MORSE: Dolphins Control the Draft and Patriots

The Dolphins are in control of what the Patriots might be able to do on draft night. When Miami pulled off the stunning back-to-back trades, they loaded up on draft capital by trading from #3 to #12. Then they used some of that draft capital to move back up to #6 with the trade with Philly. The position of #6 is critical. When the trade was made everyone speculated it was to ensure they would get one of the top three receivers.

In my opinion, they moved to #6 to block the Patriots from getting a QB. The general consensus is the 1^st three picks are QBs. Atlanta holds the cards at #4 and could trade the pick to a team other than Carolina that needs a QB. Since Carolina is in the same division as Atlanta, Atlanta will not help Carolina. Carolina has 23 yo Sam Darnold, but if they are not convinced he is their franchise QB, then another QB may be in their future in the first round. The Patriots won’t pay the ransom the Falcons are asking. Atlanta may take all world / once in a lifetime TE Kyle Pitts from Florida.

Atlanta could trade their pick to Washington, Denver or other QB needy teams and the cost would be similar to what SF paid for the trade with Miami. That would be 4 QBs in a row. The Bengals won’t take a QB and probably won’t trade down. I think they are likely to take Penni Sewell OT Oregon. There sits Miami and one or two QB’s still available.

What was Miami trying to accomplish by trading up to number 6? They wanted one of the top three WR’s. They could trade down again, and still, get one of them. By trading down they might prevent the Patriots from getting one of the top five QB’s. Yahoo posted a story the Dolphins were shopping the #6 pick. They could theoretically drop again in the draft and still get a top-three WR.

Note: This assumes the Patriots have all 5 QB’s ranked in the top 10. This is highly unlikely. The Patriots’ strict, rigid and unwavering evaluation system takes into consideration the level of competition and the number of games played as criteria. That should eliminate Trey Lance. Most pre-draft analysts have Mac Jones rated in the lower half of the first round. The anticipation of trades and movement up and down the 1^st round will make draft night fascinating.

Let’s continue to run out draft scenarios. Atlanta takes Pitts, Cinci takes Sewell and Miami takes Ja’Marr Chase. If SF has taken Mac Jones at number 3 then Justin Fields is sitting there at #7 with Detroit’s pick. This is the most logical spot for the Patriots to trade up for a QB. Will BB pull the trigger, unlikely again. Detroit needs WR help after losing their top two receivers. I would think this is a spot for Jaylen Waddle. Carolina is up next at #8. They just made the Sam Darnold trade. They don’t need a QB. Rashawn Slater the consensus number two OT is the pick here. Number 9 is Denver and they need a QB. Fields or Lance? I think they like Lance’s potential a little bit more than Fields. That will leave Fields for the taking. Dallas needs defensive help at #10 and you could see the 1^st DB off the board here. The NY Giants, like Dallas, won’t trade with Washington, so that threat is eliminated. The G-men are our next best trade partner for Justin Fields. A trade from 15 to 11 isn’t too hard to accomplish. Perhaps #15 and 2022 #2 would do it.

JC Jackson Signs

Jackson signed his restricted Free Agent Tender a week earlier than he needed to. What does that indicate? He didn’t receive any offers. This is probably due to teams being up against the salary cap. The other possibility is that teams didn’t want to help out the Patriots by establishing a number for the Patriots to use as a basis for a long-term contract. The problem now is that both starting CB’s are Free Agents in 2022. I think DB is now a priority for the Patriots Draft. There is a possibility that Stephon Gilmore may still be traded and there is just as much a possibility he could be extended.

Pete Schrager’s Mock has Patriots Trading Up

Schrager of NFL Network’s Good Morning Football released his Mock Draft 2.0 on Tuesday that has the Patriots moving up … to draft a Wide Receiver! They trade with #12 Philly to take Heisman Trophy winner Devonta Smith. No question that Smith is a top receiver, but I question his durability. According to Albert Breer, the NFL did get height and weight at Combine interviews and Smith was 6’ 0.2” 166 lbs. Red flags came up for me when he wouldn’t do any field activities or measurements at his Pro Day. His finger injury from the Championship game is still purple and bothering him. He only did a few routes with Mac Jones at the Pro Day. His estimated speed is only 4.49. It seems Philly isn’t sold on Smith either.

Evan Lazar had an interesting piece on the 16 WRs drafted since 2000 that weighed 170 or less. Only one WR has made it at that was Desean Jackson who ran a 4.5. Smith wouldn’t do any measurables at his Pro Day.

The Draft Scout – NYG GM Dave Gettleman has never in his 8 years as Giants GM traded down in the Draft. It may be very hard for the Giants to pass on Edge Rusher Kwitty Paye of Michigan. This item was part of the 32 Rumors and Notes from The Draft Scout.

The Draft Scout is sponsoring our Draft Contest with a prize of a one-year subscription. https://www.thedraftscout.com

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About Mark Morse

Merrimack Valley native and lifelong fan of the New England Patriots. My earliest memories of the Patriots were attending as a child with my dad, the off-season practice at Phillips Academy. I was at the Patriots game at Harvard Stadium in 1970 where Bob “Harpo” Gladieux was called out of the stands by the stadium announcer over the PA to play in the game. Analyzing the draft since ESPN first started to televise it in 1980 and former writer for the Lowell Sun Newspaper.

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