MORSE: Patriots Week 17 Preview: Buffalo Bills
(PHOTO: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports) 🕑 Read Time: 7 minutes
Posted Under: Patriots Commentary
(PHOTO: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports) 🕑 Read Time: 7 minutes
New England Patriots > Patriots Blog
(PHOTO: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports) The Bills sit at 9-6 and are in great position to make the playoffs. They have won three games in a row against some impressive opponents. The Bills won at Kansas City, beat the Cowboys at home and then went out to LA and beat the Chargers. They are peaking at the right time and a far cry from the team that lost to the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 7.
The Patriots are a different team now as well. Bailey Zappe has given the team some stability at QB while the Patriots Defense has legitimately ascended to one of the best in the league. This was Bill Belichicks plan all along, establish a dominant Defense that would keep the team in games while the Offense matures.
Unfortunately, that plan has been delayed by the poor play of the Offensive line due to the numerous injuries. Last week’s starting Offensive line combination was the 8th different starting line of the season. It wasn’t until the coaches inserted rookie Atonio Mafi and Trent Brown back into the lineup could the team perform. The line play cost them a good young Quarterback in Mac Jones who is now broken and may never recover from this mismanagement.
| OFFENSE | 3 WR 1TE | |||
| STARTER | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | |
| QB | Josh Allen | Kyle Allen | – | – |
| RB | James Cook | Latavius Murray | Ty Johnson Q | Damien Harris IR |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | Trent Sherfield | ||
| WR | Gabe Davis | Deonte Harty | ||
| WR | Khalil Shakir | Justin Shorter IR | – | – |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | Dawson Knox | Quintin Morris | Zach Davidson IR |
| FB | Reggie Gilliam | |||
| LT | Dion Dawkins | Ryan Van Demark | Tommy Doyle IR | |
| LG | David Edwards | Connor McGovern | ||
| C | Mitch Morse | Ryan Bates | – | – |
| RG | O’Cyrus Torrence | Germain Ifedi | – | |
| RT | Spencer Brown | Alec Anderson |
In the Sports Illustrated QB Rankings Josh Allen is ranked 3rd. NFL.com has Allen ranked 4th with the following stats: 15 games, 340 of 511 for 66.5 Completion %, 3,778 pass yds, 7.4 ypa, 27 pass TD, 15 INT, 413 rush yds, 13 rush TD, and 4 fumbles. Nick Shook writes “You’re going to want me to ding Allen for the Interceptions he threw trusting his arm too much and attempting a pass that would be impossible for most QBs on Earth. I won’t do that, though, because Allen followed a similar route when he threw a Touchdown pass to Gabe Davis. The one difference: He targeted the outer third on the pass to Davis instead of attempting to throw it down the middle of the field. This is part of what Bills fans sign up for when Allen is their quarterback, and in Week 16, it worked out. If it continues to work, the Bills will find themselves at the end of a table they’ve run right to the playoffs.” Which QB will show up on Sunday?
James Cook has had a breakout sophomore season. We all knew that he could catch coming out of Georgia. Though 15 games he has 208 carries for 1,038 yards rushing and a 5.0 average, 2 TDs and 3 Fumbles. Receiving he has 40 catches on 47 targets for 433 yards, (10.8 avg) 4 TDs. Cook is the man since Damien Harris went on IR. Latavious Murray is the backup with 78 carries for 300 yards (3.9 Avg), and 4 TDs. He is a bigger back and gets the short yardage touches.
