BradyFTW!

If we were dealing with 2003 rules, I think you could possibly make the case for kicking off if you had an excellent D and the wind strongly favored one side of the field. Post-2004, however, the rules are just slanted too heavily in the offense's favor to make this much of a debate.

SoCal Bong

And that has worked 3 times out of 22 (13% success rate)

Hail Mary plays work about 15% of the time when there is less than 50 yards to go. Should a team be running this play on every down of the entire game once they cross mid-field? It has a higher success rate.

Again, you have to look at the numbers and assess the probability of each outcome, not just the best case scenario.

No offense to you or anyone else who is making these blanket statements, but if you read this analysis you will understand why it's not as simple as you might think primarily due to probability of scoring and field position.

I know I shouldn't care whether anyone is being open-minded about this topic or not but I already know that I am going to be quite annoyed by anyone throwing a fit once a coach (maybe BB) makes this decision which I do believe is going to happen, maybe soon.

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PlainOldEd

according to whom?

SoCal Bong

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PlainOldEd

OK, this chart clearly proves nothing. First of all it indicates that you have a better chance from 80 yards than from 60, and even if you were going by this chart it drops below 15% at around 20 yards, at 50 yards the curve looks to be at about 2%.

TPL

But if you read this analysis you will understand that:

100% of the coaches 22 of 22 (including our very own BB) after winning the coin toss have elected to receive the ball in OT.

59.1% of these coin toss winners have won the game.

I can see no logical, statistical or emotional circumstance where a coach would ever elect to kick off in OT.
Under extreme weather circumstances a coach may elect a goal to defend.

And I will be annoyed if BB ever does make this decision.
(unless it works and we win, then it will be okay)

PatsDeb

Defer in overtime?! Fuggedaboutit!

SoCal Bong

You're focusing on the wrong thing. I could have used any example of things you don't do when the success rate is that low.

In any case, the chart does support my 15% success rate if you know how read it. Take all the data points up to 50 yards and you take the average which works out to 17% but round down for conservatism and margin of visual error. Since I mentioned always throwing the Hail Mary after crossing midfield, ignore everything beyond 50 yards.

1-10 yards: 41
11-20: 32
21-30: 3
31-40: 12
41-50: 0
Average: 17.6%

"clearly proves nothing" - why does everything have to be absolute?

This is a topic that can be debated and therefore is open to varying opinions. Do you really think the author of the article would have spent the time and effort doing the analysis if it were so clear cut?

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jbb9s

Sample size of 22 games with effective 2.5 game outcome differential? Statistically insignificant.

Also, strip out all the wins that didn't occur in the first possession and it becomes even less relevant.

TPL

What is relevant is that you need to score to win.
In order to score you need to possess the ball. (with the exception of a safety)

What ever decision is made to increase your chances to possess the ball, I'm in favour of.