’s win in Denver, Zappe appeared poised to potentially allow the Patriots to finish off what would have been a surprising season sweep of the Bills, after New England had previously beaten them earlier in the season back in Week 13.
Instead, the second-year quarterback couldn’t build off of his solid outing the week before and ended up taking a significant step back during the Patriots’ 27-21 loss on Sunday.
Overall, Zappe finished the afternoon 16-of-26 (61.5%) for 209 yards with three interceptions, with each of his turnovers killing their early momentum after Jalen Reagor’s opening kickoff return for a touchdown that gave them an early 7-0 lead.
Unfortunately, that’s about the most positive play they had in the first quarter. The offense had four turnovers in its first six offensive possessions, with Zappe throwing two interceptions on the club’s first three drives, along with a fumble by Pharaoh Brown on their fourth possession, leading to Buffalo’s second field goal of the day as they built a 13-7 edge.
Two drives later, it all came apart on a 3rd-and-11 from their own 34. After it was obvious that Zappe and the receivers were not on the same page ahead of the snap, rather than call a timeout, Zappe went ahead and ran the play anyway.
The result ended up being a pick-six after the second-year quarterback fired a quick throw to Reagor, who wasn’t expecting the pass and never even turned back around, with the ball landing in the hands of Bills defensive back Rasul Douglas. Douglas then took it back 40 yards the other way for the touchdown.
That put the score at 20-7 with 12:36 left to play in the second quarter, and that would be all the Bills would need to hold New England off.
Zappe did manage to answer on their next possession after a 48-yard catch-and-run by Kevin Harris set up a 17-yard touchdown run by the young QB, who spotted an opening to the left and took off running before beating everyone to the pylon to pull New England back to within six at 20-14.
But that ended up being one of the few bright spots in a game where they dug themselves a hole too deep to come back from.
What was painful was the fact that the Bills appeared well-prepared for this one. The Bills clearly knew what was coming on early downs, with Buffalo causing problems for Zappe on most of New England’s first down plays.
Zappe finished just 3-of-10 throwing the football on first down on Sunday, which played a role in the offense ending up in a fair amount of long-yardage situations. Zappe ended up completing just 1-of-6 on first down in the first half, along with his two interceptions.
Bailey Zappe First Half Totals:
Total: 9/17 (52.9%) 113yds 0 TDs 3 INTs
*1 Rushing TDBy Down:
1st: 1/6 (16.7%) 8yds 2 INTs
2nd: 6/7 (85.7%) 96yds
3rd: *2/4 (50%) 9yds 1 INT
*1 First Down— PatsFans.com (@PatsFans) December 31, 2023
On each of those plays, Buffalo jumped the routes and came up with two turnovers. The first came on a quick throw over the middle from Zappe to Mike Gesicki, which saw the tight end take a hit as the ball arrived, with the football ending up deflected into the hands of a defender.
The second came on a quick outside pass from Zappe to DeVante Parker, and again, Buffalo jumped the route and stepped in front of the throw.
As a result, it was clear the Bills saw enough on film where they knew what was coming on those early downs, and unfortunately, the results ended up being a pair of turnovers and an inability to get much going in that first half.
Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK)
2) In the second half, it was a different story. New England adjusted, but an inability to finish off drives ultimately cost them.
It started when they tried to answer the Bills’ touchdown drive at the start of the second half, with New England marching from their own 25 down to the Buffalo 34 yard line. The Patriots found themselves in long-yardage late in that drive after Zappe was dropped for a 5-yard loss thanks to a sack on first down.
That left him forced to settle on a short throw to Tyquan Thornton for six yards on a 3rd-and-15, setting up a field goal attempt from 53-yards out for rookie kicker Chad Ryland.
Ryland would go on to push that one wide left, his second miss of the afternoon after he missed an earlier 47 yard attempt with time winding down in the first half. However, his second miss ended up being waived off, thanks to the fact the Patriots were called for a delay of game penalty.
Instead, fellow rookie Bryce Baringer came out to punt and pinned the Bills in at their own 12-yard line.
On their next possession, New England finally got themselves back in the end zone. Zappe made a nice throw to Reagor that picked up 39-yards, with another catch and run for 17 yards by Demario Douglas – along with a penalty by the Bills – setting up a ferocious 6-yard touchdown run by Ezekiel Elliott. On the play, Elliot blew threw the middle of the line and through the arms of Bills’ defenders as he burst into the end zone, which cut the lead to just six points at 27-21 with 11:01 left to go in the game.
But after the defense pulled off yet another stop, the offense mustered a 3-and-out and Buffalo ended up moving the chains twice on their next possession to run out the clock.
