Patriots type 3-4 OLB - Page 12 - New England Patriots Forums

MaineMan · 02-16-2011, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Defsoul

Quinn's situation is a bit simliar to the situation of any player who got hurt prior to the start of the college football season and then missed the whole year: you have to base your evaluation on sophomore/junior tape. Now I know that there are different concern. With Quinn you have character concern, because he lied to the NCAA investigators and put himself and not the team first. With an injured guy you have medical concern. You need to check him out and make sure that his injury is 100% healed and won't cause any future problems. Quinn's situation is a bit like the situation of Gronkoswki who missed all of the 2009 season because of a back injury that required surgery. Teams had to go back and evaluate his freshman and sophomore tape to judge his ability as a player.

I understand the comparison to players who miss their final season to injury and I'd throw Brandon Tate into that category as well. The main factor I'm questioning is cost (trading high picks in order to go up and get a guy with such an issue), but also, to some extent, positional expectations.

Gronk is a TE which hadn't been, when he was drafted, a critical piece of the Pats offense for awhile. The 2010 offense developed, to some extent, around what turned out to be his elite capabilities. If he hadn't turned out to be elite, we'd have overpaid slightly for a role player. Maybe. Once you calculate all the trades to get to the 2010 #42, the Pats got Gronk and Edelman for the pick-trade-value equivalent of an early 3rd rounder (#68 = 250 points). Not a huge downside for the risk.

Tate was picked up mostly as a KR/developmental WR prospect for the #5/#6 WR spot. He was selected at #83 (= 175 pick trade points), although, if you run the calculations all the way back, Tate, Gronk, Edelman and Darius Butler all derived from the 2009 trade of the #26 to GB. In any case, not a huge investment for a role player who might become more. Also, not a huge downside for the risk.

With Quinn, no matter how you slice it, you're drafting a mainstay position, not a role player. NFLDraftScout currently projects him in the #6 slot. In order to get there, it would cost the #17 PLUS roughly 650 draft trade points, or 50% more than what it cost for Gronk, Tate and Edelman combined. To me, that seems a cost-prohibitive downside for the risk.

Patriot Missile · 02-16-2011, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaineMan

I understand the comparison to players who miss their final season to injury and I'd throw Brandon Tate into that category as well. The main factor I'm questioning is cost (trading high picks in order to go up and get a guy with such an issue), but also, to some extent, positional expectations.

Gronk is a TE which hadn't been, when he was drafted, a critical piece of the Pats offense for awhile. The 2010 offense developed, to some extent, around what turned out to be his elite capabilities. If he hadn't turned out to be elite, we'd have overpaid slightly for a role player. Maybe. Once you calculate all the trades to get to the 2010 #42, the Pats got Gronk and Edelman for the pick-trade-value equivalent of an early 3rd rounder (#68 = 250 points). Not a huge downside for the risk.

Tate was picked up mostly as a KR/developmental WR prospect for the #5/#6 WR spot. He was selected at #83 (= 175 pick trade points), although, if you run the calculations all the way back, Tate, Gronk, Edelman and Darius Butler all derived from the 2009 trade of the #26 to GB. In any case, not a huge investment for a role player who might become more. Also, not a huge downside for the risk.

With Quinn, no matter how you slice it, you're drafting a mainstay position, not a role player. NFLDraftScout currently projects him in the #6 slot. In order to get there, it would cost the #17 PLUS roughly 650 draft trade points, or 50% more than what it cost for Gronk, Tate and Edelman combined. To me, that seems a cost-prohibitive downside for the risk.

I guess it all depends who you ask. I don't think anyone here is hammering giving up there whole draft for someone in the top 10. I think we made it clear pretty our preferance if someone falls past 10.

However, if BB interviews,works out and comes to the conclusion that Quinn is the guy for his system and trades up to 6. What are your feelings then? {1600 6th pick} (950 17)+ (660 28)=1610. Ofcourse this is all hypothetical because the chances of the exact scenario happenening are very low. But does it change your thinking about the player and the coach if BB gives his thumbs up and decides that he is going to work with Quinn? It certainly does mine.

