Charley Casserley On Alabama Safety Mark Barron - 'Worth A Top Ten Pick' - New England Patriots Forums

manxman2601 · 04-19-2012, 02:15 AM

NFL.com news: Draft's hottest prospect: Mark Barron's worth a top-10 pick

Sorry to do this, I know he's controversial but I'm still holding on to a desperate hope that we trade up for him.

Quote:

Rated lower than Barron:

• Earl Thomas, 2010 draft, 14th pick (Seattle): Not as good a tackler.

• LaRon Landry, 2007 draft, sixth pick (Washington): Not as stout in man-to-man coverage.

• Michael Huff, 2006 draft, seventh pick (Oakland): Not as physical.

• Donte Whitner, 2006 draft, eighth pick (Buffalo): Barron rates better in all phases of the game.

• Sean Taylor 2004 draft, fifth pick (Washington): Not as smooth in the hips, could not cover as well.

In scouting for the draft, you compare prospects to previous players taken in a round to decide what value to put on them. This is how I arrive at my thinking: Mark Barron is worth a top-10 pick.

Which means, if BB thinks the same, at 13 or 14, he represents decent value.

supafly · 04-19-2012, 02:51 AM

Not for all the tea in China, whatever the hell that really means (ask patjew).

There's no way in the world that Belichick trades up for a safety, there's too much value in the other picks that he holds.

Not to TRY and sound like a know-it-all, b/c that isn't the intention, but I would be shocked more than anything if BB traded up for Barron; not to mention disappointed.

If he'd trade up, which he won't, I would hope he'd do it for a high impact front 7 player that would be here for 6-8 yrs down the road.

manxman2601 · 04-19-2012, 03:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supafly

Not for all the tea in China, whatever the hell that really means (ask patjew).

There's no way in the world that Belichick trades up for a safety, there's too much value in the other picks that he holds.

Not to TRY and sound like a know-it-all, b/c that isn't the intention, but I would be shocked more than anything if BB traded up for Barron; not to mention disappointed.

If he'd trade up, which he won't, I would hope he'd do it for a high impact front 7 player that would be here for 6-8 yrs down the road.

What value? If you joined two prospects together from picks 27, 31 or 48, you don't get a top 10 player, certainly there are very few impact players in that range.

And I'm afraid I don't understand the obsession with front 7 players hereabouts. It certainly wasn't the front 7 that was our weakness last year, it was the secondary. Nor do i think BB obsesses about the front 7 - he's never drafted a first round pass rusher and he passed last year on DE/DT's far better than the crop available at the end of the first round this year.

I understand your objection to trading up, and I agree that it's highly unlikely that BB will do it but having seen just about every play of Barron's this year, one thing I can assure you of, in 5 years time, Barron will almost certainly be a better player than anyone we draft at 27 and or 31. The guy is an absolute stud.

Actually I'll amend that previous statement. There is one player who i think could possibly be in the same exalted territory as Barron in five years time. The trouble is, drafting him will cause as big a stink. That player is RB Doug Martin.

manxman2601 · 04-19-2012, 03:31 AM

I just want to add another point to those who don't think there's value in drafting a safety (despite the fact that BB clearly values the position highly (Rodney Harrison, a first rounder and an almost first rounder). I saw this on another message board:

Quote:

Guys who cover TEs in today's NFL are just about the most important player on the defense. I've said it before, go back just 10 years. In 2001 there were 3 TEs with over 700 yards receiving. In 2011 there were 14. In 2001 Tony Gonzales was by far the best receiving TE in the game with 900 yards receiving. Last year both Graham and Gronk passed the 1300 yard mark. For the first year in the NFL's history a TE lead the entire league in receiving TDs.

If you have a safety that can cover TEs, he's every bit as valuable as a pass rusher or cover corner IMHO. That may not have been true a decade ago, but a decade ago there weren't 5,000 yard passing offenses with TEs at the featured target.

If NFL front offices think Barron can cover TEs, not only is he worth a Top 15 pick, you could justify him going much, much higher.

jsull87 · 04-19-2012, 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by manxman2601

What value? If you joined two prospects together from picks 27, 31 or 48, you don't get a top 10 player, certainly there are very few impact players in that range.

