dryheat44

Great, great effort Box.

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sg14

Very intersting theory, but wonder about limiting the selections to certain positions??

Willie McGuinest, Mike Haynes, Rodney Harrison are not mis-match players???

Box_O_Rocks

I am not making my crazed thoughts translate well!

McGinest, Haynes, and Harrison create mismatches through individual talent.
- Willie was an OLB/DE for the Pats, in the OLB role he had run containment responsibilities and because he could attract double-teams he created a mismatch. Since OLB is the Pats primary pass rush option, my theory, as far as the draft is concerned, is OLB does not create mismatches naturally. Take Rosie Colvin, he was signed for his pass rush and had a lot to learn to improve his run D. Vrabel is an example of a natural talent who creates a mismatch as he can play the run and pass with equal skill. Folks complain about TBC in San Diego, but he and Rosie played at a disadvantage because natural mismatch players like Manu-big-F-ing-TE or Lorenzo Neal could occupy them one-on-one. Rosie had help since Ty Warren was healthy and forced San Diego to double him (they didn't have to double Sey who was playing hurt). The DE created a mismatch because his natural talent was magnified by where he plays - San Diego liked running left because a wounded Sey was being handled one-on-one by a natural mismatch LT.
- Haynes creates mismatches by taking away a teams #1 WR option in the passing game. His play in run support would indirectly affect the line of scrimmage.
- Harrison creates mismatches by being capable of filling rush lanes and battling OL (one of the reasons I want hefty, fast safeties in this draft). Safety does not naturally create a mismatch, look at the difference Bob Sanders made for Indy - his individual talent created a one blocker short problem for the Pats, while the guys replacing him created run lanes.

I identify DL, TE, and RB/FB as mismatch positions since a talented player there creates the greatest mismatch at the line of scrimmage in the run game. Antoine "Pokey" Smith was not a natural talent as NFL RBs go, but he created mismatches by forcing teams to respect the run and play the pass honestly. An adequate player in that position has a more significant impact in the run game at the line of scrimmage then more talented players at non-mismatch positions. Maroney faced a lot of eight men in the box, Faulk did not, yet both created mismatches - Maroney forced the defense to play the run, but the QB/WRs could not always take advantage of that - Faulk forced teams to play the pass, opening up the run lanes, lesser talent Heath Evans did the same covering for an injured Faulk.

If you look at my attempts to handicap players for the draft, you'll see I like a player like Meachem to create mismatches. WR is not a natural LOS/run game mismatch, but Meachem has the deep zone speed to force teams to play the pass honestly on 1st and 10, which means no eight men in the box. Since Meach is also a good blocker, he creates a mismatch by being able to take on a Bob Sanders and keep him out of the play. Here two talents neutralize each other. In San Diego McNeil handled Sey one-on-one, he created the mismatch through talent and a wounded Sey was unable to match McNeil's advantage and force double-teams the way Ty did on the right.

I've probably just confused you more! Mark it down to being raised by a c0cker spaniel.

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Box_O_Rocks

Thank you. Time to study the other defenders.

Outside Linebacker: Any of them could be available to the Pats so I cannot skip the top two. To create an individual mismatch from OLB in the Pats' run defense, they need to set a hard edge.

1. Lawrence Timmons Florida State 6-01?2 234 - Recall the complaints about TBC after San Diego? Recall that 6'2" 250 lb. four year veteran TBC was unable to force double teams working against SD's blocking boys at TE and FB. Now picture a smaller OLB in that role...does anyone not understand why BB wants converted DEs?
2. Jon Beason Miami 6-0 237 - The same too small argument applies here, but let's consider him for ILB for a moment. How does an ILB create a mismatch at the line of scrimmage? He has to force a double-team. Name an ILB in this league who consistently forces double-teams...not even Urlacher. You account for ILBs by assigning a blocker at the point of attack, but you don't need to double them.
3. Paul Posluszny Penn State 6-11?2 238 - As an OLB he doesn't require a double-team. As an ILB, he doesn't require a double-team.
4. Stewart Bradley Nebraska 6-31?2 254 - He has the size and strength to set a hard edge and to require a double-team at the point of attack. He was fending off Joe Staley in the Senior Bowl, though Brian Leonard and Le'ron McLain gave him trouble. Shorter blockers get leverage on him so it's an area he will need to improve, but he is the most likely mismatch prospect on this list.
We are in the late second round now, time for ILB.
5. Antwan Barnes Florida International 6-01?2 240
6. Quincy Black New Mexico 6-11?2 240
7. Rufus Alexander Oklahoma 6-01?2 228
8. Stephen Nicholas South Florida 6-1 232
9. Chad Nkang Elon 5-111?2 220
10. Tim Shaw Penn State 6-11?2 236

