mayoclinic

Here's an interesting read for Fox sports on the curse of the top 1st round money:

FOX Sports on MSN - NFL Draft - Draft inflation has turned top pick into a curse

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

Synovia

And McDaniels is smart, and Sanchez may be the riskiest first round pick in the last 20 years.


Seriously, look up QBs taken in the first round with less than 30 starts: They're all huge collosal busts. Sanchez has what, 11?

Synovia

Thats not really true though: QBs get much more money in the first round than any other position, and its already impossible for Ryan to make $72M. Despite terrific play, hes already missed escalators.


Chris Long, picked right before Ryan, got 6 years, 56M, 29 guaranteed. I would think that would be the absolute top of what Curry is looking at, as LB's make less than DEs.

mayoclinic

Interesting read on Sanchez from NFP:

The National Football Post | Sanchez: Do We Believe The Hype?

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

PATRIOTSFANINPA

McDaniels could make a surprise selection #1 pick out of BBs draft book and draft Freeman who might end up better than Sanchez IMO

Synovia

Theres a better reason that teams picking at the top tend to continue to suck: They have poor management. Its got nothing to do with the cap, its got to do with poor talent evaluation and development.

Synovia

Sanchez has all the halmarks of a classic QB bust:

1. Not a top 5 pick going into his final season
2. Dramatic rise in draft stock AFTER the final season
3. Limited starts
4. limited scout film because of the above

Prior to the 2008 college season, Sanchez wasn't on anyone's draft board, and that would worry the crap out of me.

Deus Irae

Exactly, because good teams give out big contracts, too. They just give them out to productive players. Bad teams keep grabbing disappointments, be it through the draft or free agency.

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Maroney TD

Wouldn't that also be the definition of a lot of players, such as Barwin? Mayo rose up the draft boards pretty fast last year although there was film on him.

Synovia

Barwin isn't a quarterback, and isn't being picked in the top 5. Quarterbacks are different.

Essentially, Two simple statistics account for 65% of all variation in quarterbacks drafted in the first round. College completion percentage, and college starts. Completion percentage essentially sets the player's "potential" and Starts sets how likely he is to hit that potential.

Essentially, with low college starts, scouts have very little tape to work with, and as such, are less likely to make correct decisions. If Sanchez goes back to school, theres a couple options: A)He plays like a stud, and the scouts were right. B) He has a down year, and the scouts realize 2008 was a fluke. C) He plays like a stud, but the scouts notice some flaw in his mechanics, structure, etc.

Players like Sanchez, with his 16 starts, the error bars are simply too wide to pick him in the first, let alone in the top 10. Honestly, I'd argue that Stafford at 33 starts is risky. Peyton Manning started something like 50 games. Cutler, the same.


From Dave Lewin:


Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.

(Add Brady Quinn)

And, in comparison, the list of players under 30 starts:
Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith.
(Add Jamarcus Russel)

Remember, Sanchez has only started 16 games.