Brady hit once every 8.5 attempts since mid 07 - Page 5 - New England Patriots Forums

PatsFanSince74 · 09-09-2009, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBruinz

Sorry, but its dead on accurate... Just because it flies in the face of the article doesn't change reality.

not to put too fine a point on it, but it flies in the face of the data. please see my response to Patchick.

***Deus Irae*** · 09-09-2009, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanSince74

not to put too fine a point on it, but it flies in the face of the data. please see my response to Patchick.

It really doesn't. We went over this on a ridiculous thread which dealt with this a little while back. This article is simply skewing the data a bit more by leaving out a big chunk of games, so that it's really only saying "When you play the better pass rushing teams, you get hit more" as if that's stunning news.

Eppy · 09-09-2009, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob0729

A part of the reason Brady gets hit so much is because of Brady. Brady is willing to sacrifice himself to hold onto the ball for an extra second or two to allow the receiver get open. There are many times he holds onto the ball forever with great protection, but even great protection can work so long.

It is part of what makes Brady great, but there is a risk to it.

As a Steeler fan, this sounds really familiar.

PatsFanSince74 · 09-09-2009, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patchick

But don't you assume that every QB will be sacked significantly more in the playoffs because they're playing, on average, significantly better defenses? So you have to compare Brady's playoff stats to other QBs' playoff stats.

responding to you and Box. Great questions! Here's what the data say:

I looked at the 12 teams who made the playoffs in the 2007/08 season. In total, the sack rate for the 12 principal starters (the Redskins had two different starters for most of the regular season and the playoffs) was virtually identical for the Playoffs as for the regular season.

Regular Season: 5.1%
Playoffs: 5.5%

When you look a little more deeply at the data, of the 12 starters, Brady's Playoff stats stand out like a sore thumb. His Playoff sack rate (eight sacks) of 6.8% was 95% higher than his regular season rate of 3.5%, while the overall Playoff Average (above) was just nine percent higher than the Regular Season. The only QB's to come close were Vince Young, whose playoff stats were 52% higher and Eli Manning whose playoff stats were 44% higher. Phillip Rivers and Jeff Garcia were sacked at rates that were roughly half of their regular season rates. Payme wasn't sacked at all in the postseason. Favre was only sacked once.

So, I conclude that the postseason looks about the same as the regular season in general when it comes to sacks. Some QB's are sacked more in the Playoffs, but the fact that Brady's increase vs. the regular season (and especially vs. his experience of a 2.2% rate in the first ten games of the season, where his playoff rate is nearly three times as high) is an outlier really can't be disputed based on the data.

PatsFanSince74 · 09-09-2009, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eppy

As a Steeler fan, this sounds really familiar.

Yeah, on the data, Ben is in his own universe when it comes to being sacked, approximated only by the fearless Vince Young!

***patchick*** · 09-09-2009, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanSince74

Brady's Playoff stats stand out like a sore thumb. His Playoff sack rate (eight sacks) of 6.8% was 95% higher than his regular season rate of 3.5%, while the overall Playoff Average (above) was just nine percent higher than the Regular Season.

Right...but did you see this post earlier?

Quote:

Originally Posted by patchick

looking at the 2007 playoff stats, that's ALL the Giants' overwhelming rush. Until the Superbowl, Brady's playoff sack rate was his standard 1 in 20 attempts.

IOW, this entire "trend" consists of the beating we all know Brady took in the Superbowl. He was only sacked 3 times in the other playoff games put together. In fact, before the SB, you could have run an article showing that the Patriots' pass protection had really tightened up during the playoffs. To me, that says no reliable trend at all.

***Box_O_Rocks*** · 09-09-2009, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patchick

EDIT: I see Box and I were thinking alike.

PatsFanSince74 · 09-09-2009, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deus Irae

It really doesn't. We went over this on a ridiculous thread which dealt with this a little while back. This article is simply skewing the data a bit more by leaving out a big chunk of games, so that it's really only saying "When you play the better pass rushing teams, you get hit more" as if that's stunning news.