Inside Linebacker: ILB is easy, they just don't create a mismatch at the line of scrimmage and have to do it in the passing game with blitzing and coverage. None of these guys is a game breaker as a blitzer or in coverage.

1. Patrick Willis Mississippi 6-1 242
2. David Harris Michigan 6-2 243
3. Justin Durant Hampton 6-01?2 230
4. James "Buster" Davis Florida State 5-9 239
5. Brandon Siler Florida 6-11?2 241
6. Anthony Waters Clemson 6-21?2 245
7. H.B. Blades Pittsburgh 5-101?2 236
8. Desmond Bishop California 6-11?2 239
9. Michael Okwo Stanford 5-11 232
10. Marvin Mitchell Tennessee 6-3 249

Cornerback: To create a LOS/run mismatch, these guys need to be stout run supporters. To create a passing mismatch, they need to be capable of taking out a #1 WR single-handed.

1. Leon Hall Michigan 5-11 193 - Run support, check. #1 WR neutralizer...I'm not sure.
2. Darrelle Revis Pittsburgh 5-111?2 204 - Run support, check. #1 WR neutralizer...this may not play to his strength as a ballhawk, instead of shutting down a WR, you'd want him to look vulnerable and trap the QB. Like Asante last season, the mismatch isn't coverage, it's being a better receiver then the man you are covering. There is mismatch potential here.
3. Aaron Ross Texas 6-01?2 193 - Run support, check. This cat does make himself look vulnerable in coverage and is a good receiver. I haven't been high on him, but in terms of being a better receiver, he has mismatch potential.
4. Chris Houston Arkansas 5-91?2 185 - Run support, no. Is he a better receiver? No. Does his ability to shut down #1's solo create a mismatch? Yes.
5. Josh Wilson Maryland 5-9 189 - Run support, check. Is he a better receiver? I don't think so. Can he shut down a #1 solo? Hobbs does, I think this kid has the same skill set.
6. Eric Wright UNLV 5-101?2 192 - Too many off-field caution flags.
7. Jonathan Wade Tennessee 5-10 195 - Run support, six TFL as a Senior! And a FF. Though NFLDraftScout.com claims he lacks courage in the run game...He's a former WR with natural hands. Speed and quickness to cover a #1. Feel the mismatch Jonathan, be the mismatch.
8. Marcus McCauley Fresno State 6-01?2 203 - Run support, check. Natural hands. Speed & quicks. Mismatch potential.
9. Daymeion Hughes California 5-10 190 - Run support, check. Reciever, check. Coverage...um, maybe a move to FS. No mismatch.
10. A.J. Davis North Carolina State5-10 193 - Run support, check. Receiver, check, Coverage, check. The mismatch potential is here.

Safety: To create a mismatch at the line of scrimmage in the run game, Safeties need to be very aggressive in run support. Safeties create the mismatch by forcing the need for an extra blocker. I think we can skip Landry.

1. LaRon Landry LSU 6-01?2 213
2. Reggie Nelson Florida 5-11 198 - Nelson is better measured as a CB...Run support, check. Receiver, check. Coverage, check. There is mismatch potential here if you move him back to CB, he starts to lose it at S because his size limits what he can do inside the box.
3. Brandon Meriweather Miami 5-101?2 195 - Another who should be looked at from the CB perspective due to size. Run support, check. Receiver, check. Coverage, check. I know folks are going to complain about the size concerns, but we're talking first round pick here, the smaller players tend to be bigger gambles if they are small for their position.
4. Michael Griffin Texas 5-111?2 202 - Strong in run support. Good in coverage. Speed & quicks. At FS he creates mismatch potential, at SS his size comes into play.
None of the rest are 1st round prospects.
5. Tanard Jackson Syracuse 6-0 195
6. Sabby Piscatelli Oregon State 6-21?2 224
7. Eric Weddle Utah 5-11 203
8. Gerald Alexander Boise State 6-0 210
9. Eric Frampton Washington State 5-11 204
10. Aaron Rouse Virginia Tech 6-4 223

Forgive me, but I'll skip Punter and Long Snapper.

