KenSims

Over the past 6-8 weeks, and more so in the first round of the playoffs, Vegas has been getting slaughtered by public (non-sharp) money going heavy to the favorite, and the favorites covering. This could be a reaction to that, as well as the possibility that if they opened at say 6.5, the sharps bang the Pats Sunday night through Monday and the line moves up. When the public money starts coming in on the Pats -9 on Sat/Sunday (as it almost certainly will), the Sharps can take the dog and have a 3 point middle ground where they make money both ways.

KenSims

This is from Jan 6:

On Sunday night, I was talking to John Avello, the bookmaker at the Wynn in Las Vegas. He was driving home, shortly after the Seattle Seahawks had beaten the Washington Redskins to become the fourth favorite in four NFL playoff games to cover. I was on a speaker phone and he was driving through a tunnel, so every other word was interrupted with static. But there was no mistaking the message: With favorites beating the numbers at a rate that make a bookmaker's stomach bleed, the folks running the show in Vegas are anxious for the season to end.

"There is not much time left in the year," Avello told me. "Then we can get rid of football until next year."

No one's going to cry for Las Vegas bookmakers, but this weekend was truly a microcosm of a strange year. As the Los Angeles Times reported recently, during one particularly bad November weekend full of favorites covering, the 12 MGM-owned sports books took a seven-figure hit and had to summon emergency reserves of cash to pay off its losses.

"That first game this Saturday between the Bengals and Texans didn't kill us," Jeff Sherman, a sports book manager at the Las Vegas Hotel, told me Sunday night as he screamed above the din of customers cashing Seahawks tickets. "But it's the liability you see compounding over the weekend. By Sunday, we couldn't stop writing Ravens tickets. The money for them just poured in."

It has been nastier than a Trent Williams shove to Richard Sherman's face behind the counters, and there aren't any match-ups this weekend that will make them feel any less queasy come game day. Because, between the Green Bay Packers, the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos, three of the most public teams in the NFL will be in play.

"Some teams just have it, they will always get the money," Sherman said. "And those are the teams."

All three games happen to be rematches from earlier this season, with this weekend's home teams having won all three games. And the lines that the books opened not only reflect those results but how they anticipate public perception will impact the action.

KenSims

Last one, this is for this week:

Meanwhile, no one needed the Patriots-Texans game to end before posting a number for the Pats-Ravens AFC Championship Game. I have the Don Best software and, with about 10 minutes left in the game, I saw spreads popping up like Whac-A-Moles. A nine here, a 9.5 there, a 9.5 at the Las Vegas Hotel and a 9.5 at the Wynn. What makes this number interesting is the wide variance it shows from earlier in the season, when Baltimore was a Week 3, 2.5-point home favorite over New England. In a vacuum, based on that reference point, this AFC title game number should have been New England minus-3.5. But postseason point spreads aren't made in a vacuum. They're made in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately vortex. And, lately, the money has been pouring in on the Pats.

"We saw this game as being similar to the Broncos-Ravens in the way the money came in on the favorite at an equivalent number," Sherman said. "We also have to consider the fact this is the second game. Whatever money people make earlier in the day they will want to let ride on this game. And inevitably, that will mean betting on the favorite. So if we end up taking some Baltimore money leading up to that we are fine. When you have liability adding up, if you are going to err, it doesn't hurt to err on the side of the favorite and get 'dog money. We need to be prepared."

AndyJohnson

Huh?
The line hasn't moved. I could argue it is too low in order to attract Patriots money, and there is just as much evidence, namely none.

PatsFanSince74

Looks like the Pats opened at -10 and are now at -9 or -9.5, so the Houses had to move the spread just a bit to draw enough bucks to New England. That doesn't mean a whole lot, but what I always find most interesting is how/whether the line moves in the 24--48 hours before the game when the big money guys make their plays.

In the other game, San Francisco opened at -3 and is now at -4 or -4.5, which is more than "just a bit" up. Since they're on the road, that suggests that there's not a lot of bettor confidence in Atlanta.

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AndyJohnson

That is simply wrong.
Vegas bookmakers TAKE bets, they don't MAKE them.
It is crazy to think that if they can keep 10% of the take with zero risk that they would try to predict the winner, effectively turning from house to gambler.

AndyJohnson

But the why isn't discussion-worthy, the why is because that is the line that has as close to 50% of the money on either side as possible.

If oyu are talking about why the betting public is betting that way, thats kind of a different topic. (well same topic, but the question should be asked differently)

aluminum seats

The line is higher than one would expect considering the variables of the match-up.

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aluminum seats

Disagree that the why isn't discussion worthy.

The OP and K Simms have some interesting posts about behind-the-scenes aspect of the sports books.

__________________
"So I'm going to throw myself against the wall...
'Cause I'd rather feel bad than not feel anything at all."

Deus Irae

The Patriots just blew out the Texans again, and the Ravens won a game they shouldn't have. The first game was a virtual tie, in Baltimore, despite officiating which clearly went in favor of the Ravens in terms of impact. The Patriots secondary has been completely revamped and is playing at a much higher level. The Patriots offensive line is healthy in comparison to the first encounter. Why do you people keep ignoring what's actually happened this season? Vegas doesn't.

NE is a heavily bet team
NE is a better team than they were earlier in the year
NE is relatively healthy
NE just covered against the Texans
BAL won because of a bad play in the Denver secondary rather than because of stellar play
The first game was played in Baltimore, while this one is being played in NE

That all tells Vegas to set the line higher, not lower.

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