Overall, Zappe actually had a decent second half after he completed 7-of-9 for 96-yards. Unfortunately, by then, the margin for error was so thin that they needed a couple of big plays that they just couldn’t come up with late to pull off the comeback.
In the end, the miscues were the difference, and despite a solid effort by their defense, it was just too much to overcome.
“Obviously, a terrible first 20-minutes,” said Belichick after the game. “I thought our guys really hung in there and battled away, but obviously just gave them too big of a lead and couldn’t quite get it back.”
3) Bill Belichick’s comments after Sunday’s game when it came to Trent Brown were fairly telling.
“We activated the players who wanted to play,” said Belichick when asked about his left tackle.
That essentially tells you that Brown’s time in New England is already over, despite there still being one more week left to play in the 2023 regular season.
Brown’s injury history this season is pretty extensive, with the veteran being listed every week this year with the exception of Week 4. He’s missed a team-high 12 practices, which started out after he was listed with an illness in Week one, followed by the veteran suffering a concussion against the Eagles that saw him miss the next week against Miami.
Since then, he’s been limited or missed practice in every one of the team’s sessions going back to Week six.
There’s no question he’s been banged up at various points this season, but the amount of time he’s missed, especially late in the season where things like a “hand” injury popped up, is enough to raise an eyebrow.
Patriots salary cap expert Miguel Benzan pointed out on Sunday that with Belichick making Brown inactive ahead of their meeting against the Bills, it removed any shot Brown had at earning his 65% playtime incentive, which cost him $750,000. That cost him the final available milestone he had of the $6.5 million in incentives that were available to him in 2023, leading to what will likely be his final season in New England:
Trent Brown's incentives
750K 65% Playtime
750K 70% Playtime
1M 75% Playtime
1M 80% Playtime
1M 85% Playtime
1M 90% PT
750K 95% PT OR Pro Bowl original ballotIn early November I tweeted that Trent Brown could only earn the 65% playtime incentive. Today ended that chance
— Patscap's Patriots Cap Space Number is in Bio (@patscap) December 31, 2023
A report by AtoZ Sports’ Sophie Weller revealed that there has apparently been some frustrations on Brown’s side due to the fact the club talked about potentially extending him beyond this year, but a deal never materialized.
Given how the season unfolded and how Brown handled himself, it appears the Patriots will turn the page this offseason and hopefully look for a better and more reliable long-term solution moving forward.
4) It’s hard not to come out of this game being incredibly impressed with the play of Keion White, who really made life tough on Josh Allen all day.
Allen was spotted a couple of times trying to escape the pocket but clearly saw White, and it left the Buffalo quarterback having to adjust as the two sparred back and forth throughout this one.
White did a great job, forcing several errant throws, and he’s a significant part of the reason why the defense held Allen to 15-of-30 (50%) for just 169 yards passing, along with no touchdowns and an interception.
The rookie ended up not really showing up on the stat sheet after registering just three tackles and one quarterback hit, but it’s safe to say his role on Sunday in holding Allen down was significant. It’s just too bad the offense couldn’t hold up its end of the deal.
5) While many continue to point blame at Belichick in terms of the miscues, it’s tough to pin this one on the head coach for how Sunday’s game played out.
Belichick has said repeatedly that they obviously don’t coach turnovers, and the club remains solid in the penalty category heading into this final weekend. They were flagged just twice on Sunday, with the delay of game penalty that negated the failed field goal attempt, along with an unnecessary roughness penalty on Jalen Mills, which came late in the first quarter.
Many people likely aren’t aware of this, but the Patriots currently have just 85 penalties through sixteen games, which, barring a meltdown this Sunday, should see them finish with their lowest total over the last two years.
In fact, the 85 penalty total is the lowest number in sixteen games for the team going back to 2020 when they finished with 62, and lower than 2019 (94), 2018 (93), 2017 (95), 2016 (93), 2015 (96), 2014 (120). The lowest total from there was in 2013 (69).
Overall, when people look back at this season, however it all plays out, calling this club an undisciplined group is something that should be the last thing they’re remembered as.
In the end, they should be remembered for what they really are, and it’s simply a team that’s just devoid of talent on the offensive side of the ball, which unfortunately falls on Belichick’s shoulders.
Whether or not he’s given one more opportunity to run it back remains to be seen, but for now, the approach remains the same.
“I would just say whatever success I have had, I’ve tried to go about my job the same way every week. Win, lose, good years, bad years, whatever they are,” said Belichick during his weekly interview on WEEI. “Just, each week, get ready to go for that week, do the best you can to help your team win, and after that game, move on to the next one. And at the end of the season, that’s the end of the season.”
With one game left, this one will soon be over, leading to what should definitely be an interesting offseason.
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