To recap: For OLB Stewart Bradley creates mismatch potential. CBs look more promising - Revis, Houston, Ross, Wade, Wilson, McCauley, Davis. At S, Nelson, Meriweather, and Griffin, but two do better at CB.

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VJCPatriot

I would disagree with you that OLB is not a mismatch position in the 3-4 set. The front 3 are the most important players in a 3-4 but the linebackers are counted on to make the plays. The beauty of the 3-4 is that you can bring the outside linebackers up and have them play with one hand on the ground, implicating a pass rush, and then either send both of them in, drop of them back in coverage, or send one and drop one back.


Pre-Snap:
---I--I---
O-X-X-X-O

After Snap - Drop Back 2:

O--I--I--O
--X-X-X--
--|--|--|
After Snap - Drop Back 1:

O--I--I---
--X-X-X-O
--|--|--|-/

After Snap - Blitz 2:
---I--I---
O-X-X-X-O
\--|--|--|-/

You can also blitz the inside linebackers but generally it is better to attack on the outside because the ILB will have to work through trash or count on the DL to create an opening for him to shoot in. Also you generally want the ILB to stay in position to stop the run.

So just my opinion but in the 3-4 the OLB can and should cause mismatches depending on how the play is drawn up. The OLB in the 3-4 is probably the most worrisome to a QB because the pre-snap read doesn't tell you much and he can easily mask or fake his intentions.

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Box_O_Rocks

I've gone through and identified mismatch players, now to arrange them.

#24: These players have to be as sure a thing as you can find. Adam Carriker, Justin Harrell, Marshawn Lynch, Brian Leonard, Joe Staley, and Ryan Kalil. You know exactly what you're getting, no doubts here. The fun comes in making the decision if more than one is left when it comes your turn.

#28: If you lock in a sure thing earlier, you can gamble a bit here on a player who has a wart. Ray McDonald, Lamarr Woodley, Paul Solaia, Greg Olsen, Stewart Bradley, Chris Houston, Jonathan Wade, Josh Wilson, Marcus McCauley, A.J. Davis, Reggie Nelson, Brandon Meriweather, Anthony Gonzalez, Jason Hill, Tony Ugoh, Leroy Harris, Samson Satele.

These five players are my problem children. Darrell Revis, Aaron Ross, Michael Griffin, Robert Meachem, Dwayne Bowe. My problem is how to classify them. WRs are boom or bust types, these two seem to be boomers, but do you play it cautious and take them with your second pick? Revis and Ross are gamblers who create mismatches by being better receivers. Is that a sure thing? Griffin is a sure thing, but the draft is FS deep and so is my roster (Wilson, Hawkins, Sanders, Gay, Spann, Andrews, Scott), decisions aaaggghhh!

Ranking is based on versatility and ceiling.
#24: Carriker, Staley, Lynch, Leonard, Kalil, Harrill, Griffin.

Ranking is based on expectations of outcome since these are transition or question mark players. For example: Woodley has the highest floor with a good ceiling as an OLB; Solaia has a very high ceiling, but the lowest floor.
#28: Woodley, Ugoh, Harris, McDonald, Meachem, Bowe, Revis, Hill, Wilson, Bradley (@OLB), Ross, Gonzalez, Wade, Satele, Davis, Nelson (@CB), Olsen, Solaia.

These are the big question marks, Chris Houston, Marcus McCauley, Brandon Meriweather. Meriweather only because I cannot adequately assess his character concerns - he'd be listed at #28 as a CB otherwise. Houston because he had two strikes, run support and stone hands. McCauley because of his timid Senior year. They are gone.

