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Old 01-01-2013, 03:26 PM   #11
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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Originally Posted by RI Patriots fan View Post
I'm not sure if this is saying much but in just about every category, the Patriot's defense is better than last year's defense. Except in sacks where they have 3 less sacks than last year, the Patriots have gotten better in terms of both performance and ranking.

Total yards: 2011- 411.1 ypg, 31st overall.....2012- 373.2 ypg, 25th overall

Passing yards: 2011- 293.9 ypg, 31st overall....2012- 271.4 ypg, 29th overall

Running yards: 2011- 117.1 ypg, 16th overall....2012- 101.9 ypg, 9th overall

Scoring: 2011- 21.4 ppg, 18th overall.......2012- 20.7 ppg, 9th overall

Turnovers: 2011- 34, 4th place overall.......2012- 41, 2nd place overall



2012-13 Team Defense Statistics - NFL - Sporting News


NFL Stats: by Team Category


Long ways to go, but definitely trending in the right direction.
Even in sacks they are just as good if not better, as the sacks are more distributed now, not all coming from two players, one of whom was IRed before the Playoffs.

The refs took two sacks from Spikes and one from Wilfork that I can remember, and called "roughing the passer". While a couple of others were not disputable, those three certainly were questionable.
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Old 01-01-2013, 03:33 PM   #12
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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Even Pitt and SF plays crappy offenses. Gotta play 'em anyway.
You think Denver's "top 5" D may have benefitted from 4 games against KC and Oakland?
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Old 01-01-2013, 03:33 PM   #13
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

I agree with all your comments.

I would note that to keep the defense intact, we need to re-sign Talib as our highest priority.

Overlooked is that we also need to re-sign or upgrade Arrington. He has been playing reasonably well at nickel. IMHO, this is not as easy a task as one would think. IMHO, counting on Dowling as our nickel is not a good idea.

Finally, we are presuming that the losses of Chung and Cole are inconsequential.

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If the Pats re-sign Talib they will have the core defense inteact for 2013, plus Dowling back, and the possibly addition of an interior pass rusher like Pryor or Forston. 3 rookie starters (Jones, Hightower, Dennard) should get better, plus Wilson and Francis (maybe even Bequette, though that's a lot to hope for). A year of experience for 5 new starters (the 3 rookies plus Talib and Gregory) plus 2 starters who changed positions (Ninkovich and McCourty). Dowling back, FWIW - maybe nothing, maybe significant. Lots of reasons to believe that the defense should improve again in 2013, unless they lose Talib.

If the Pats see even modest gains for 2013, along the lines of what they did in the 2nd half of 2012, we should see something like:

- 18-20 PPG average (would rank in the top 5-7 this year). Even a drop of 0.7 PPG - similar to what we dropped compared to 2011 - gets us to under 20 PPG.
- Less than 240 YPG passing (would rank about 22nd or so)
- Less than 100 YPG rushing (would rank in the top 7 this year)
- Less than 340 YPG (would rank about 13th this year. That would be about a 30 YPG drop from 2012, similar to the drop in YPG from 2011 to now.

A BB defense is always going to give up some yards in favor of BBDB, and with the Pats' offense putting up points opposing defenses will often get cheap yards playing from behind, and will have to pass a lot, pushing up their passing yardage totals a bit. I don't expect YPG totals like the Steelers put up. But those numbers should be eminently achievable if we maintain continuity and build on what we currently have. Perhaps more, but I'd be happy to start with those goals.
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Old 01-01-2013, 04:03 PM   #14
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

Chung, yes. I hope we re-sign Arrington, but if not I think Cole and/or Martin could step up.

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I agree with all your comments.

I would note that to keep the defense intact, we need to re-sign Talib as our highest priority.

Overlooked is that we also need to re-sign or upgrade Arrington. He has been playing reasonably well at nickel. IMHO, this is not as easy a task as one would think. IMHO, counting on Dowling as our nickel is not a good idea.

