Dolphins at Patriots - Stats, Preview and Prediction

The 6-0 New England Patriots host the 3-3 Miami Dolphins in the 100th meeting between the AFC East rivals on Thursday night. Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game rather than gross totals. Per-game stats rather than gross totals are used because that makes the rankings more meaningful, considering other NFL teams have played a different number of games thus far due to bye weeks.

When: Thursday, October 29 at 8:25 pm ET

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA

Television: CBS; announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Weather: Mid-50s with 10-15 mph winds; rain expected Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but that is expected to end by noon on Thursday.

Odds: The Patriots opened as 10½ point favorites a week ago, prior to last weekend’s games. By Monday the line had dropped to 7½ in most venues, but by late Wednesday night most establishments set their line at eight points; the low was 7½ (Westgate and several others) while the high was 9½ (SportsBet.com). The over/under was pretty much evenly split at 50½ or 51, with Bovada the high at 51½. Typical money lines had the Patriots at -400 and the Dolphins at +320.

Patriots Offense versus Dolphins Defense

Scoring: Pats 35.5 (1st); Dolphins 22.8 (15th)

Yardage: Pats 411 (2nd); Dolphins 370 (21st)

First Downs: Pats 25.2 (1st); Dolphins 21.5 (25th)

Yards per Play: Pats 6.2 (3rd); Dolphins 5.4 (12th)

Yards per Drive: Pats 39.4 (2nd); Dolphins 31.6 (11th)

Points per Drive: Pats 3.33 (1st); Dolphins 1.91 (16th)

Drive Success Rate: Pats .789 (1st); Dolphins .705 (17th)

Points per Play: Pats .539 (2nd); Dolphins .332 (14th)

Touchdowns: Pats 4.0 (1st); Dolphins 2.7 (15th)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Pats 3.3 (1st); Dolphins 1.7 (13th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Pats 71.4% (1st); Dolphins 58.8% (20th)

Plays per Game: Pats 65.8 (12th); Dolphins 68.8 (26th)

Third Down Conversions: Pats 6.2 (7th); Dolphins 5.3 (21st)

Third Down Percentage: Pats 50.7% (1st); Dolphins 39.0% (18th)

Punts per Score: Pats 0.4 (1st); Dolphins 1.2 (14th)

Rushing Yards: Pats 83.7 (31st); Dolphins 129.3 (30th)

Yards per Rush: Pats 3.92 (23rd); Dolphins 4.08 (17th)

Passing Yards: Pats 327 (2nd); Dolphins 241 (14th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Pats 8.2 (5th); Dolphins 7.2 (12th)

Completion Percentage: Pats 68.9% (5th); Dolphins 59.0% (6th)

Passer Rating: Pats 113.2 (3rd); Dolphins 86.6 (11th)

Complete Passes: Pats 28.8 (3rd); Dolphins 20.8 (8th)

Incomplete Passes: Pats 13.0 (17th); Dolphins 14.5 (7th)

Quarterback Sacks: Pats 2.7 (23rd); Dolphins 1.8 (22nd)

Sack Yardage Lost: Pats 15.2 (19th); Dolphins 12.7 (23rd)

Dolphins Offense versus Pats Defense

Scoring: Dolphins 24.5 (9th); Pats 21.0 (12th)

Yardage: Dolphins 366 (10th); Pats 359 (15th)

First Downs: Dolphins 20.2 (17th); Pats 21.3 (21st)

Yards per Play: Dolphins 6.0 (7th); Pats 5.4 (13th)

Yards per Drive: Dolphins 32.6 (10th); Pats 31.9 (13th)

Points per Drive: Dolphins 1.84 (17th); Pats 1.85 (14th)

Drive Success Rate: Dolphins .695 (15th); Pats .711 (24th)

Points per Play: Dolphins .399 (6th); Pats .317 (11th)

Touchdowns: Dolphins 3.2 (5th); Pats 2.5 (13th)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Dolphins 1.5 (20th); Pats 1.8 (19th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Dolphins 56.3% (17th); Pats 64.7% (28th)

