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I hope we stay far away from Austin. Last thing we need is another short gadget guy.
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The Patriots have been overachievers the past two years. It doesn't have the talent to compensate for injuries, and it wins so much because it puts in 99% effort in the regular season and plays with terrific schemes to mask its deficiencies.
But in the playoffs a good team at 99% will not beat emotional, talented teams that play at 100%. It's what happened against the Giants in 2011 and the Ravens in 2012.
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That's what equals success in today's deep threat WR's. Whether it's Randy Moss (in his prime), Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, or Fitzgerald. Those type of guys with size and speed, are the elite guys in the league. This is why I want Terrence Williams. 6'4, and can run a 4.4 40??
Yes please.
Terrence Williams is not remotely in the talent class of the above 4.
If you are even close to a physical freak with good wr skills, you go very high. Here are top 10 wr picks in the last 5 years:
2012: Justin Blackmon
2011: AJ Green #4, Julio Jones #6
2010: None: (Demaryious Thomas #22 had doubts about his ability to run real routes and Dez Bryant # 24 had questions about his maturity)
2009 Darius Heyward-Bey #7 and Michael Crabtree at #10
2008 No wr in the first round.
Randy Moss dropped because of huge character concerns.
A. Johnson was drafted #3 overall, Fitzgerald, despite lacking elite top end speed, was drafted #3 overall, and C. Johnson was drafted #2 overall.
Physical freaks with genuine wr skills go very high in the draft. Everyone wants a freak of nature who can play wr. The reality is that there are few on the planet, and almost always need to invest very highly in one to get one without some serious questions about their ability to dominate at the next level.
Terrence Williams is not remotely in the talent class of the above 4.
If you are even close to a physical freak with good wr skills, you go very high. Here are top 10 wr picks in the last 5 years:
2012: Justin Blackmon
2011: AJ Green #4, Julio Jones #6
2010: None: (Demaryious Thomas #22 had doubts about his ability to run real routes and Dez Bryant # 24 had questions about his maturity)
2009 Darius Heyward-Bey #7 and Michael Crabtree at #10
2008 No wr in the first round.
Randy Moss dropped because of huge character concerns.
A. Johnson was drafted #3 overall, Fitzgerald, despite lacking elite top end speed, was drafted #3 overall, and C. Johnson was drafted #2 overall.
Physical freaks with genuine wr skills go very high in the draft. Everyone wants a freak of nature who can play wr. The reality is that there are few on the planet, and almost always need to invest very highly in one to get one without some serious questions about their ability to dominate at the next level.
What's everyone's take on taking a Stephen Hill type freak who spent most of his time in a running offense?
We'd need to put serious effort in developing him but if he takes it'd be amazing.
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The Patriots have been overachievers the past two years. It doesn't have the talent to compensate for injuries, and it wins so much because it puts in 99% effort in the regular season and plays with terrific schemes to mask its deficiencies.
But in the playoffs a good team at 99% will not beat emotional, talented teams that play at 100%. It's what happened against the Giants in 2011 and the Ravens in 2012.
What's everyone's take on taking a Stephen Hill type freak who spent most of his time in a running offense?
We'd need to put serious effort in developing him but if he takes it'd be amazing.
I think this gets the big
" it depends" answer:
If a guy has good hands and is aggressive and willing to use his body, he might over time, refine his route running and contribute. It helps here if he is smart/ committed to football. I am not a fan of guys who do not catch/ attack the football. WR is very hard to project.
There are the super elite high round 1 picks that have succeeded and then a range of 2nd round- in drafted picks. some of those guys, like Colston do well off the bat, and others like Vincent Jackson take years to put it together. It is important to remember that for every Brandon Marshall there are several Ty Calico's, Ramses Barden's and Mohamed Massoquoi's.
Can we agree on this at least (as far as a rookie WR will go). Whomever we bring is is NOT going to have a major impact on the offense. Most of the time a real good rookie year is around 5-600 yds. Last year no rookie had a thousand yds and only 3 than more than 800.
The point being that even if the Pats pick a WR in one of the first 3 rounds, given WHERE they will be picking in each round, the chances of them getting a guy who will be prolific enough to make an "impact" his first year is almost nil. And if that's not enough, it should be noted that in the BB era the record for most receiving yds by a rookie WR is 489 by Deion Branch back in 2002. 2nd was 360 by Julian Edelman. So really NO rookie WR has made much of an impact during the BB era
Our best chance is to find some guy with great physical skills and is very raw, who we can hopefully develop over a few years. Remember DThomas of the Broncos had a combined 755 yds over his first 2 years before exploding for over 1400 this year. BOTTOM LINE: anyone expecting a draft pick WR to make any kind of impact in 2013 is going to be disappointed.
BTW- that being said, I am all for picking a WR in the one of the first 2 rounds, but whomever that is, I'm not expecting much of an impact in 2013
Can we agree on this at least (as far as a rookie WR will go). Whomever we bring is is NOT going to have a major impact on the offense. Most of the time a real good rookie year is around 5-600 yds. Last year no rookie had a thousand yds and only 3 than more than 800.
The point being that even if the Pats pick a WR in one of the first 3 rounds, given WHERE they will be picking in each round, the chances of them getting a guy who will be prolific enough to make an "impact" his first year is almost nil. And if that's not enough, it should be noted that in the BB era the record for most receiving yds by a rookie WR is 489 by Deion Branch back in 2002. 2nd was 360 by Julian Edelman. So really NO rookie WR has made much of an impact during the BB era
Our best chance is to find some guy with great physical skills and is very raw, who we can hopefully develop over a few years. Remember DThomas of the Broncos had a combined 755 yds over his first 2 years before exploding for over 1400 this year. BOTTOM LINE: anyone expecting a draft pick WR to make any kind of impact in 2013 is going to be disappointed.
BTW- that being said, I am all for picking a WR in the one of the first 2 rounds, but whomever that is, I'm not expecting much of an impact in 2013
Sorry Ken, can't agree. My expectations are and should be high. Impact rookie wrs are seldom but they do happen. Boldin,T Glenn,Colston to name a few. Draft the right one and have him play with one of the best QBs of all time and you never know what will happen
If it doesn't happen then atleast they tried. I still don't fault BB for C Jackson. He killed the hands drills and had a good combine. It's time to try again imo. Expectations will be high but I'm mature enough to know the risks involved with that position.
Can we agree on this at least (as far as a rookie WR will go). Whomever we bring is is NOT going to have a major impact on the offense. Most of the time a real good rookie year is around 5-600 yds. Last year no rookie had a thousand yds and only 3 than more than 800.
The point being that even if the Pats pick a WR in one of the first 3 rounds, given WHERE they will be picking in each round, the chances of them getting a guy who will be prolific enough to make an "impact" his first year is almost nil. And if that's not enough, it should be noted that in the BB era the record for most receiving yds by a rookie WR is 489 by Deion Branch back in 2002. 2nd was 360 by Julian Edelman. So really NO rookie WR has made much of an impact during the BB era
Our best chance is to find some guy with great physical skills and is very raw, who we can hopefully develop over a few years. Remember DThomas of the Broncos had a combined 755 yds over his first 2 years before exploding for over 1400 this year. BOTTOM LINE: anyone expecting a draft pick WR to make any kind of impact in 2013 is going to be disappointed.
BTW- that being said, I am all for picking a WR in the one of the first 2 rounds, but whomever that is, I'm not expecting much of an impact in 2013