Go Back   New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard > PatsFans.com Forums > PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum > Patriots Draft Talk
Forgot Password? Join PatsFans.com!
Register Blogs FAQ Members List Calendar Arcade Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 02-14-2007, 12:35 PM
Third String But Playing on Special Teams
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 925
SamBamsFan is on a distinguished road
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

“last year (2006) the comp picks were awarded for the following salaries and rounds
3rd round- 5.167 mil/yr +
4th round- 4.16-5.5 mil/yr
5th round- 2.6-3.5 mil/yr
6th round- 1.97-2.9 mil/yr
7th round- 1.75-585,000/yr”

For 2007, I would guess that these numbers would go up substantially as the salary cap increased from $83M to $102M (or 22.89%). So adding this percentage this years numbers might look like this:
3rd round- 6.350 mil/yr +
4th round- 5.112-6.79 mil/yr
5th round- 3.195-4.301 mil/yr
6th round- 2.42-3.564 mil/yr
7th round- .719-2.15/yr
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links


  #12  
Old 02-14-2007, 01:08 PM
Is Sizzlin
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Plano, TX (by way of Salem,NH)
Posts: 10,712
DaBruinz has a spectacular aura aboutDaBruinz has a spectacular aura about
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by cstjohn17 View Post
Good stuff Ted, do you need a hat? I don't want your ears to get cold.

What is truly amazing is that I find this stuff interesting... In my head I had guessed 5,5,6... the more picks the better

What about Wille McGinnest? that could be another 6... I hope we use some of the picks to move around and take specific players or trade them for 08 picks. I don't see a need for 10-12 draft picks with only 7-8 having realistic chances to make the roster.
McGinest was cut and, therefore, is not eligible for compensation.

Also, Chatham isn't the highest paid loss that the Pats had after Givens, Ashworth and Vinatieri. Andre Davis, Tim Dwight, and Christian Fauria are. And two of those would off-set the signings of Mel Mitchell and Reche Caldwell.

Chatham was actually the lowest eligible FA that the Pats lost after Michael Stone, who falls below last year's low end threshold.

As for Vinatieri, did you get your info from AdamJT13? He's the one whose information I have used and based on that info, I had us pegged at 4,6,6,7 since September.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 02-14-2007, 01:09 PM
FreeTedWilliams's Avatar
VIP Member
 

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Sweet home Savannah
Posts: 3,146
FreeTedWilliams will become famous soon enough
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

That is the exact percentage the guys who I stole the formula from used in the past. They increased the comp numbers by the same percentage as the salary cap went up. So my Pats predictions may be a little high, and Jonathan's call for a thrid round pick looks even slimmer.

What you also must take into consideration is that the comp picks are awarded based on the totality of free agents signed versus the amount of free agents you lost.

On face vaule we can all assume that Bress (Chargers) & and James (Colts) would net their former teams 3rd round comp picks. However if you look at the FA signed, the case for the Chargers gets even better:

The Chargers lost:

QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)
C Bob Hallen (Cleveland)
WR Reche Caldwell (New England)
TE Justin Peelle (Miami)
DE Dequincey Scott (Minnesota)
CB Jamar Fletcher (Detroit)
LB Ben Leber (Minnesota)
With Brees, Hallen, and Caldwell all being starters and Brees a former Pro-Bowl QB

The Chargers signed:
DB Marlon McCree (Carolina)
TE Aaron Shea (Cleveland)
DB Ray Walls (Arizona)
I don't think the signing of any of these guys will effect the loss of Bress, Hallen, and Caldwell. I fully expect the Chargers to get a thrid round pick and most likely 2 fourth round picks.

As for the Seahawks:
Hutchinson was a tagged as the Seahawks "Transition" player, (remember the posion pill pissing contest between Minnesota and Seattle) so Seattle gets NOTHING for losing him (ouch that hurts).
In addition the Seahawks signed both Julian Petersen and Ashworth so they will not get any comp picks.

