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Old 04-20-2008, 10:43 AM   #11
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Default Re: My Pats Mock Draft Take 2

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Originally Posted by MoLewisrocks View Post
WE don't draft for need. We draft for value.
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Originally Posted by MoLewisrocks View Post
I think you are confusing want with need. We didn't need any of those players - we wanted them because they represented upgrades immediately or in the forseeable future. Merriweather was a redo on the Miami SS Bill passed up due to character concerns. He knew Rodney isn't getting any younger, and he likely knew Wilson and Samuel were on their farewell tour....
OK Mo, I'm totally confused now. "Drafting for value, not need" means taking players who represent immediate upgrades at their positions? If drafting Meriweather because Samuel, Wilson and Harrison were all on their way out isn't drafting for need, what is?

If the only thing that counts as "drafting for need" is filling a gaping hole in your starting lineup day 1, then I guess the Patriots by definition can't draft for need because they don't have that kind of hole. But by your own description, they definitely do draft toward projected needs, which is very different from a BPA-type pure value philosophy.
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Old 04-20-2008, 11:40 AM   #12
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Default Re: My Pats Mock Draft Take 2

LOL!

It's easier to debate "need" vs. "want" vs. value in rd 1 next sunday morning!
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Old 04-20-2008, 11:48 AM   #13
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Default Re: My Pats Mock Draft Take 2

I think you are really on to something with the Cliff Avril second round pick. The Purdue product--from Florida though--(so Vince Wolfork will like him extra and Matt Light will be happy, too) looks to fit in well in a 3-4 defense. He'd be very good value. Keep going big with the top pick, and build from that in the second round.

http://nfldraft.rivals.com/cviewplay...eport#scouting

This kid has the football instinct and athleticism to play out in space against receivers in the flats or help muck up the run. So in our sophisticated defense he'd look to be a useful & versatile OLB, and we could bring Thomas or Vrabel to the inside.
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Old 04-20-2008, 01:13 PM   #14
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Default Re: My Pats Mock Draft Take 2

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OK Mo, I'm totally confused now. "Drafting for value, not need" means taking players who represent immediate upgrades at their positions? If drafting Meriweather because Samuel, Wilson and Harrison were all on their way out isn't drafting for need, what is?

If the only thing that counts as "drafting for need" is filling a gaping hole in your starting lineup day 1, then I guess the Patriots by definition can't draft for need because they don't have that kind of hole. But by your own description, they definitely do draft toward projected needs, which is very different from a BPA-type pure value philosophy.

Everyone has projected needs which I characterize as wants to differentiate them from geniune or glaring need - you can take the field without further additions. Bill addresses immediate needs in FA or trade. But it would make no sense whatsoever to draft based on best available talent alone if that talent can't play a position in your system (something Bill repeats frequently) and your system is working so there is no rational desire to alter it. Especially when selecting at the top of the draft where the cost is prohibitive unless you get productivity approaching 8 year pro bowl level talent, as Bill said on All Access last night. I think he was overstating slightly for dramatic effect, but you catch his drift. Not too many of those are RB's let alone in a two back system with guys like Brady, Moss, Welker and Faulk already dividing the offensive pie with Maroney and Morris. Would be a stretch for a pure pass rusher to qualify in this system, and it could be a while before a conversion project DE/LB or college OLB to pro ILB pays those kinds of dividends. And the concensus is forming that the first round corners either have sufficient holes in their game or character concerns that the value there is in the second and third round corners.


If you can trade out of the top 10 it takes a little of the pressure off to hit a grand slam. If you're drafting in the second half of the round you hope for a solo HR. If we stand pat on drafting a $40M rookie with as much guaranteed money as Seymour got in his extension, he better be a huge difference maker out of the gate. To be that he has to be an every down player and not an intriguing talent option or a project in this system.
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Old 04-20-2008, 07:18 PM   #15
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Default Re: My Pats Mock Draft Take 2

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I don't think the "need" vs. "value" argument is as clear cut as everyone thinks.

I believe, IMO, if they pick in the top 15, it's best player available.
Need is NOT separate -- it's incorporated into the value pick. And lots of considerations figure into that value. Will the player contribute immediately or take time to develop? Does that player have starter potential or will he always be a role player? Are there other options later on to fill that position, or do you fill it now because the position lacks depth?

From the consensus top 15 prospects list, there are only a handful of prospects who even fit the Pats system/profile. The Pats will select the highest rated player on their board -- not solely from consensus rankings.
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Old 04-20-2008, 07:32 PM   #16
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Default Re: My Pats Mock Draft Take 2

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I think you are really on to something with the Cliff Avril second round pick. The Purdue product--from Florida though--(so Vince Wolfork will like him extra and Matt Light will be happy, too) looks to fit in well in a 3-4 defense. He'd be very good value. Keep going big with the top pick, and build from that in the second round.

http://nfldraft.rivals.com/cviewplay...eport#scouting

This kid has the football instinct and athleticism to play out in space against receivers in the flats or help muck up the run. So in our sophisticated defense he'd look to be a useful & versatile OLB, and we could bring Thomas or Vrabel to the inside.
Matt Light will mainly be happy that HE doesn't have to block him on Sundays.
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Old 04-21-2008, 05:50 AM   #17
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We trade #7 to Carolina for #13 and #67.

#13 - Branden Albert - OG/OT - Virginia

Okay.

Trade #62 and #67 to Detroit Lions for #45 and #111

#45 - Cliff Avril - OLB/DE - Purdue

Okay, though I think I'd rather have Ray Rice.

#69 - Charles Godfrey - CB - Iowa

I'd take Chevis Jackson first, but Godfrey is okay.

#94 - Chevis Jackson - CB - LSU

Okay.

Round 4a - Jonathan Goff - ILB - Vanderbilt

Okay.

Round 4b - Kellen Davis - TE - Mich. St.

Harumph, the value is right, but I'd be surprised if he lasted this long.

Round 5a - Erik Ainge - QB - Tenn

Yuck, if you truly want a QB take a flyer on Paul Smith here - though I think the Pats are okay at QB and would do better to look at another DB or LB here.

Round 5b - Owen Schmitt - FB - WVU

I like him, but I don't see the value in taking a FB, another OL like Pedro Sosa makes more sense, or another LB prospect.

Round 6 - DRAGO - P - NDSU

He's slow getting the ball off, but Player's not in the fold yet so I agree with the concept.

Round 7 - Mike Klinkenborg - ILB - Iowa

The kid is considered a concussion risk. Take his teammate Humpal or get crazy and take Eric Foster.
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