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Old 01-01-2013, 06:00 PM   #21
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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Originally Posted by mayoclinic View Post
Talib has gushed about finding a home and buying into the team concept. He's gotten nothing but praise from his teammates for his work ethic, practice habits and commitment. We'll find out in 6 weeks or so whether he was serious, or whether this was just a short term stop to rehab his image.
I keep thinking that a "Bodden-esque" deal for Talib would be fair, adding in the difference between 2009 and 2013 of course.

I believe that Bodden was making approx. 5.5 to 6 million a year when he signed his deal in 2009. I think those numbers (obviously adjusted to the 2013 format) would be pretty fair to both sides.

For me, that's approx. 7 million or so per year, and no higher than 7.5 average.

Anything else is going to be too high of a salary to keep other key parts in place, at least in my opinion.

There will be other options besides Talib if it comes down to it, and I wonder if we aren't overlooking some other key elements while trying to determine his actual worth and giving him the majority of the praise to the better play of the secondary?

You and I have been major advocates of moving McCourty to safety for awhile now, so that certainly comes into play, as does the better play of Arrington in the slot, parlayed with Dennard on the outside. As I said we will have the luxury of a deeper safety class this year, along with the potential to sign an additional CB via FA or the draft too. As much as everyone wants to immediately write Dowling off, there's certainly a chance that he could contribute as well.

I'd love to keep Talib, there's no doubt about it, but I don't think they're going to pay him what some other teams will be willing either. Hopefully it never gets that far.
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Old 01-01-2013, 06:07 PM   #22
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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I keep thinking that a "Bodden-esque" deal for Talib would be fair, adding in the difference between 2009 and 2013 of course.

I believe that Bodden was making approx. 5.5 to 6 million a year when he signed his deal in 2009. I think those numbers (obviously adjusted to the 2013 format) would be pretty fair to both sides.

For me, that's approx. 7 million or so per year, and no higher than 7.5 average.

Anything else is going to be too high of a salary to keep other key parts in place, at least in my opinion.

There will be other options besides Talib if it comes down to it, and I wonder if we aren't overlooking some other key elements while trying to determine his actual worth and giving him the majority of the praise to the better play of the secondary?

You and I have been major advocates of moving McCourty to safety for awhile now, so that certainly comes into play, as does the better play of Arrington in the slot, parlayed with Dennard on the outside. As I said we will have the luxury of a deeper safety class this year, along with the potential to sign an additional CB via FA or the draft too. As much as everyone wants to immediately write Dowling off, there's certainly a chance that he could contribute as well.

I'd love to keep Talib, there's no doubt about it, but I don't think they're going to pay him what some other teams will be willing either. Hopefully it never gets that far.
I would suggest something like what the 49ers gave Carlos Rogers last year: 4 years, $29.3M. Maybe a bit less, with some incentives built in to reach that amount. We'll see if that's enough.
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Old 01-01-2013, 06:14 PM   #23
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

It's official - the Pats are better than last year.

Points scored per game - 32.1 in 2011, 34.8 in 2012.
Points allowed per game - 21.4 in 2011, 20.7 in 2012.
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Old 01-01-2013, 06:28 PM   #24
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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It's official - the Pats are better than last year.

Points scored per game - 32.1 in 2011, 34.8 in 2012.
Points allowed per game - 21.4 in 2011, 20.7 in 2012.
W/L 13-3 2011, 12-4 2012

Post season SB Loss 2011, tbd 2012
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Old 01-01-2013, 06:35 PM   #25
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

More importantly...

Opposing team passing statistics

Code:
1st Half games 1-8

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	193	293	65.9%	2353	17	9	16	8.0	97.0

2nd Half games 9-16

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	177	302	58.6%	2204	10	11	20	7.3	77.2
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Old 01-01-2013, 06:50 PM   #26
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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More importantly...

Opposing team passing statistics

Code:
1st Half games 1-8

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	193	293	65.9%	2353	17	9	16	8.0	97.0

2nd Half games 9-16

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	177	302	58.6%	2204	10	11	20	7.3	77.2
That is big. When you consider 4 passing TDs by SF that leaves 6 in 7 games in an area we have struggled the last couple of years.
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Old 01-01-2013, 07:07 PM   #27
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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That is big. When you consider 4 passing TDs by SF that leaves 6 in 7 games in an area we have struggled the last couple of years.
I also hadn't realized the degree of improvement in the Pats opposing QB rating. 20 points is quite significant in a stat that is a pretty solid measure of a teams defensive ability.
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Old 01-01-2013, 07:18 PM   #28
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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I also hadn't realized the degree of improvement in the Pats opposing QB rating. 20 points is quite significant in a stat that is a pretty solid measure of a teams defensive ability.
QB rating is a sucky stat though. I bet 3rd down conversions, especially number of even more than % has improved a lot too, which is even more important
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Old 01-01-2013, 07:30 PM   #29
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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I also hadn't realized the degree of improvement in the Pats opposing QB rating. 20 points is quite significant in a stat that is a pretty solid measure of a teams defensive ability.
I don't have the numbers but I'd be willing to bet that the % of passes defensed per/att is up as well. Arrington, Dennard, McCourty, Talib, Gregory, etc all are getting their hands on the ball and making plays...
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Old 01-01-2013, 07:43 PM   #30
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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That is big. When you consider 4 passing TDs by SF that leaves 6 in 7 games in an area we have struggled the last couple of years.
That is indeed, huge.
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