As for the Colts:

They lost the "edge", Thorton, and Vanderjerk, and signed Vinateri. My guess is that they will get a 3rd round pick for the edge with the loss of Thorton and Vanderjerk, cancelling out the signing of Vinateri.


New Orleans lost Bentley, however they signed Brees so they will most likely not get any comp picks.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 02-14-2007, 01:15 PM
FreeTedWilliams's Avatar
VIP Member
 

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Sweet home Savannah
Posts: 3,146
FreeTedWilliams will become famous soon enough
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBruinz View Post
McGinest was cut and, therefore, is not eligible for compensation.

Also, Chatham isn't the highest paid loss that the Pats had after Givens, Ashworth and Vinatieri. Andre Davis, Tim Dwight, and Christian Fauria are. And two of those would off-set the signings of Mel Mitchell and Reche Caldwell.

Chatham was actually the lowest eligible FA that the Pats lost after Michael Stone, who falls below last year's low end threshold.

As for Vinatieri, did you get your info from AdamJT13? He's the one whose information I have used and based on that info, I had us pegged at 4,6,6,7 since September.

I stole the formula from this guy:
http://lists.rollanet.org/pipermail/...10/042839.html

of course when you look at the bottom of the page I did get it from AdamJT13, I hadn't noticed that before.


It was his 2003 projection, I then found his 2006 version and updated the numbers.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 02-14-2007, 01:17 PM
ctpatsfan77's Avatar
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Fairfield County, CT
Posts: 6,104
ctpatsfan77 has a spectacular aura aboutctpatsfan77 has a spectacular aura about
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

No team has ever received a comp pick when it signed more FAs than it lost, regardless of how little their signings offset their losses.

On rare occasions, a team has received a 7th when the numbers are the same, but there's a significant imbalance in quality. So for NO, + Brees - JAG = no comp pick.

The way I understand it, you can rank the eligible FAs based on average annual value of the contracts, apply whatever adjustments are made, and then start cancelling out contracts (team A lost this player . . . but signed this player; team B lost that player . . . but signed this one, etc.). The top 32 (if that many) left standing on the "departure" side result in comp picks.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 02-14-2007, 01:20 PM
Is Sizzlin
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Plano, TX (by way of Salem,NH)
Posts: 10,712
DaBruinz has a spectacular aura aboutDaBruinz has a spectacular aura about
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by SamBamsFan View Post
Looking @ the major free agent signings @/ or above David Givens' AAV:

A Archuletta STL $5.3M/yr
L Bentley NO $6M/yr
D Brees SD $10M/yr
N Burleson MIN $7M/yr
A Carter SF $6M/yr
S Hutchinson SEA $7M/yr
D Howard NO $5.08M/yr
E James IND $7.5M/yr
J Peterson SF $7.71M/yr
A Randal-El PIT $5.5M/yr
D Thornton IND $4.6M/yr
B Williams MIN $6.33M/yr

Did I forget anyone?
One thing, I don't believe that teams who lose Franchise and Transition players are eligible for the UFA Compensation formula. So that would rule out Burleson.

Also, You have to take into consideration how players rule eachother out.

What players did St. Louis sign?

We know that Seattle Signed Peterson and lost Hutchinson.
We know that San Fran lost Andre Carter and Julian Peterson. Who did they sign?

New Orleans lost LeCharles Bently and Darren Howard, but signed Drew Brees. Who else did they sign?

Minnesota Signed Hutchinson and lost Brian Williams.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 02-14-2007, 01:21 PM
ctpatsfan77's Avatar
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Fairfield County, CT
Posts: 6,104
ctpatsfan77 has a spectacular aura aboutctpatsfan77 has a spectacular aura about
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeTedWilliams View Post
That is the exact percentage the guys who I stole the formula from used in the past. They increased the comp numbers by the same percentage as the salary cap went up. So my Pats predictions may be a little high, and Jonathan's call for a thrid round pick looks even slimmer.

What you also must take into consideration is that the comp picks are awarded based on the totality of free agents signed versus the amount of free agents you lost.

