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The 2011 Chung was better for whatever reasons than the healthy 2012 Chung
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I don't think that we can necessarily assume that either Welker or Connelly will miss this game to be honest with you. At this point I would be rather surprised to see that. Hernandez and Mankins are out that much we know, but we also know that Connelly's injury was not very serious and that he returned to practice this week. And Welker is as tough as they come, so I have a hard time assuming that he won't be playing either.
I would think that Hernandez's absence has more to do with playing on Thursday night, and that we can in theory--do just fine with one or the other on the field. I would have to think that Welker will play tomorrow, but that's just my opinion.
I could be pessimistic on Welker and Connolly. But at least on Welker I'd rather they play cautious with him. I know he's super tough, but he's also human.....and small....and old. I don't see the need to rush him back on the field, especially with a game next Tuesday.
On a selfish note, I am really curious to see how Josh will configure his receivers if Welker isn't in the line up. I want to get a closer look at Edelman, Fells and/or Shiancoe getting significant looks.
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We'll have to see how good of a job Belichick will do shutting down Wayne, but it may not be Wayne that will cause us the most problems, it may be more of the 'average' WRs who this team somehow seems to transform into superstars. The Colts not only have Wayne, but they have the extremely fast Donnie Avery, and the growing reliability of T.Y.Hilton to worry about too.
You can't be too far off course, after watch Marc Sanchez have a great day against this secondary, but I am of the opinion that regardless of how BB ends up deciding how to move his pieces in the secondary we will see a marked improvement in their play. Just a hunch
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I hope that you're right about the 15-20 pt win, but I am envisioning the usual shootout that occurs with TFB putting up 27-30 pts, and the pass defense surrendering many themselves. Obviously I hope that you are much closer to being correct than I am
I have no doubt that the TFB will get his 30+ before the night is over, but I don't see the Colts getting to 20. This is night, on the road, in a hostile (at least semi-hostile) environment. I ready where Luck only has 2 TDs and 7 picks on the road. Like his predecessor he's been a different QB outside a dome.
I can see your point Mayo. I see McCourty as a very good DB. A guy who can be physical and tackle and cover too. I can see the point that as one of your better DB's you want him to be in the position where he can most effect the maximum number of plays, and these days that's between the numbers so you'd want him at S. I also see the point that EVENTUALLY he's be able to use his exceptional recovery speed and football intelligence to anticipate QB's throws. And ultimately not having to turn his back to the play would become an advantage to McCourty. I get all of that. I agree that he has the skills to become a very good FS in this league.
My issue is when you make the switch.....and people's evaluation of Patrick Chung. People seem to forget that the Pats improvement to their defense coincided with the return of Patrick Chung for the last few games (IIRC the last 6 games plus the playoffs) Patrick Chung is never going to be the reincarnation of Ed Reed, Polomalu, or even Goldston. But he IS (when healthy) a very solid S, who is best served playing LS (which is more often the run side of the defense. Don't forget the Pats don't flop S's...or at least haven't in the past.) When he an Gregory are both back in the sync, I can see a situation where our Safety play vastly improves on both sides.
Now we can use Wilson in spot situations and ease him into the flow of the game, as opposed to the situation where he's be dropped from a bungee cord and had it cut. I think that Wilson can end up being an excellent S eventually He has the physical talent. But right now he isn't a starting quality NFL S and he's been forced to be just that. Why are people shocked and mad when Dennard and Wilson are forced to play so many snaps and things don't go well.
By putting McCourty back to CB, you don't wind up having to make Dennard your #2 CB and at least one of your starting CB's knows the system. I mean how much can Talib really know after 3 practices.l Tomorrow he's going to be VERY limited in what they ask him to do. I don't think you can have him out there for 60 snaps unless you tell him to just go man and forget about what anyone else is doing.
I know one thing for sure. Whatever it is, I will be anxious to see what they end up doing.
I understand your argument, I just don't agree with it:
1. I want a FS with range and vision who can both police the deep part of the field and act as the quarterback of the secondary. Chung, Wilson and Gregory don't have the skill set to be that guy. Only McCourty does. I think that role is frankly more important than having another top CB opposite Talib. We haven't had a true QB of the secondary since Rodney retired, and McCourty has all of the traits to play that role - vision, unselfishness, leadership, range, ball skills. I was hoping that Earl Thomas might slip to the Pats in the 2010 draft, and I think that McCourty could actually be better than Thomas in time at FS.
2. I hate the inconsistency of bouncing McCourty back and forth, and bouncing between personnel. Last year was worse - the safety personnel seemed to change practically every quarter. There was no chance to develop consistency and communication. Let McCourty be the glue in the secondary, let Talib lock down one side, and let Dennard develop. Pay the price - the kid's going to be good. He's decent now, and with a little help, he's solid enough. We won the Super Bowl with Randall Gay and Earthwind Moreland at CB for crissake, because we had Rodney Harrison and Eugene Wilson at safety to compensate.
