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Old 11-17-2012, 06:08 PM   #21
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Default Re: Stat's that are the most meaningful.

that's one helluva first post, shorty...


how about failed love lives...you got any formulas for THAT?...I'd like to find out WTF went wrong and why I'm single with only a cat to show for my five + decades......
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Old 11-17-2012, 06:41 PM   #22
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Default Re: Stat's that are the most meaningful.

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that's one helluva first post, shorty...


how about failed love lives...you got any formulas for THAT?...I'd like to find out WTF went wrong and why I'm single with only a cat to show for my five + decades......
I do not have a formula for the game of football. I can merely attempt to improve upon the existing attempts to model its outcomes.

Similarly, I cannot solve your girl problems. But if attempts to fix that problem are as rudimentary as points per game and yards per game, there is surely room for improvement.
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Old 11-17-2012, 07:49 PM   #23
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Default Re: Stat's that are the most meaningful.

so...you're saying I'm a few yards short of a first down in the game of life?

that's cold, man...
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Old 11-17-2012, 08:39 PM   #24
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I track point efficiency and it usually has a pretty high correlation with records. The numbers are basically a measure of how much teams score above their opponents average allowed and by how much a teams holds the opponents down from their norms. This way it takes into account SOS. FWIW the Patriots have the top scoring efficiency in the league at 41.37% and a defensive score of -0.59%. At that pace the predicted wins would be 11.8 with a stdev of 1.23. Overall they rank 6th right now. The rest of the AFCE is awful ranking 23, 25, and 29 (prior to the Mia/Buff game Thursday). I used to track the home and away splits which is probably more accurate since many teams have a big variance but I got lazy and stopped doing that.

Ive been fooling around more with drive efficiency this year (actual points per starting field position vs expected points per starting field position) which I think may be a pretty strong indicator of real offensive and defensive success.
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Old 11-17-2012, 08:42 PM   #25
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Default Re: Stat's that are the most meaningful.

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that's one helluva first post, shorty...


how about failed love lives...you got any formulas for THAT?...I'd like to find out WTF went wrong and why I'm single with only a cat to show for my five + decades......
It's probably the give aways- take aways.
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Old 11-17-2012, 08:44 PM   #26
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Default Re: Stat's that are the most meaningful.

yeah...dyam straight...whatever I didn't give away, she took away....
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Old 11-17-2012, 08:54 PM   #27
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Default Re: Stat's that are the most meaningful.

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For defenses, I propose points-per-length-adjusted-drive-minus-clock-stoppage. Look at two games - one where the defense gave up 23 points and one where the defense gave up 20 points.

Length adjusted drive = length of drive/80
PPD-ADJ = points scored on drive / length adjusted drive
Drives where the first play is a kneel are excluded because the offense is not trying to score.



Meets the eye test far better than PPG.

You should've picked two games where your model actually did a good job of predicting the outcome. How are you going to convince people that you have a good model when you post an example that predicts 9 points and the actual score was 23?
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Old 11-17-2012, 08:56 PM   #28
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Default Re: Stat's that are the most meaningful.

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that's one helluva first post, shorty...


how about failed love lives...you got any formulas for THAT?...I'd like to find out WTF went wrong and why I'm single with only a cat to show for my five + decades......

Lots of penalties for Illegal Touching, eh?
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Old 11-17-2012, 09:10 PM   #29
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You should've picked two games where your model actually did a good job of predicting the outcome. How are you going to convince people that you have a good model when you post an example that predicts 9 points and the actual score was 23?
The model does not produce a score that is immediately comparable to a real game. The numbers can only be compared among other adjusted scores.

To compare the PPD-ADJ scores to real game scores, they would need to be scaled. To do this I would need to collect a ton of data, and correlate the PPD-ADJ scale to similarly "impressive" game score values. Something which I have not done.
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Old 11-17-2012, 09:21 PM   #30
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Default Re: Stat's that are the most meaningful.

there's a ton of confirmation bias going around in this thread.
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