Stephon Diggs is a generational talent and a Prima Donna. He sulks when he doesn’t get his touches. This season he has 95 catches on 145 targets for 1,070 yards (11.1 avg), and 8 TDs. Gabe Davis has been a disappointment with 43 catches on 75 targets for 725 yards, (16.9 Avg) 7 TDs. He is closer to a 50/50 guy when targeted and is losing playing time to Khalil Shakir. The 2022 5th round (#148) pick out of Boise State, has outplayed Davis in the second half of the season. Shakir’s stats are 29 catches on 35 targets, for 467 yards, (16.1 Avg), and 2 TDs. If you have read my articles, you know that I love Deonte Harty from Assumption University. The diminutive (5’6”, 170 lbs) wideout is a former All-Pro and Pro Bowl Punt Return Specialist (2019). He set numerous NCAA Division II records at Assumptions for Punt and Kick Returns. I’ll sum it up quickly. He holds the NCAA record (regardless of division) as college football’s all-time leader for combined touchdown returns (14). I had the pleasure of watching him for 4 years at Assumption and every time he touched the ball, he was likely taking it to the house.
The Bills drafted a great young Tight End in Dalton Kincaid. The 2023 1st round pick (#23) has had a terrific rookie season with 62 catches on 76 targets for 502 yards (8.1 avg), and 2 TDs. Dawson Knox has been very serviceable at TE for years. He has 20 catches on 33 targets for 164, (8.1 avg), and 1 TD.
The Offensive Line is anchored by Left Tackle Dion Dawkins. The two-time Pro Bowler was a 2017 2nd round (#63) selection out of Temple. The 6’5” 320lb behemoth is 29 in his 7th year. Next to him at LG has been Connor McGovern who has started all 15 games coming into Sunday. ESPN has David Edwards listed as the starter. Edwards is a 2019 5th Round selection (#169) originally taken by Los Angelas Rams. He has not started one game this year. McGovern does not appear on the injury report. The 2019 3rd round (#90) selection was a Cowboys selection who signed as a Free Agent with Buffalo this year. The Guard out of Penn State is 6’5” 318 lbs. and has started all 15 games. Center is veteran Mitch Morse. The 6’6 (very tall for the position) 315 lb. Center from Missouri was a 2015 pick by Kansas City in the 2nd Rond (#49). He was signed away from KC in 2019 as a Free Agent. Morse is old for an O-lineman at age 31. He was selected to the Pro Bowl for the first-time last season. Right Guard O’Cyrus Torrence out of Florida. The 2023 2nd round (#59) selection played three years at Louisiana-Lafayette before finishing his college career at Florida. He was selected as 1st team all-conference at both schools. Guard is a weakness of the Bills with McGovern ranked # 44 and Torrence #66 by Pro Football Focus. Compare this to Cole Strange (#26) and Sidy Sow (#36). Torrence ‘s rating isn’t even starter quality since there are only 64 starters in the league. Right Tackle has Spencer Brown manning the position. He is a large man at 6’8, 315 lbs. The 2021 3rd round pick (#93) played for Northern Iowa. He has started all 15 games this year and 39 of 42 games in his career. Brown has a 69.2 rating and is ranked #33 among tackles. Buffalo has had the same starting 5 on the line for every game this season and they have played 96% of the snaps. Having that consistency along the offensive line goes a long way. Consequently, the Patriots just used their 8th different starting combination.
| DEFENSE | Base 4-3 D | |||
| STARTER | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | |
| LDE | Greg Rousseau | AJ Epenesa Q | Kingsley Jonathan | – |
| LDT | Ed Oliver | Poona Ford | Jordan Phillips IR | – |
| RDT | Tim Settle | Linval Joseph | DaQuan Jones IR | |
| RDE | Von Miller | Leonard Floyd | Shaq Lawson | – |
| WLB | Tyrel Dodson | Tyler Matakevich | – | – |
| MLB | Terrel Bernard Q | Baylon Spector | ||
| SLB | Dorian Williams | Matt Milano IR | – | – |
| LCB | Taron Johnson | Dane Jackson | Cam Lewis | Tre’Davious White IR |
| SS | Jordan Poyer | Taylor Rapp | – | – |
| FS | Micah Hyde Q | Damar Hamlin Q | ||
| RCB | Rasul Douglas | Christian Benford | Kaiir Elam | Siran Neal |
The Bills Defense can put pressure on the QB. Their Pass Rush Win Rate as a team is ranked 4th per ESPN. The Defense starts with RDE Von Miller. The 2011 1st round pick #2 overall was taken by Denver where he played 11 seasons. He was traded in 2021 and then signed as a Free Agent by Buffalo in 2022. He is 34 and not the player he once was but is still a dominant edge player. The highly decorated player was a two-time Super Bowl champ and one of the few Defensive Players to be selected Super Bowl MVP. He has been 1st team All-Pro 3 times and 2nd team 4 times. Let’s add 8-time Pro Bowl selections to that list. Can the future Hall of Famer still play. In 11 games he has no sacks and just 3 tackles! LDE’s Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa can get after the QB too. Rousseau has 5 sacks, Epenesa has 6.5, Leonard Floyd has 10.5 sacks, and Ed Oliver 8.5 from the inside. Tim Settle also puts pressure on the QB by pushing the pocket and taking up space.