I think because of the way BB has been drafting as of late, fans and media instantly assume we are trading back. Personally, I believe him when he says if there is someone they really like they will move up for that player. It may not be this year because maybe that player still isn't there that they seek. If they do move back or stay put I'm not going to be disspaointed at all. He has a pretty good track record of doing the right things lately.

MaineMan · 02-16-2011, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patriot Missile

I guess it all depends who you ask. I don't think anyone here is hammering giving up there whole draft for someone in the top 10. I think we made it clear pretty our preferance if someone falls past 10.

However, if BB interviews,works out and comes to the conclusion that Quinn is the guy for his system and trades up to 6. What are your feelings then? {1600 6th pick} (950 17)+ (660 28)=1610. Ofcourse this is all hypothetical because the chances of the exact scenario happenening are very low. But does it change your thinking about the player and the coach if BB gives his thumbs up and decides that he is going to work with Quinn? It certainly does mine.

I think because of the way BB has been drafting as of late, fans and media instantly assume we are trading back. Personally, I believe him when he says if there is someone they really like they will move up for that player. It may not be this year because maybe that player still isn't there that they seek. If they do move back or stay put I'm not going to be disspaointed at all. He has a pretty good track record of doing the right things lately.

Well, as always, BB has "final say" in this household.

If he did trade the #17 + #28 to move up for Quinn, I'd be shocked/puzzled, but I wouldn't be going on any rants about how "BB has gone off his rocker!! BB blew it big this time!!!" or any of the nonsense I'd expect to see from other Quinn non-fans.

And, it's true that I've seen no real "OMG!!! We HAVE to move up to #6 and get QUINN!!" (or Fairley or Dareus or whoever) on this board, as compared to, say, Reiss' board (among others).

All I'm really saying is that I wouldn't move up to get Quinn at #6 or even #10 or #15 and, IMHO, I don't think BB will either. Based on what I think I know of both, it doesn't sound like a good value proposition at all.

WRT Bill potentially trading down, I think there's a good chance he will - but NOT because he's done so in the past. That would seem as silly as saying that BB absolutely WILL NOT draft an OLB in the 1st round because he never has. I project him trading down simply because many of the players that I've thought for awhile were best fits and worthy of high picks have begun to slide. Meanwhile, prospects that I had much earlier identified as "sleepers"/very late round/UDFA prospects that seem to fit the Pats have begun to rise a bit. So, trading down a bit to select guys I would've picked at #17, 28 and 33 anyway and, thus, gaining more later picks to have more shots at the "sleepers" seems to make sense to me - within the context of just this draft, regardless what he's done before.

Patriot Missile · 02-16-2011, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaineMan

Well, as always, BB has "final say" in this household.

If he did trade the #17 + #28 to move up for Quinn, I'd be shocked/puzzled, but I wouldn't be going on any rants about how "BB has gone off his rocker!! BB blew it big this time!!!" or any of the nonsense I'd expect to see from other Quinn non-fans.

And, it's true that I've seen no real "OMG!!! We HAVE to move up to #6 and get QUINN!!" (or Fairley or Dareus or whoever) on this board, as compared to, say, Reiss' board (among others).

All I'm really saying is that I wouldn't move up to get Quinn at #6 or even #10 or #15 and, IMHO, I don't think BB will either. Based on what I think I know of both, it doesn't sound like a good value proposition at all.

WRT Bill potentially trading down, I think there's a good chance he will - but NOT because he's done so in the past. That would seem as silly as saying that BB absolutely WILL NOT draft an OLB in the 1st round because he never has. I project him trading down simply because many of the players that I've thought for awhile were best fits and worthy of high picks have begun to slide. Meanwhile, prospects that I had much earlier identified as "sleepers"/very late round/UDFA prospects that seem to fit the Pats have begun to rise a bit. So, trading down a bit to select guys I would've picked at #17, 28 and 33 anyway and, thus, gaining more later picks to have more shots at the "sleepers" seems to make sense to me - within the context of just this draft, regardless what he's done before.