Draft Strategy: Now the fun starts! At 24, Carriker and Lynch should be gone, and Staley may too. Is Leonard an upgrade over Morris/Faulk? Is Kalil over Koppen/Hochstein, Harrell over Green/Wright, and Griffin over the full roster? Can I get similar "sure things" later, such as Gattis or Tony Hunt? Here is where a trade out may occur, attempting to get better positioned for later value further down the board, or pushing picks into 2008.

At 28 I will make a pick (unless the trade bait is too juicy). Is Woodley a value behind Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, and Woods? A better value then Ugoh who could be another Mankins at Guard or a dominating LT in time? Do I need another WR? What does that do to my roster? The truly safe picks are Woodley, Ugoh, Harris, and McDonald, they have small warts. The most upside is at WR & CB a bigger gamble, but Meachem or Bowe surviving this far are going to be the 6th WR or Revis the nickelback. The next tier behind them may still survive to a later pick if I trade out of #24.

Disclaimer: My mismatch theory came of prolonged exposure to Patsfans.com members and inadequate medicinals. Those of you have been bored enough to read my posts might note that players I never had an interest in are on this board. I'd like to think that shows some integrity in the process, but more than likely it means I've done it all wrong. Again, this is a theory and attempts to dispute it's elements are welcome.

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VJCPatriot

You didn't respond to my contention that OLB position has great potential for creating mismatches in the 3-4 and is underrated by your "theory." I also don't like Leonard as a 1st round pick but would consider him with a 2nd rounder.

I also disagree with Kalil as a 1st round pick because we already have Koppen signed longterm. Unless you see him moving to guard, and then how much of an upgrade would he be over Neal? I think 1st rounders should go to LT prospects such as for example Staley.

I don't have so much a problem with your 2nd tier players at pick #28 but I'm a fan of trading down from this pick since more than 50% of those players should be available in the early to mid 2nd round.

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Box_O_Rocks

Good point.

Recall that this is a "drafting" theory. Does the position of OLB lend itself to control of the line of scrimmage in the run game with an average college OLB? Since the college ranks do not grow 3-4 OLB themselves, the Pros have to develop them. Drafting a DE to be a 3-4 OLB is a crap shoot which eliminates it as a mismatch position for drafting theory.

The 3-4 is a defensive formation that lends itself to creating mismatches through disinformation. The offense counters with TE/RB/FB movement to keep the "balance of power." If you could draft a ready-made Mike Vrabel, then OLB would be a mismatch position for "drafting" theory. All positions are used to create mismatches on the field and I agree, 3-4 OLBs on the field of play are powerful, mobile chess pieces. You just can't get them off the shelf ready to rock & roll.

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VJCPatriot

Okay you also make a good point. It is indeed difficult to find a "ready-made" 3-4 OLB when drafting from college. Most of BB's OLB have been DE conversions. I think that's what makes freakish players like Willie McGinnest and now Adalius Thomas so important to a great 3-4 defense. I think we will see a marked improvement in defense in 2008 as BB will utilize his new "chess piece" to maximum effect.

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Box_O_Rocks

Patience grasshopper, I just finished writing that tome when I found your post.

It's not a question of liking Leonard, it's a question of his being ranked as #1 FB by everybody using him as a FB, and being a top 5 RB by the others. Either as a RB or a hybrid FB he gets extra points because he plays a mismatch position. He winds up at 24 because he is a sure thing, you know what you are getting even if you don't want it - like socks and underwear for Christmas.

Okay, disagree with Kalil as a good value, but you frame your disagreement as strategy ("...we already have Koppen signed longterm.") rather then a factual objection to Kalil as a mismatch talent. We don't disagree about Koppen, the decision for BB will be whether Kalil will provide better insurance behind Koppen, especially if the Pats go to zone blocking. I left open the option of trade out at that point because I'm not sure drafting Kalil is the best strategy, not if they can get another first in 2008 or get into the middle of the second round.

Trading back from 28 is strategy again. I consider 24 more likely for trade because there is a deeper pool of possibilities at 28. People may argue that it is better to dip into the 28 pool and take Revis at 24. That's a strategic decision, he's there because of how the mismatches were assessed, how you use that information is up to you - I just think BB has the discipline to wait four more picks and take whomever is left.

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