NFL Week 14 Previews, Predictions, TV Info and Picks ATS
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🕑 Read Time: 7 minutes
New England Patriots > Patriots Blog
The fourth quarter of the 2015 NFL regular season kicked off with a rare quality Thursday night game between two playoff contenders. The injury-riddled Minnesota Vikings literally fumbled away an opportunity to pull off a road upset, losing 23-20 to the Arizona Cardinals. Minnesota lost three fumbles, including a Dwight Freeney strip sack of Teddy Bridgewater with five seconds to play which denied the Vikings of a chance to the the game and send it to overtime. Minnesota fell a half game behind Green Bay in the NFC North while Arizona became the second team to clinch a playoff spot with their seventh straight win.
There are plenty of pivotal games to the NFL playoff picture this week besides Thursday night’s contest, starting with New England at Houston on Sunday night. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati should not only be a very entertaining game to watch, it will play a critical role in the Bengals’ quest for a first round bye, and whether or not the Steelers make the playoffs. Other important games include Oakland at Denver, Dallas at Green Bay, Buffalo at Philadelphia, Washington at Chicago and Indianapolis at Jacksonville.
To check and see what games are being broadcast where you will be Sunday, please check J.P. Kirby‘s television maps at 506 Sports.
And for comparison’s sake, here are the Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Lines for NFL Week 14 that were published a week ago Thursday, on December 3rd.
★★★★★
7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers at 10-2 Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Bengals -2½ (opened at -3½) . . . . over/under 50½ . . . . Cin -140, Pit +120
Since losing 16-10 to the Bengals in Week 8, Pittsburgh’s offense has been the most potent group in the NFL, averaging 36 points per game. The Steeler defense has been hit or miss though, alternating between allowing 35+ points and ten or fewer points. Ben Roethlisberger should be able to take advantage of a banged up Bengal secondary; CB Adam Jones (ankle) is doubtful, slot corner Leon Hall (back) missed last week’s game and is questionable and free safety George Iloka is also questionable with a groin injury.
Prediction: Steelers 31, Bengals 24
Pick: Steelers +2½ (one unit) . . . . over 50½ . . . . Steelers +120
★★★
6-6 Buffalo Bills at 5-7 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Pick’em (opened w/Eagles -1) . . . . over/under 47 . . . . Buf -110, Phi -110
Look past the final result of last week’s upset over the Patriots and you will find a Philly team that barely won at home despite being gifted with not one, not two, but three non-offensive touchdowns. The Eagle offense has scored 20 or more points only once since October 19, and will be no match for the Buffalo defense.
Prediction: Bills 20, Eagles 13
Pick: Bills pk . . . . under 47 (two units) . . . . Bills -110
★★★★
6-6 Atlanta Falcons at 12-0 Carolina Panthers
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX
Panthers -8½ (opened at -6½) . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . Car -380, Atl +320
CB Josh Norman has been fantastic all season covering opponent’s top receivers, and one of Atlanta’s biggest problems is lack of production from players other than WR Julio Jones. Carolina has the only defense with more interceptions (19) than touchdown passes allowed (16), limiting opponents to an NFL-best 6.1 yards per pass attempt and a 58.4% completion rate (4th). The Falcons have lost five in a row and have not scored more than 21 points in regulation since Week 4.
Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons 13
Pick: Panthers -8½ (one unit) . . . . under 46½ . . . . Panthers -380
★
4-8 San Francisco 49ers at 2-10 Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX
Browns -1½ (opened as pick’em) . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . Cle -125, SF +105
Cleveland bottomed out with a 37-3 home loss last week to become the first team to officially be eliminated from the playoffs. The Browns have surrendered 30+ points in each of their last five games while scoring ten or fewer points in four of their last six games. I’ll go with Blaine Gabbert over Johnny Manziel in a game that nobody should willingly watch.
