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Old 10-25-2012, 10:20 AM   #71
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Default Re: And you thought our Defense was bad....

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Unfortunately for the New England Patriots defense, the numbers are trending downward:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2012 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS
If I'm reading these rankings correctly, the Patriots are ranked 7th and 8th defending against opponents 1st and 2nd receivers while 32nd against the opponents 3rd receiver and 27th and 28th defending against passes to tight ends and running backs. To me, this brings into question another of Bill Belichick's celebrated defensive strategies: taking away what the opposition does best (the "make Manningham beat us" theory).

Are the Patriots concentrating too much coverage on certain players and being too predictable in doing so? I think teams are counter game-planning against this strategy to great effect. Teams are far more diverse in their passing attacks than they were 20 years ago. What good does it do to totally shut down Larry Fitzgerald when Todd Heap and dump-offs to backs beat you?
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:25 AM   #72
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Default Re: And you thought our Defense was bad....

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So now it's the linebackers... we must be the only team with such poor linebacking then.... to think, our linebacking is so bad that it's causing our secondary to look like the worst secondary in the NFL. I'm sure on any other NFL team our secondary is just dandy. In fact, I'll bet our linebacking core would cause Revis to constantly be burned...



Nope, sorry folks, not buying it. If our secondary requires our linebackers to play perfect technique or we get burned for 30 yards a play, then why don't other secondaries get burned like ours? Face it, the secondary sucks.

Here's the reality. Our secondary sucks so bad that any minor mistake from a linebacker or lack of pressure from our line creates an overwhelming situation that our secondary can not recover from. Unlike other secondaries that can survive a couple of mistakes, ours can not. They suck plain and simple. Put anyone at safety or cornerback in that group and you still have crap.
I think the point is more that the two units don't seem to compliment each other. The LBs are all on the big and slow side of things and do much better in zone coverage. The DBs, outside of McCourty, seem to struggle making the reads necessary to play zone effectively. This is further exasperated by the fact that the LBs need DB help covering most TEs and the CBs need help covering any deep threats. The DB unit is clearly the worse of the two since they really don't seem to excel at anything, but a group of speedy backers that were better in coverage could certainly help mask some of their issues. Likely we'd all be moaning about the fact that teams were running all over us and shortening games in that case.

I think that a lot of the problems we've seen can be minimized via prep and scheming. Right now they seem to be asking player to do things they aren't very good at quite a bit. Once the coaching staff figures out what personnel they want to use and how hopefully things will settle down. As others have said it really seems like we're watching practices at points this season, which isn't surprising given the turnover and lack of padded practices. I think there's a lot of work to get this unit working well, but I also think the parts they have to work with are better than last season.
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Old 10-25-2012, 11:25 AM   #73
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Default Re: And you thought our Defense was bad....

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Some posters on this message board lack perspective or are in complete denial.
Complete denial works best for me.
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Old 10-25-2012, 11:26 AM   #74
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Default Re: And you thought our Defense was bad....

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I think the point is more that the two units don't seem to compliment each other. The LBs are all on the big and slow side of things and do much better in zone coverage. The DBs, outside of McCourty, seem to struggle making the reads necessary to play zone effectively. This is further exasperated by the fact that the LBs need DB help covering most TEs and the CBs need help covering any deep threats. The DB unit is clearly the worse of the two since they really don't seem to excel at anything, but a group of speedy backers that were better in coverage could certainly help mask some of their issues. Likely we'd all be moaning about the fact that teams were running all over us and shortening games in that case.

I think that a lot of the problems we've seen can be minimized via prep and scheming. Right now they seem to be asking player to do things they aren't very good at quite a bit. Once the coaching staff figures out what personnel they want to use and how hopefully things will settle down. As others have said it really seems like we're watching practices at points this season, which isn't surprising given the turnover and lack of padded practices. I think there's a lot of work to get this unit working well, but I also think the parts they have to work with are better than last season.
Mayo ran a 4.57 but the others are no slower than let's say the Jets linebackers.

Hightower 4.87
Spikes 5.1
Niko 4.71

How about the Ravens? Those guys are pretty good right?

Ray Lewis ran a 4.58 (100 years ago)
Suggs 4.84
McClellan 4.75

So you really only have Spikes that's a bit slower. Mayo is fast and Hightower is about Suggs speed. When Niko is in, the linebacking core is faster than the Ravens.


It's a lame excuse. Our linebackers, as a group, are no slower than most NFL teams with good defenses.

Last edited by FirstAndGoal; 10-25-2012 at 11:29 AM..
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Old 10-25-2012, 01:38 PM   #75
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Default Re: And you thought our Defense was bad....

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Mayo ran a 4.57 but the others are no slower than let's say the Jets linebackers.