On face vaule we can all assume that Bress (Chargers) & and James (Colts) would net their former teams 3rd round comp picks. However if you look at the FA signed, the case for the Chargers gets even better:

The Chargers lost:

QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)
C Bob Hallen (Cleveland)
WR Reche Caldwell (New England)
TE Justin Peelle (Miami)
DE Dequincey Scott (Minnesota)
CB Jamar Fletcher (Detroit)
LB Ben Leber (Minnesota)
With Brees, Hallen, and Caldwell all being starters and Brees a former Pro-Bowl QB

The Chargers signed:
DB Marlon McCree (Carolina)
TE Aaron Shea (Cleveland)
DB Ray Walls (Arizona)
I don't think the signing of any of these guys will effect the loss of Bress, Hallen, and Caldwell. I fully expect the Chargers to get a thrid round pick and most likely 2 fourth round picks.
The fact that Caldwell started for the Pats is far less important than his salary of (just) $1.3M/year. If they get anything for Caldwell, it'll be a 7th. [How sweet would it be if the Pats ended up with the Mr. Irrelevant pick, so SD would be SOL on getting 7th rounders? ]
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 02-14-2007, 01:22 PM
FreeTedWilliams's Avatar
VIP Member
 

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Sweet home Savannah
Posts: 3,146
FreeTedWilliams will become famous soon enough
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBruinz View Post
One thing, I don't believe that teams who lose Franchise and Transition players are eligible for the UFA Compensation formula. So that would rule out Burleson.

Also, You have to take into consideration how players rule eachother out.

What players did St. Louis sign?

We know that Seattle Signed Peterson and lost Hutchinson.
We know that San Fran lost Andre Carter and Julian Peterson. Who did they sign?

New Orleans lost LeCharles Bently and Darren Howard, but signed Drew Brees. Who else did they sign?

Minnesota Signed Hutchinson and lost Brian Williams.
I have been using this page from GBN

http://www.gbnreport.com/2006freeagentscoreboard.html

It's a great draft site.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 02-14-2007, 01:22 PM
Is Sizzlin
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Plano, TX (by way of Salem,NH)
Posts: 10,712
DaBruinz has a spectacular aura aboutDaBruinz has a spectacular aura about
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by ctpatsfan77 View Post
No team has ever received a comp pick when it signed more FAs than it lost, regardless of how little their signings offset their losses.

On rare occasions, a team has received a 7th when the numbers are the same, but there's a significant imbalance in quality. So for NO, + Brees - JAG = no comp pick.

The way I understand it, you can rank the eligible FAs based on average annual value of the contracts, apply whatever adjustments are made, and then start cancelling out contracts (team A lost this player . . . but signed this player; team B lost that player . . . but signed this one, etc.). The top 32 (if that many) left standing on the "departure" side result in comp picks.
New Orleans lost more than just a JAG. They lost LeCharles Bentley and Darren Howard. That's a little more than "just a jag"
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 02-14-2007, 01:24 PM
Is Sizzlin
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Plano, TX (by way of Salem,NH)
Posts: 10,712
DaBruinz has a spectacular aura aboutDaBruinz has a spectacular aura about
Default Re: Best guess at our Comp picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeTedWilliams View Post
I have been using this page from GBN

http://www.gbnreport.com/2006freeagentscoreboard.html

It's a great draft site.
Yes, Great Blue North is good for lost of things. And thanks for the scoreboard. That will help people to see where players are offset when it comes to draft pick compensation.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

DONATE TO PATSFANS.COM
Like Our Site? Please help support our site by DONATING TO PATSFANS.COM and receive added benefits to your account!

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:05 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2009, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.2.0

© Copyright 2008 PatsFans.com - The opinions posted in this forum do not necessarily reflect the opinions of PatsFans.com or our staff.
We are not affiliated with the New England Patriots™ or the NFL™. The Photo Used In the header was taken by Ian Logue.

This site is owned and operated by I&K Internet Design Enterprises, LLC