Prediction: Niners 24, Browns 17
Pick: Niners +1½ . . . . under 41½ . . . . Niners +105
★★★
5-7 Washington Redskins at 5-7 Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX
Bears -3½ (opened at -1) . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . Chi -185, Was +165
Both teams are coming off disappointing Week 13 home losses; it will be interesting to see how both clubs respond. Washington blew a chance to take a one-game lead in the NFC Least with a loss to Dallas, giving the Cowboys just their second victory since Week 2; the Bears knocked themselves out of contention for a wild card spot with an overtime loss to the inept 49ers.
Prediction: Bears 24, Skins 21
Pick: Skins +3½ . . . . over 43½ . . . . Skins +165
★
4-8 Detroit Lions at 4-8 St. Louis Rams
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX
Lions -3 (opened w/Rams -2½) . . . . over/under 41 . . . . Det -170, StL +150
Despite the presence of RB Todd Gurley, the St. Louis offense is woefully inept, ranking 31st in total offense (296 yards per game), 31st in scoring (15.8 ppg) and 31st in offensive efficiency (18.8 yards per point). Maybe Jeff Fisher will convince his buddies on the competition committee to outlaw the forward pass in the off-season.
Prediction: Lions 24, Rams 10
Pick: Lions -3 (two units) . . . . over 41 . . . . Lions -170
★★★
3-9 San Diego Chargers at 7-5 Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Chiefs -10½ (opened at -7½) . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . KC -550, SD +425
The Kansas City defense is playing exceptionally well; last week they racked up four sacks and forced three turnovers while notching their sixth straight victory. Kansas City ranks second in the NFL with a plus-13 turnover differential; they have two or more takeaways in seven straight games and have only turned the ball over three times since Week 4. This is a really tough spot for Philip Rivers to be in, facing an aggressive Chief defense with one of his tackles (D.J. Fluker) out with a concussion and another (King Dunlap) slowed down with an ankle injury.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Chargers 16
Pick: Chargers +10½ . . . . under 44½ . . . . Chiefs -550
★★★★
4-8 New Orleans Saints at 6-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Bucs -4½ (opened at -2½) . . . . over/under 50½ . . . . TB -220, NO +190
Using the analogy of the 16-game NFL regular season consisting of four quarters, the Bucs have gone 1-3, 2-2 and 3-1 as we enter the fourth quarter. Tampa finally has Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins on the field at the same time, to face a shockingly bad New Orleans defense. The Saints rank last in touchdown passes allowed (35) and 30th in interceptions (6), for a jaw-dropping minus-29 TD:INT differential. QB Jameis Winston has steadily improved after a rough start to the year while New Orleans is now without RT Zach Strief and RB Mark Ingram.
Prediction: Bucs 31, Saints 21
Pick: Bucs -4½ (two units) . . . . over 50½ . . . . Bucs -220
★★★
6-6 Indianapolis Colts at 4-8 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Jaguars -1 (opened w/Colts -1½) . . . . over/under 46 . . . . Jax -120, Ind +100
WR Allen Hurns (concussion) returns to the lineup for Jacksonville. He and Allen Robinson should be a able to exploit a suspect Indy secondary; Vontae Davis has been so-so in coverage this year and Greg Toler is less than 100%, missing practices with a knee injury. Jacksonville’s pass defense is pretty bad, but Matt Hasselbeck is dealing with neck and rib injuries suffered last week against Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Jaguars 27, Colts 20
Pick: Jaguars -1 . . . . over 46 . . . . Jaguars -120
★★
3-9 Tennessee Titans at 7-5 New York Jets
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Jets -7 (opened at -6) . . . . over/under 43 . . . . Jets -340, Ten +280
The Jet defense has not been as stout as it was in the first month of the season, but gets a bit of good news with Darrelle Revis (concussion) returning to play. Tennessee’s offense racked up 42 points and 467 yards of offense last week, but that says more about Jacksonville’s D than the Titans’ offense; Tennessee is scoring only 20.4 points per game (26th) and their minus-8 turnover differential is the third worst in the NFL.