And I'm afraid I don't understand the obsession with front 7 players hereabouts. It certainly wasn't the front 7 that was our weakness last year, it was the secondary. Nor do i think BB obsesses about the front 7 - he's never drafted a first round pass rusher and he passed last year on DE/DT's far better than the crop available at the end of the first round this year.

I understand your objection to trading up, and I agree that it's highly unlikely that BB will do it but having seen just about every play of Barron's this year, one thing I can assure you of, in 5 years time, Barron will almost certainly be a better player than anyone we draft at 27 and or 31. The guy is an absolute stud.
.

That is really one of my pet peeves come draft time. That tradeing down won't give us impact players and players in the 2nd and late 1st are just ok but won't have the impact like a top 10 pick will.

Impact players picked 25-50 in the last 2 drafts (by impact i mean 1st year starter/pro bowler 1st/2nd year)

2011

Jabal Sheard DE/OLB
Titus Young WR
John Baldwin WR
Andy Dalton QB
Steven Wisniewski LG
Brooks Reed DE/OLB

2010
Teebow QB
Devin McCourty (Pro Bowl as rookie)
Oderick DE
Saffold OT
Nate Allen FS
Koa Misi DE/OLB
Rob Gronkowski (Pro Bowl Year 2)
Lamar Houston DE

2009
Vonte Davis
Clay Mathews (Rookie Pro Bowl)
Eric Wood
Hakeem Nicks
Kenny Britt
Louis Delmas
Pat Chung
James Lauranitis
Rey Maualuga
Jarryus Byrd (Rookie Pro Bowl)
LeSean McCoy (Arguably the NFL's best back last year)

The argument is do you want 2 of the above or 1 of the top 10 guys. That is a fine argument to have and i don't really think there is a right answer but all i am saying is the whole you must trade up to get a difference maker is a bit of a false truth.

Because if your drafting department is spot on you may end up if you have picks 27, 31, 48 in 200 with Clay Mathews, Jarryus Byrd and LeSean McCoy.

Or you could use the picks to trade up to the top 10 and get Orakpo or Aldon smith type to use and example from last year. Who knows the answer but both options are valid

Wilfork#75 · 04-19-2012, 08:15 AM

I know I'm in the minority here, but I think Mark Barron is overrated. Its not that I don't think he is a very good player, but I see him more as a fringe 1st round prospect rather than a top 15 pick. In an even average Safety class I don't think he gets picked before about 22. And I don't think he is the only one. Harrison Smith is going to be overdrafted , and I could see some of the mid round guys getting pushed up as well. I think we would be better off trying to get through this year with what we have and go after someone next year in what looks to be a much stronger safety class.

WhiZa · 04-19-2012, 10:29 AM

It's easy to overvalue a player when they are the only one at their position worthy of a 1st round pick. His value will go up just based on supply and demand.

UK_Pat37 · 04-19-2012, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wilfork#75

I know I'm in the minority here, but I think Mark Barron is overrated. Its not that I don't think he is a very good player, but I see him more as a fringe 1st round prospect rather than a top 15 pick. In an even average Safety class I don't think he gets picked before about 22. And I don't think he is the only one. Harrison Smith is going to be overdrafted , and I could see some of the mid round guys getting pushed up as well. I think we would be better off trying to get through this year with what we have and go after someone next year in what looks to be a much stronger safety class.

Kenny Vaccaro is going to ***** on Mark Barron next year

Gutted he never declared. He'd have been my top rated safety.

NinjaZX6R · 04-19-2012, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supafly

Not for all the tea in China, whatever the hell that really means (ask patjew).

There's no way in the world that Belichick trades up for a safety, there's too much value in the other picks that he holds.

Not to TRY and sound like a know-it-all, b/c that isn't the intention, but I would be shocked more than anything if BB traded up for Barron; not to mention disappointed.

If he'd trade up, which he won't, I would hope he'd do it for a high impact front 7 player that would be here for 6-8 yrs down the road.

Cause India and near by nations around India produce Tea too!

conway · 04-19-2012, 12:19 PM

Just saw a mock (wes bunting, huffington post) that had Barron falling to us at 27 and Nick Perry at 31. It's maybe the only one I've seen that has Barron falling that far, but otherwise looked fairly reasonable. Anyway, I'd be thrilled if those were our first 2 picks. That would really open up the rest the draft for a BPA pick, with a leaning towards DL.