Finally, we are presuming that the losses of Chung and Cole are inconsequential.
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Old 01-01-2013, 04:17 PM   #15
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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the last game helped overall ranking a lot, not to mention 7 sacks.
The last game is an equal 1/16th of the schedule for all 32 teams, just as each and every other game is.
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Old 01-01-2013, 04:44 PM   #16
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

As much as Talib has helped transform the secondary by being able to move all the effective parts around, I do think that some are overvaluing him at the same time.

Yes, his contributions have been very nice, but the obvious determining factor will be "at what cost?"

One would assume that Belichick took this into account prior to parting with our 4th round draft pick, but no one is sure what is going on in the heads of Talib or his agent either, especially at a position that we all know Belichick doesn't necessarily like to overpay at and feels is drastically overpriced to begin with.

I think that while Talib is the icing on the cake to the development of the secondary, I also don't think that he's quite the irreplaceable player that some are making him out to be.

We still have the draft again, where we'll likely see the additions of both safety and cornerback. It's certainly possible that we could also explore another free agent signing too, which would likely come at a more reasonable cost.

In other words, while I want Talib back just as much as anyone else, I also think that there are other options, all of them potentially more cost efficient. It will all depend on how much Talib will be looking for obviously. I would not give him more than 7.5 million on average, personally.
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Old 01-01-2013, 05:06 PM   #17
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

Anybody else notice that the stats call the Steelers the number one defense in the league? Kinda odd since they finished 8-8. It's easy to just blame the offense for that record but there is more to it: Their D was not very good at taking the ball away and some other more obscure stats that indicate the total yards stats are not exactly the final barometer.

Points allowed was good over the second half of the season. What else matters going into the tournament? Not only that but the injuries may have all come during the more irrelevant part of the year, even on the offense. It seems like it's possible that everybody will be on the field come Divisional Round weekend.

The only stink bomb in the second half was SF and because Talib and Dennard had to leave that game I would mentally adjust the points allowed average to get a more realistic idea of which defense should be on the field now.
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Old 01-01-2013, 05:14 PM   #18
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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As much as Talib has helped transform the secondary by being able to move all the effective parts around, I do think that some are overvaluing him at the same time.

Yes, his contributions have been very nice, but the obvious determining factor will be "at what cost?"

One would assume that Belichick took this into account prior to parting with our 4th round draft pick, but no one is sure what is going on in the heads of Talib or his agent either, especially at a position that we all know Belichick doesn't necessarily like to overpay at and feels is drastically overpriced to begin with.

I think that while Talib is the icing on the cake to the development of the secondary, I also don't think that he's quite the irreplaceable player that some are making him out to be.

We still have the draft again, where we'll likely see the additions of both safety and cornerback. It's certainly possible that we could also explore another free agent signing too, which would likely come at a more reasonable cost.

In other words, while I want Talib back just as much as anyone else, I also think that there are other options, all of them potentially more cost efficient. It will all depend on how much Talib will be looking for obviously. I would not give him more than 7.5 million on average, personally.
If he wants to be fairly compensated, and have a chance to make a perennial superbowl team's defense better, and have a chance pretty much every year to get a ring (or more)... he would be wise to sign here.

If all he wants is money, he is foolish.
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Old 01-01-2013, 05:19 PM   #19
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

Heck yeah. Top-ranked scoring offense and ninth-ranked scoring defense do a championship team make... I think there's no doubt: this defense, and this team, is absolutely capable of bringing home a title. I don't care who you're playing - posting a shutout, despite running out a number of reserves on D, is no joke. Now it just comes down to mental toughness, making the plays . . .
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Old 01-01-2013, 05:22 PM   #20
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Default Re: It's official - Defense is better than last year

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If he wants to be fairly compensated, and have a chance to make a perennial superbowl team's defense better, and have a chance pretty much every year to get a ring (or more)... he would be wise to sign here.

If all he wants is money, he is foolish.
Talib has gushed about finding a home and buying into the team concept. He's gotten nothing but praise from his teammates for his work ethic, practice habits and commitment. We'll find out in 6 weeks or so whether he was serious, or whether this was just a short term stop to rehab his image.
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