Prediction: Jets 23, Titans 17
Pick: Titans +7 . . . . under 43 . . . . Jets -340
★★★★★
10-2 New England Patriots at 6-6 Houston Texans
Sunday, December 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC
Patriots -3½ (opened at -3½) . . . . over/under 45 . . . . NE -180, Hou +160
While the focus of attention has been injuries to fantasy football stars for New England, the reality is that the last two losses were anomalies, caused primarily by rare special team miscues. On the other hand Houston’s defense is underrated and one of the very best in the league, and more than capable of taking advantage of a porous Patriot offensive line. Perhaps the worst time to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is when so many are doubting them.
Prediction: Patriots 21, Texans 20
Pick: Texans +3½ . . . . under 45 . . . . Texans +160
★★★★
5-7 Oakland Raiders at 10-2 Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 13 at 4:00 pm ET on CBS
Broncos -6½ (opened at -6) . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . Den -270, Oak +230
Oakland’s run defense has been decent of late, but their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. Denver’s defense is strong enough that it will force the raiders into predictable play calling on third and longs, resulting in decisive turnovers.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Raiders 20
Pick: Raiders +6½ . . . . over 43½ . . . . Broncos -270
★★★
4-8 Dallas Cowboys at 8-4 Green Bay Packers
Sunday, December 13 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX
Packers -6½ (opened at -5) . . . . over/under 42½ . . . . GB -280, Dal +240
Dallas finally won a game without Tony Romo and as a result the Cowboys find themselves just one game behind in the beleaguered NFC East. Green Bay won’t need another Hail Mary from Aaron Rodgers to defeat a Dallas team playing on the road off a short week.
Prediction: Packers 27, Cowboys 16
Pick: Packers -6½ . . . . over 42½ . . . . Packers -280
★★★
7-5 Seattle Seahawks (-4½) at 4-8 Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX
Seahawks -11½ (opened at -3½) . . . . over/under 40½ . . . . Sea -600, Bal +450
Seattle is on a roll, having won five of their last six games. After outlasting Pittsburgh and then crushing Minnesota 38-7, the Seahawks have overcome a 2-4 start to put themselves in position for a wild card berth. Give an effort sticker to Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh for keeping his team competitive despite a laundry list of injuries; the Ravens are 3-2 in their last five games, with the two losses both by only two points.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Ravens 13
Pick: Ravens +11½ . . . . under 40½ . . . . Seahawks -600
★★
5-7 New York Giants at 5-7 Miami Dolphins
Monday, December 14 at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN
Giants -1½ (opened as pick’em) . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . NYG -125, Mia +105
This could actually be an entertaining game for those who like Arena Football-style scoring; these two underachievers both have pathetic pass defenses. The Giants are allowing 315 passing yards per game (last), 7.9 yards per pass attempt (27th) and a completion rate of 67.1% (27th); Miami is giving up 256 passing yards per game (22nd), 7.7 yards per pass (25th) and 24 passing touchdowns (25th).
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Giants 24
Pick: Dolphins +1½ . . . . over 46½ . . . . Dolphins +105
And just for fun, here are the prop bet odds that were available when the NFL schedule was released more than seven months ago:
Vikings at Cardinals (-5½)
Falcons at Panthers (-3½)
Saints (-2½) at Buccaneers
Lions at Rams (-1½)
Patriots (-1½) at Texans
Colts (-6) at Jaguars
Raiders at Broncos (-10½)
Chargers at Chiefs (-2)
Titans at Jets (-4)
Seahawks (-1) at Ravens
Steelers at Bengals (-1)
49ers (-2½) at Browns
Bills at Eagles (-3½)
Redskins at Bears (-4)
Cowboys at Packers (-4½)
Giants at Dolphins (-3)
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