Inside Linebacker Terrell Bernard leads the team in tackles with 124 tackles. Bernard was a 2022 3rd round (#89) pick out of Baylor. Tyrel Dodson starts on the outside at WLB. He went undrafted in 2019 out of Texas A&M. He has 66 tackles this season and has started just 8 games. Dorian Williams was a linebacker I liked coming out for the draft last season. The 3rd round (#91) pick from Tulane is 6’1” 228 lbs. and runs a sub 4.5 40-yard dash. He has added 40 tackles from his SLB position. The play of Williams has really lessened the blow of Matt Milano’s season ending injury.
The Bills made a great trade before the deadline acquiring Rasul Douglas from the Green Bay Packers. The Bills lost Tre’Davious White to IR and replaced him with Douglas who is ranked by PFF as the #8 CB in the league this year. Douglas is signed through next year at a reasonable $7M. Taron Johnson is the other CB. The 2019 4th round selection (#121) played at Weber State. His 85 tackles are tied for 2nd on the team. Johnson is ranked 13th by PFF. There may not be a better pair of safeties in the league than Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Poyer, ranked 16th by PFF, was a 2013 7th round selection (#217) by Philadelphia that has worked his way to the top of the league. The Oregon State grad has been the starting SS with Buffalo since 2017. This season he has 85 tackles. The 32-year-old safety has been selected as an All-Pro in 2021 and Pro Bowl in 2022. Hyde was a 2015 draft pick in the 5th round (#159) by Green Bay. He has contributed 49 tackles this season. His overall ranking by PFF is #44. In 2017 and 2021 he was selected as a 2nd team All-Pro and in 2017 he was a Pro Bowl selection.
| Special Teams | ||||
| STARTER | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | |
| PK | Tyler Bass | – | – | – |
| P | Sam Martin | – | – | – |
| H | Sam Martin | |||
| PR | Deonte Harty | Khalil Shakir | Nyheim Hines O | – |
| KR | Ty Johnson Q | Deonte Harty | Khalil Shakir | Nyheim Hines O |
| LS | Reid Ferguson | – |
The Bills Special Teams are ranked 12th in Kickoff and Punt Returns. As I stated before Deonte Harty can take it to the house from anywhere on the field and is a dangerous return man. Tyler Bass is ranked as the #6 kicker in the league. Punter Sam Martin is not good and is ranked 31st.
What to expect on Sunday. Buffalo has a lot to play for and they have been hot. That loss in Foxboro is enough motivation to stir them up. I look for a competitive game from the Patriots but I think the Bills have too much going for then playing at home. Weather must always be a concern in Buffalo.
The Patriots made an interesting waiver wire claim this week of cornerback Marco Wilson. The 2021 4th round selection (#136) was waived by Arizona. He had outstanding testing numbers at his Pro Day. The Florida product ran a 4.36 40, 6.83 3-cone drill, 43.5” Vertical Leap and 11’04” Broad Jump. Arizona expected him to be their #1 CB this season. He has had a disastrous season giving up over 700 yards in pass receptions through 7 games and was subsequently benched. Given the state of the Patriots secondary he was worth the no-risk look. His 6.83 3-cone would be the best on the Patriots team.
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