Plays per Game: Dolphins 61.3 (27th); Pats 66.2 (20th)

Third Down Conversions: Dolphins 3.3 (32nd); Pats 6.0 (27th)

Third Down Percentage: Dolphins 28.6% (32nd); Pats 42.9% (28th)

Punts per Score: Dolphins 1.2 (24th); Pats 1.2 (12th)

Rushing Yards: Dolphins 117.5 (14th); Pats 110.3 (19th)

Yards per Rush: Dolphins 5.34 (1st); Pats 4.50 (24th)

Passing Yards: Dolphins 249 (13th); Pats 248 (18th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Dolphins 7.5 (15th); Pats 7.1 (11th)

Completion Percentage: Dolphins 62.7% (21st); Pats 62.9% (12th)

Passer Rating: Dolphins 91.9 (13th); Pats 89.2 (14th)

Complete Passes: Dolphins 23.0 (16th); Pats 24.0 (21st)

Incomplete Passes: Dolphins 13.7 (23rd); Pats 14.2 (8th)

Quarterback Sacks: Dolphins 2.7 (23rd); Pats 3.5 (4th)

Sack Yardage Lost: Dolphins 25.2 (28th); Pats 23.2 (2nd)

Turnovers

Patriot Giveaways: 0.5 (1st); Dolphin Takeaways: 1.3 (19th)

Dolphin Giveaways: 1.5 (15th); Patriot Takeaways: 1.3 (19th)

Penalties

Penalties: Patriots 7.2 (12th); Dolphins 8.5 (28th)

Penalty Yards: Patriots 64.7 (21st); Dolphins 69.3 (25th)

Opponent Penalties: Patriots 8.5 (4th); Dolphins 8.2 (7th)

Opponent Penalty Yards: Patriots 85.5 (2nd); Dolphins 76.5 (6th)

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency – Total DVOA: Patriots 39.7% (1st); Dolphins 2.2% (14th)

Team Efficiency – Total DAVE: Patriots 35.5% (1st); Dolphins 1.9% (15th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 30.6% (2nd); Dolphins 4.6% (10th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -0.7% (11th); Dolphins 2.7% (15th)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 8.4% (1st); Dolphins 0.3% (17th)

The decision to replace Joe Philbin with Dan Campbell has certainly revitalized Miami. The Dolphins have been revitalized in the last two games, outscoring their opponents 82-36. The question is whether the Fins are as good as those numbers indicate, and indicative of a team that is as good as its off-season hype – or whether that has more to with the quality (or lack thereof) of those two opponents.

The Titans and Texans are a combined 3-10, but even so, the turnaround is eye-opening. In their first four games Miami was 1-3, scoring 15.8 points per game, rushing for 69 yards per game and totaling less than 315 yards of offense per game. In the last two games the Fins are averaging 41 points and over 468 yards of offense per game, running the ball for a whopping 214 yards per game, and have quickly climbed back into the AFC playoff picture.

Without a doubt Miami poses a serious threat to the Patriots. Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh have the ability to wreak havoc on a New England offensive line depleted by injuries. Bill Belichick does a fantastic job of defensive game planning to neutralize an opponent’s primary weapon, but the Dolphins are extremely balanced on offense with RB Lamar Miller (572 yards from scrimmage, 3 TD), WR Jarvis Landry (472 yards from scrimmage, 3 TD) and WR Rishard Matthews (438 yards receiving, 4 TD) making it difficult for a defense to focus on just one player.

Watching replays of Miami on Game Pass, I am not impressed at all with their linebackers. This should be an area that the Patriots can exploit in both the running game with LaGarrette Blount, and of course with their quick timing routes to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. More importantly I like Bill Belichick to be better prepared at home than a brand new coach on the road facing his first nationally televised game, on a short week to prepare for the first team he will have faced with a winning record.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Dolphins 20

Take the Pats minus the points.