Deus, I ignored your other comment (or picture), but if you want to contest the data I've presented here, great. Please do so. I really don't have a dog in the hunt, other than what the data say. If my data are wrong, show me; this is a topic where I'd rather be wrong than right. But these general statements that something is wrong because people say it's wrong loudly enough and often enough really don't carry much water with me. If you want to cut and paste something from another thread that contains data that contest what I've argued, please do rather than just complain I'm repeating something here. Once again, data, not rants or opinions.

Here's what I think the article says, based on the data; nothing more nothing less.

Brady was sacked more often after the tenth game of the regular season in 2007 and he was sacked much more often in the Playoffs than he was in the first ten games of the season. Please see the data I present in my several responses above and then refute the data, specifically.

Brady was sacked about as often across the board in 2007 as other elite QB's, but his sack rate after game 10 and in the playoffs was considerably higher than nearly every elite QB but Ben Roethlisberger who makes a career out of being sacked and riding motorcycles without his helmet. Once again, if you have data that contest this point and can give me a source, please do.

The above was extrapolated in the article to include hits. I was not able to verify the hit data implied in the article, so I don't include it in my conclusions; however, it's not unreasonable to think that the article might be right on that point as well.

Moving beyond the facts, the above lead to a reasonable concern about Brady's "wellbeing" (for want of a better word). The fact that in the last three or four quarters he's played he's taken a season ending hit and a very worrisome hit (Haynesworth) suggest that this concern is not nuts.

If I'm wrong on any of the above on the facts and data as presented and as narrowly stated, please point out where.

***Deus Irae*** · 09-09-2009, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanSince74

Deus, I ignored your other comment (or picture), but if you want to contest the data I've presented here, great. Please do so. I really don't have a dog in the hunt, other than what the data say. If my data are wrong, show me; this is a topic where I'd rather be wrong than right. But these general statements that something is wrong because people say it's wrong loudly enough and often enough really don't carry much water with me. If you want to cut and paste something from another thread that contains data that contest what I've argued, please do rather than just complain I'm repeating something here. Once again, data, not rants or opinions.

Here's what I think the article says, based on the data; nothing more nothing less.

Brady was sacked more often after the tenth game of the regular season in 2007 and he was sacked much more often in the Playoffs than he was in the first ten games of the season. Please see the data I present in my several responses above and then refute the data, specifically.

Brady was sacked about as often across the board in 2007 as other elite QB's, but his sack rate after game 10 and in the playoffs was considerably higher than nearly every elite QB but Ben Roethlisberger who makes a career out of being sacked and riding motorcycles without his helmet. Once again, if you have data that contest this point and can give me a source, please do.

The above was extrapolated in the article to include hits. I was not able to verify the hit data implied in the article, so I don't include it in my conclusions; however, it's not unreasonable to think that the article might be right on that point as well.

Moving beyond the facts, the above lead to a reasonable concern about Brady's "wellbeing" (for want of a better word). The fact that in the last three or four quarters he's played he's taken a season ending hit and a very worrisome hit (Haynesworth) suggest that this concern is not nuts.

If I'm wrong on any of the above on the facts and data as presented and as narrowly stated, please point out where.

Patchick is already pointing it out. I was just noting that the article is just a derivative of an article that was posted a while back, which spawned a long thread where a poster was making up 'facts' from pre-2005, ignoring data, and the like. The only difference is that this one skews the argument even more by deliberately getting rid of the games that don't fit the desired template. It's not intended as any sort of swipe at you, and if you too it that way, my apologies.

PatsFanSince74 · 09-09-2009, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deus Irae

Patchick is already pointing it out. I was just noting that the article is just a derivative of an article that was posted a while back, which spawned a long thread where a poster was making up 'facts' from pre-2005, ignoring data, and the like. The only difference is that this one skews the argument even more by deliberately getting rid of the games that don't fit the desired template. It's not intended as any sort of swipe at you, and if you too it that way, my apologies.

no apology needed, we're just arguing football and facts and for my part i'm sorry i missed the other thread.

but, how is the data skewed in this case? the article argues that teams changed their Defensive strategies after the Eagles were successful in game 11; the data seem to support that it was effective over the last six games of the season and even moreso in the playoffs.