Brady AllTime QB Rating leader - Page 4 - New England Patriots Forums

Fixit · 11-27-2012, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by II Jangles II

You're acting as though 5 years, and 2500 attempts is some small sample.

Rodgers is at 104.4 to Brady's 97.

Do you expect Rodgers to drop significantly over the rest of his career while Brady and Manning have seen theirs rise over the last few years?

Manning's QB rating since his highest ever in 2004 (which is about the same as Rodger's career-best last year):

121.1
104.1
101.0
98.0
95.0
99.9
91.9
104.8 (11 games)

Four years of a declining QB rating, then a bump up, then his lowest since 2004. So, yeah, it's not unreasonable to expect Rodgers' numbers to tail off the further along he gets into his career.

RodThePat · 11-27-2012, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by II Jangles II

You're acting as though 5 years, and 2500 attempts is some small sample.

Rodgers is at 104.4 to Brady's 97.

Do you expect Rodgers to drop significantly over the rest of his career while Brady and Manning have seen theirs rise over the last few years?

You're also acting as if Rodgers hasn't benefited from a far cozier passing environment than Brady and Manning have, on average, throughout their careers.

Aaron Rodgers has played in 5 seasons, and has a 104.4 quarterback rating. His first year starting was in 2008, smack dab in the middle of the greatest passing era ever in the history of the league. Tom Brady, on his last 5 seasons, starting from 2007, has a 106.9 rating, and that's including a season in which he was coming back from a torn ACL. You can't just take Rodgers rating at face value and not analyze what other circumstances come into play.

PatriotsReign · 11-27-2012, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by II Jangles II

You're acting as though 5 years, and 2500 attempts is some small sample.

Rodgers is at 104.4 to Brady's 97.

Do you expect Rodgers to drop significantly over the rest of his career while Brady and Manning have seen theirs rise over the last few years?

Well if Rodgers keeps playing like he has the last few weeks, Brady has nothing to worry about.

Good game against the Giants!

hambone1818 · 11-27-2012, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RodThePat

You're also acting as if Rodgers hasn't benefited from a far cozier passing environment than Brady and Manning have, on average, throughout their careers.

Aaron Rodgers has played in 5 seasons, and has a 104.4 quarterback rating. His first year starting was in 2008, smack dab in the middle of the greatest passing era ever in the history of the league. Tom Brady, on his last 5 seasons, starting from 2007, has a 106.9 rating, and that's including a season in which he was coming back from a torn ACL. You can't just take Rodgers rating at face value and not analyze what other circumstances come into play.

This is a good point, you have to adjust for era. I also think you have to adjust for situation, which is much harder to do. Adjusting for era is just based on league average QB rating for a season--how much better or worse a QB is vs. the average passer in the league that season. As noted earlier Montana was 22% better than average while Brady's been 20% better than average.

I think the other adjustment is for environment: dome vs. open air stadium, which can be further broken down into good weather vs. 'elements'--wind, snow, rain. Manning had the benefit of playing in a cozy dome most of his career, CHFF had a great analysis 4-5 years ago highlighting how much better Brady's had been in dome situations vs. open stadiums, but Manning had the better career rating because most of his games were played in domes. I think the playing environment benefited Montana as well: how many games did he have to play in the ice and cold of New England? In the wind and snow of Buffalo? In NY or Pittsburg? Sure, he played in Green Bay and Chicago and a few other crap-weather locations, but Brady's home turf has seen some awful late-season weather and many away games in November and December have been in the elements as well.

There'll never be a definitive GOAT, based on any one stat, it's mostly just fun to argue about. But considering where Brady has played, and how much better he's performed than his peers, plus five SB appearances and three rings, he has as good a claim as anyone.

***Jangles*** · 11-27-2012, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RodThePat

You're also acting as if Rodgers hasn't benefited from a far cozier passing environment than Brady and Manning have, on average, throughout their careers.

Aaron Rodgers has played in 5 seasons, and has a 104.4 quarterback rating. His first year starting was in 2008, smack dab in the middle of the greatest passing era ever in the history of the league. Tom Brady, on his last 5 seasons, starting from 2007, has a 106.9 rating, and that's including a season in which he was coming back from a torn ACL. You can't just take Rodgers rating at face value and not analyze what other circumstances come into play.

No, I'm not.

I'm not arguing for, or against Brady or Rodgers.

My point is that this thread title isn't accurate. Tom Brady is #2 on the all time passer rating list. You guys can argue whatever angle you want for why that is, but that is the fact of the matter.

If someone can find a link that shows qualifying for that stat requires more than 2500 pass attempts and 20,000 yards I'll shut up. But crowning Brady in this matter is no different than saying he has the most career passing yards because the other guys don't count.

Before I get blasted by the homers, I'll restate what I always have to say anytime I make a comment suggesting that somebody does something, or did something better than Tom Brady. I think Tom is the GOAT, regardless of what he does with the rest of his career.

***AndyJohnson*** · 11-27-2012, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jangles

You're acting as though 5 years, and 2500 attempts is some small sample.

Rodgers is at 104.4 to Brady's 97.

Do you expect Rodgers to drop significantly over the rest of his career while Brady and Manning have seen theirs rise over the last few years?

For a careeer, it is a small sample.

Ivan · 11-27-2012, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jangles

You're acting as though 5 years, and 2500 attempts is some small sample.

Rodgers is at 104.4 to Brady's 97.

Do you expect Rodgers to drop significantly over the rest of his career while Brady and Manning have seen theirs rise over the last few years?

May not be a small sample but it leaves a huge Projection to go there. Brady has a long resume and even he has doubters, Rodgers, as good as he is, still has a long way to go to get into the discussion.

PYPER · 11-27-2012, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RodThePat

Qb rating is only useful in the context of a season. If you expand it beyond that, you can really only utilize it to compare quarterbacks who have played in the same era. The best way to employ it, is by passer rating+, which adjusts the rating the QB had to the average rating in the period he played. Brady's 97.0 rating, for example, is 20% better than the league average in the period he played in, but Joe Montana's 92.3 is 22% better than the medium rating his peers had on those seasons.

That ignores the fact that in Montana's day, he was the only quarterback playing in a west coast offense that emphasized the efficiency of the short passing game.

By the 2000's, every team's offensive system contained elements of Walsh's system. That's the reason why only Montana, Young, and QB's playing after 2000 dominate the top the the QB ratings.