Prediction:
 The return of Julian Edelman to the Patriots offense gives them a big boost this time around. (USA TODAY Images) |
This one was the only conference championship game that was a correct fit as the two teams were the best in the AFC all season. The contrast is perfect as the Broncos were doing it with defense and the Patriots with offense. New England stumbled down the stretch with injuries and it cost them a home game on Sunday…something that may come back to haunt them.
With the additions of Edelman and Amendola this time around, it should make the Patriots offense much harder to stop, especially on third down. With Edelman in the lineup the team was right around 50 percent, and after he went down with his foot injury that fell to around 33 percent. Last week it was right back up to 50 percent again. The Patriots were awful in Denver back in November on third downs, putting too much pressure on the defense.
The other thing Edelman brings which we mentioned above is the quick passing game. Last week Brady’s 10 completions to Edelman averaged 1.57 seconds from snap to throw. The six completions to Gronkowski outside the numbers were an even faster 1.48 seconds (courtesy of Mike Giardi CSNNE). This should give the Patriots the ability to move the chains this time. The injury to Chris Harris is the “X-Factor” here. He can cover the short underneath routes and match Edelman’s quickness. If he can’t go, putting Aqib Talib on him would be a win for the Patriots…Talib’s strength is covering the bigger, more physical WRs, not the smaller, shiftier ones.
The Broncos will try to run those stretch plays where they have a big cutback lane in the running game that they’ve been so successful with. That will accomplish two things; it get the linebackers to cover more ground in space and it will allow the tight end (Owen Daniels) more room to run in.
The Broncos, with Manning’s arm strength an issue, don’t want to get into a shoot-out situation. Rather they’ll want to run the ball effectively and limit Brady’s snaps, and control the clock. He’ll lean on Sanders on both the short passing game and take a few shots when they become available.
One interesting tidbit this week, Brady in the postseason has faced the #1 defense three times, all of them on the road. The Patriots are 3-0 in those games and in all three instances went on to win the Super Bowl. Patriots 27-20
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
