PP2

Where did I state that the pass/run ratio must be in balance for us to win? I only stated that it gives us the best chance to win.

You argue that the Denver game "completely demolishes" my argument, but that's only one game vs. the list of playoff games I posted.

ATippett56

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Rushing Attempts per Game on TeamRankings.com

The New England Patriots offense is ranked 2nd in rushing attempts per game.

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Seriously? What argument are you trying to make, then, given the simple fact that the team has only lost 8 games in 3 regular seasons while using the "unbalanced" approach? For crying out loud, when you take out Baltimore game this year, where the problem was clearly the defense's inability to do the job, you're now down to 7 losses in 3 years. Please share your formula for an NFL football team to get better than an 82% win rate over the course of 3 seasons and explain why 32 NFL teams aren't following that formula.

It's not just one game, considering I also point to the Ravens game coming from the losing perspective and I pointed to the Packers/Texans game as a non-Patriots example. As for the list, you haven't bothered even trying to break down one game as a counter. All you've done is toss out the final numbers.

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lamafist

Because it helps determine whether you "win because you run" or whether you "run because you're winning." The longer the game goes on, the more run/pass play-calling is determined by the score differential. If you already have a comfortable lead, you run more. If you're behind, you pass more.

If run-pass balance is actually helping cause teams to win, running should correlate with winning when play-calling is most situation-neutral, viz. the first quarter. (The 2nd quarter will be influenced by teams going pass-heavy to get a score in before the end of the half.)

The fact that running only correlates with winning in the 4th quarter is strong evidence that it is a byproduct of late-game circumstances and not that important factor in helping put the team ahead in the first place.

A few reasons.

1) Just because we were passing a lot in those games doesn't mean we were passing well.

2) We passed a lot in those games because we found ourselves in situations that required passing. When you're neither running nor passing well, you find yourself facing 3rd-and-long a lot, forcing you to pass. When you don't have a comfortable lead in the 2nd half, there's no incentive to run to take time off the clock.

3) It's two games. That's an incredibly small sample size. Also, let's remember that if not for the Tyree helmet catch play in '02 or Welker dropping a pass he catches 95% of the time, we're holding those seasons up as examples of what we should be doing, not looking for what went wrong.

AndyJohnson

Seriously do you not understand that pass/run ratios are influenced by the fact that when you have a lead you run and when you are behind you pass?
You seem to just want to totally ignore the fact that the pass/run ratio is a result of the score. You are saying more runs LEAD TO WIN but the reality is that more runs RESULT FROM being ahead in the game.
Therefore, when you cite that a team lost because of run/pass ratio you are ignoring that the run/pass ratio was a result of being behind. Conversely if you have a big lead and run 15 of the last 17 plays of the game, you have also distorted the run/pass ratio. You simply cannot use those as CAUSE when they have been proven over and over again to be EFFECT.
You seem to just pretend this argument isn't being made every time you see it. Are you hiding from it, or do you have a response?

JoeSixPat

They'll run but you'll see a lot of multiple WR sets. That's the better matchup for the Patriots against them no matter what the weather.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Stallworth out there quite a bit. How many passes might come his way is another matter.

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JoeSixPat

Especially when most of the passes are low risk short passes to guys like Welker and our TEs

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coolguy

Running the ball may not be the best game plan here. If the patriots can throw the ball on them with great success in the no huddle....THEN THE RATIO WON'T MATTER BECAUSE THE DEFENSE WILL GET WORN OUT!!!

However, the patriots can't start getting 3 & outs that only last 50 seconds...

PP2

Who cares about 8 losses over the last 3 years? My view of it is that you don't get far with an one-dimensional offense, and the number of Lombardi's we've taken home lately shows that clearly.

As Bill Parcell says, you don't get anywhere without the ability to win in more than one way.

I have demonstrated, using ALL the playoff games since 2007 just how far one dimensional offense takes us. You have zeroed on one game, and even then, that one game is a statistical abnormality because it was a blowout.

PP2

Lol, are we playing pop warner football? Run when we have a lead, throw when we're behind? I'm afraid the NFL isn't that simple.

The pass/run ratio isn't a result of the score, it's the SCRIPT that's designed before every game. There's always about 15-20 plays designed beforehand that establishes what you are going to do during the game.

I don't deny that running on consecutive downs at the end of a game distorts the pass/run ratio, but we do NOT do that every game, either because the score is too close or because of some other factors. This still doesn't prevent us from seeing a pattern.

My rationale for using the pass/run ratio as CAUSE in relation to W-L is the invariable nature of football games in that no one game is ever the same, and the idea that we consistently run when ahead and pass when behind is pure nonsense.