Originally Posted by Maroney TD
Wouldn't that also be the definition of a lot of players, such as Barwin? Mayo rose up the draft boards pretty fast last year although there was film on him.
Barwin isn't a quarterback, and isn't being picked in the top 5. Quarterbacks are different.
Essentially, Two simple statistics account for 65% of all variation in quarterbacks drafted in the first round. College completion percentage, and college starts. Completion percentage essentially sets the player's "potential" and Starts sets how likely he is to hit that potential.
Essentially, with low college starts, scouts have very little tape to work with, and as such, are less likely to make correct decisions. If Sanchez goes back to school, theres a couple options: A)He plays like a stud, and the scouts were right. B) He has a down year, and the scouts realize 2008 was a fluke. C) He plays like a stud, but the scouts notice some flaw in his mechanics, structure, etc.
Players like Sanchez, with his 16 starts, the error bars are simply too wide to pick him in the first, let alone in the top 10. Honestly, I'd argue that Stafford at 33 starts is risky. Peyton Manning started something like 50 games. Cutler, the same.
From Dave Lewin:
Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.
(Add Brady Quinn)
And, in comparison, the list of players under 30 starts:
Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith.
(Add Jamarcus Russel)
Remember, Sanchez has only started 16 games.