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Old 07-20-2012, 09:52 AM   #11
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Default Re: The 4 year rookie contract- good or bad?

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Originally Posted by mayoclinic View Post
All correct. The optional 5th year for 1st round picks doesn't preclude teams from subsequently using the franchise tag designation on them. So although Nate Solder's contract is nominally for 4 years, the Pats could exercise the optional for a 5th year and then use the franchise tag on him after that. And, unlike the franchise tag, there's no restriction on the number of players that a team can use the 5th year option on - the Pats could use it on both Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, for example, if they so chose.

As you note, it's still very unclear whether and how teams will use this. It may make sense to sign long term deals after 3 years with guys who have proven to be foundational players. But the 5th year option gives teams some control over 1st round picks simply leaving as UDFAs after 4 years.
Good point on the tag and tag potential. Not terribly cost effective, but then neither were top tier 6 year rookie deals under the old formula. This makes it a selective choice after having 3 full years to assess your selection. Doesn't work as well for the 2nd rounders you used to be able to control for 6 years between 5 year contract and tag, but most of those guys if really worth it were chirping in year 4 like Deion anyway - who always took issue with the length of his rookie deal.

I think the league also likes the idea that no team can drive the market by doing uber early deals heading into year 3 of rookie deals, everyone has to wait it out now.
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Old 07-20-2012, 09:57 AM   #12
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Default Re: The 4 year rookie contract- good or bad?

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I actually think almost every team will do it because there is almost no negative consequence to picking up the option. The way it works is that that the top 10 salaries, as you stated, are based on the transition tag calculation in the new CBA (meaning a 5 year average and percentage of cap). The remainder of round 1 will see it calculated for number 3-25. The tag number is based on year 4 dollars rather than year 5 so it doesnt inflate (or deflate if the cap does fall for the next few years) for the year the way the other tags would.

The reason I say most teams will pick it up is because the only guarantee that is included for year 5, initially, is an injury guarantee. Career ending injuries are so rare that its a low risk proposition to let the player play out year 4 and then decide. The skill and cap guarantee comes at the start of year 5 so picking up the option lets teams defer the real choice until that limbo period after the Super Bowl but before the new LY begins. Some guys wont get picked up (Jamarcus Russell/Vernon Gholston types) but I have a feeling everyone else will.
Thanks Jason. I didn't bother looking up the complex details but I didn't know that the guarantee was only for injury until the 5th league year. That makes it more paletable than simply guaranteeing that level of money to a youngster two years early. If injured in the interim they've earned the protection. If their skill falters in the interim (perhaps due to lack of focus) they haven't. They still have to earn it in year 4. Cap is a little dicey, but then again that's what extensions are for managing in the alternative.
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