Joker

that's one helluva first post, shorty...


how about failed love lives...you got any formulas for THAT?...I'd like to find out WTF went wrong and why I'm single with only a cat to show for my five + decades......

Get it shawtaay

I do not have a formula for the game of football. I can merely attempt to improve upon the existing attempts to model its outcomes.

Similarly, I cannot solve your girl problems. But if attempts to fix that problem are as rudimentary as points per game and yards per game, there is surely room for improvement.

Joker

so...you're saying I'm a few yards short of a first down in the game of life?

that's cold, man...

jason423

I track point efficiency and it usually has a pretty high correlation with records. The numbers are basically a measure of how much teams score above their opponents average allowed and by how much a teams holds the opponents down from their norms. This way it takes into account SOS. FWIW the Patriots have the top scoring efficiency in the league at 41.37% and a defensive score of -0.59%. At that pace the predicted wins would be 11.8 with a stdev of 1.23. Overall they rank 6th right now. The rest of the AFCE is awful ranking 23, 25, and 29 (prior to the Mia/Buff game Thursday). I used to track the home and away splits which is probably more accurate since many teams have a big variance but I got lazy and stopped doing that.

Ive been fooling around more with drive efficiency this year (actual points per starting field position vs expected points per starting field position) which I think may be a pretty strong indicator of real offensive and defensive success.

PATSNUTme

It's probably the give aways- take aways.

Joker

yeah...dyam straight...whatever I didn't give away, she took away....

JJDChE

You should've picked two games where your model actually did a good job of predicting the outcome. How are you going to convince people that you have a good model when you post an example that predicts 9 points and the actual score was 23?

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JJDChE

Lots of penalties for Illegal Touching, eh?

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Get it shawtaay

The model does not produce a score that is immediately comparable to a real game. The numbers can only be compared among other adjusted scores.

To compare the PPD-ADJ scores to real game scores, they would need to be scaled. To do this I would need to collect a ton of data, and correlate the PPD-ADJ scale to similarly "impressive" game score values. Something which I have not done.

BradyBranch39

there's a ton of confirmation bias going around in this thread.

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