3. I think Tavon Wilson could be a fine safety eventually, but not as a rangy FS who is asked to be the deep cover guy. I agree with using him in a more limited role. I don't see Steve Gregory as more than a utility man/backup/rotational guy - James Sanders with a bit more range. I don't mind Pat Chung being used in more of a downhill or hybrid S/LB role, but the idea of moving McCourty back to CB and relying on Chung/Gregory/Wison for our safety coverage puts the fear of God into me. I'd much rather see Dennard at the other CB spot with McCourty policing the field as a FS. And I don't see Chung as being with the team long term, and I really don't like the idea of bouncing McCourty back and forth between CB and FS. The secondary has suffered from lack of consistency, so be consistent.
JMHO. I know many don't agree with it, and I understand the counter argument.
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This team has depth and skill at the LB spots to play the 3-4. We're one LB and a 5 tech DT away from being able to do it. Here's a quick rundown in my opinion:
Certainties:
Hightower is definitely a SAM in the 4-3 and 3-4. He's probably a better SAM in the 3-4 once he learns not to try and shoulder-bump tackle every one.
Spikes is as much of a Mike 3-4 ILB as there possibly could ever be.
Chandler Jones is perfect as a 3-4 ROLB.
Where we could improve:
I used to think Mayo could play either 3-4 ILB spot but he looks a lot more like a Mike than a Will. He's average to below average in coverage. Bruschi is always ranting and raving about his speed and coverage but I just don't see it. He's good enough in coverage to be a 3-down player but we need a coverage LB next to him badly in passing situations.
This defense is missing two things to go from below average to elite:
1. A LB with coverage skills that can come on the field in lieu of Spikes in passing situations. We would then slide Mayo over to the Mike and this coverage LB to the Will.
2. A DT that can play the 5 technique
If we get that then it doesn't matter who's in our Secondary.
edit: Before I get flamed for leaving Ninkovich out of this, his contract expires at the end of next season. I imagine a role sharing between him and Hightower in the future. Unless the plans are to let Spikes go and move Hightower inside. Then we need to extend Ninkovich again.
I found your comments very interesting on Hightower. He's been disappointing me of late, since I had such high expectations for him.
My initial reaction when first looking at him during the draft process was that he was "sudden" His highlight reel was positively explosive. At 270lbs and freakish quickness, I thought he's be perfect to be used as a hybrid DE/LB/rusher/blitzer. A wild card or chess piece that could be moved week to week on the board looking for match up advantages, while Mayo and Spikes were your rocks. Kind of like that "special piece" we all thought AThomas was going to be in 2007 before he had to move into a ILB position when Johnson went down.
Clearly this hasn't been the case. 90% of the time he's been lined up as an OLB, but not flanking the DE, and very very rarely rushing the passer as a DE or blitzing as an OLB. And those times when he's been in the game in passing situations, he's usually been in coverage.
Hightower hasn't been playing badly for a rookie, but he certainly hasn't made very few impact plays. Plays were you could call him a "sudden" or explosive player. They don't seem to be willing to "let him loose".
I agree with everyone's thoughts on Hightower. He seems very JAGish in those "extra" abilities that are nice to have as a LB. That's kind of why I foresee him ending up inside in a 3-4. In this situation then all of a sudden Spikes becomes the expendable one, which sucks but thats the nature of free agency. If that's what happens, then resigning Ninkovich is a bigger priority than ever.
Do many people really expect the Pats to part ways with Spikes?
I consider him our best LB to be quite honest. Hard to see Bill parting with a stud LB when we have so little others.
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The Patriots have been overachievers the past two years. It doesn't have the talent to compensate for injuries, and it wins so much because it puts in 99% effort in the regular season and plays with terrific schemes to mask its deficiencies.
But in the playoffs a good team at 99% will not beat emotional, talented teams that play at 100%. It's what happened against the Giants in 2011 and the Ravens in 2012.
If, somehow, all of the secondary players become healthy at once, I have no idea who will be the "starting 4" (barring the fact that we run a lot of nickel).
Could it be McCourty and Talib at CB with Chung and Gregory at S?
Talib and Arrington at CB with McCourty and Chung at S?
Would BB play Dennard over Arrington or Gregory over Chung?
I think I'd pick the McCourty/Talib/Chung/Gregory combo because it keeps Arrington and Dennard off the field, but what does BB think? I'm clueless
Do many people really expect the Pats to part ways with Spikes?
I consider him our best LB to be quite honest. Hard to see Bill parting with a stud LB when we have so little others.
Unfortunately you can only tie up so much money in one position. If Hightower turns out to be more of a ILB than a OLB why pay for 3 starters? Granted, Hightower's salary is friendly since he was closer to the end of the 1st round.
Edit: Let's also not forget next year we will have Dane Fletcher returning from injury.
14Likes
Re: Idle thoughts....for the paranoid Pats fan..
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