Good points as usual. I can't wait until Feb 23rd. The combine will shake this place up quite a bit. New sleepers out of nowhere will arise. Good football players will fall. Some with no business being in the NFL will get drafted because they can run fast or run around a few cones. Best time of the year. Besides draft weekend and a Super Bowl run ofcourse.

MaineMan · 02-16-2011, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patriot Missile

Good points as usual. I can't wait until Feb 23rd. The combine will shake this place up quite a bit. New sleepers out of nowhere will arise. Good football players will fall. Some with no business being in the NFL will get drafted because they can run fast or run around a few cones. Best time of the year. Besides draft weekend and a Super Bowl run ofcourse.

For some of these guys, the official weigh-in alone may make a difference.

WesWelker83 · 02-18-2011, 10:09 PM

I really like Ryan Kerrigan as a prospect. I have been reading alot od raft sites and everyone has good things to say about him. I alos have been watching alot of film on him and he seems like he will be a very good player in the NFL. If he can drop into coverage and play in space could BB finally draft a 3-4 OLB in round 1? Here are some clips on youtube of Kerrigan. He does an excellent job setting the edge with his long arms and great base strength. I also think hes relentless going after the QB sometimes going through 2 players. His motor is also non stop. I also love the fact that even if he doesn't get the tackle or sack he makes an impact by collapsing the pocket which is such an underrated trait. Check him out:

YouTube - Ryan Kerrigan vs. Michigan (2009) 2009 vs Michigan
YouTube - Ryan Kerrigan vs. Northwestern 2010 vs NW
YouTube - DE Ryan Kerrigan 2010 vs Michigan and MSU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTRVZ...eature=related 2010 Senior Bowl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FD2pp...eature=related 2010 vs OSU

KevinFaulk-33 · 02-19-2011, 08:03 AM

What about Justin Houston?

***Box_O_Rocks*** · 02-19-2011, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KevinFaulk-33

What about Justin Houston?

He's a possibility, but there are a number of holes in his game and reportedly has maturity or underachiever issues to address in interviews and work ethic. I don't see him with a first round grade, perhaps mid-second.

***Box_O_Rocks*** · 02-19-2011, 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VJCPatriot

So Box, did Kerrigan display any better ability to get off/shed blocks? Because from what I've heard once the OL get their arms into him, Kerrigan has a hard time getting off the block. Stacking and shedding will be important skills if we're going to project Kerrigan as a 3-4 2 gap OLB. He sounds impressive enough rushing the passer but how does he set the edge against the run?

I do apologize, I missed this query in prior readings:

I refer you back to my quote from which you based your query. Please note I was discussing the potential for BB drafting a "one trick pony" who had demonstrated sufficient talent as an edge rusher to warrant consideration (a Lawrence Taylor redux as it were).

Kerrigan does indeed have any number of warts in that regard, but he reportedly has a good work ethic which would allow him to develop, so the uncertainty remains his athleticism should NE attempt to use him as one of their OLBs. We can hope to see how he performs in LB drills at the Combine. My personal assessment is he'd be a better value for NE with the #33 pick; Von Miller on the other hand I'd be more inclined to consider with the #17, as he's demonstrated some ability to play in space.

Patriot Missile · 02-19-2011, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Box_O_Rocks

He's a possibility, but there are a number of holes in his game and reportedly has maturity or underachiever issues to address in interviews and work ethic. I don't see him with a first round grade, perhaps mid-second.

I know you are high on Watt as a DE. I'm starting to get warm to him. Great film and seems to have the motor of guy that never quits and always being in the right place at the right time. Who are you liking as far as LBs? Do you see Kerrigan as being able to make the conversion to LB? Thoughts?