Hightower 4.87
Spikes 5.1
Niko 4.71

How about the Ravens? Those guys are pretty good right?

Ray Lewis ran a 4.58 (100 years ago)
Suggs 4.84
McClellan 4.75

So you really only have Spikes that's a bit slower. Mayo is fast and Hightower is about Suggs speed. When Niko is in, the linebacking core is faster than the Ravens.


It's a lame excuse. Our linebackers, as a group, are no slower than most NFL teams with good defenses.
The Jets unit is considered slow even by their fan base. If that's your bar then every team's LBs are fast.

The Ravens are another group of slow guys that aren't good at man coverage. The same can be said of the Steelers. Both of these teams use the LBs to rush the passer and have a quality S to cover-up the coverage issues. I wasn't saying the Pats LBs are bad, I actually love the group, I was saying that their weakness further exposes some of the secondary's many weaknesses.

This doesn't even account for the fact that most of the coverage that LBs need to do doesn't require straight line speed, but more quickness (acceleration both laterally and vertically). That said I'd be interested to see the times for the 49ers.
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Old 10-25-2012, 02:10 PM   #76
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Default Re: And you thought our Defense was bad....

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The Jets unit is considered slow even by their fan base. If that's your bar then every team's LBs are fast.

The Ravens are another group of slow guys that aren't good at man coverage. The same can be said of the Steelers. Both of these teams use the LBs to rush the passer and have a quality S to cover-up the coverage issues. I wasn't saying the Pats LBs are bad, I actually love the group, I was saying that their weakness further exposes some of the secondary's many weaknesses.

This doesn't even account for the fact that most of the coverage that LBs need to do doesn't require straight line speed, but more quickness (acceleration both laterally and vertically). That said I'd be interested to see the times for the 49ers.
So why aren't these other secondaries exposed like ours. I think the key is as you said, many weaknesses. There's no need to drag down other groups into this. Other teams play with big linebackers and don't seem to have secondary issues like ours.

( not saying this is you BTW)
Just because someone breaks down a play and shows who contributed to what breakdown, doesn't mean that the DBs don't suck. You can break down film on every play and there are mistakes. The problem is our DBs are so bad, they can't recover from the slightest variance. They just suck.

Teams are licking their chops to get at these guys. Just because BB says everything is fine publicly doesn't mean privately it's true. Ty Law's said it, Troy Brown's said it, and just about anyone else who doesn't owe their living to the Patriots has said it...these guys suck.

The other thing I keep hearing (again, not from you) is that they're going to get better... what team, outside of injuries, isn't?

Sorry, I think that dragging in the linebackers as an excuse is just lame. Fix the secondary and then talk about the linebackers. It's like having a hole in your roof and complaining that the fall leaves are getting into your attic.

These guys are not going to become some great unit. They're not even going to become a good unit on that back end. It sucks but it's the reality.
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Old 10-25-2012, 02:58 PM   #77
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Default Re: And you thought our Defense was bad....

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So why aren't these other secondaries exposed like ours. I think the key is as you said, many weaknesses. There's no need to drag down other groups into this. Other teams play with big linebackers and don't seem to have secondary issues like ours.

( not saying this is you BTW)
Just because someone breaks down a play and shows who contributed to what breakdown, doesn't mean that the DBs don't suck. You can break down film on every play and there are mistakes. The problem is our DBs are so bad, they can't recover from the slightest variance. They just suck.

Teams are licking their chops to get at these guys. Just because BB says everything is fine publicly doesn't mean privately it's true. Ty Law's said it, Troy Brown's said it, and just about anyone else who doesn't owe their living to the Patriots has said it...these guys suck.

The other thing I keep hearing (again, not from you) is that they're going to get better... what team, outside of injuries, isn't?

Sorry, I think that dragging in the linebackers as an excuse is just lame. Fix the secondary and then talk about the linebackers. It's like having a hole in your roof and complaining that the fall leaves are getting into your attic.

These guys are not going to become some great unit. They're not even going to become a good unit on that back end. It sucks but it's the reality.
Because they're better. Given that the Raven's have a future HOF patrolling their backfield and the Jet's fork over ~20M to two CBs I'd hope they are. Even without Revis and Reed I'd still likely take either's secondary.

That said not everything happens in a bubble. The Jets struggle to put up points, so teams aren't forced to pass as much. Also both teams are horrible against the run right now. The Ravens have allowed more total yards and the Jets have allowed almost as many as the Pats. I personally would prefer the Pats' split of 2000 passing yds and 600 rushing over the Jets' split of 1500 passing and 1000 rushing.

In the end it comes down to how you want to design a team. I agree with you that the LBs aren't truly the problem and I think BB would too. This group seems like what he wants. I'd guess that besides minor tweaks we'll see this group together for awhile. The same can't be said for the secondary, which is clearly the best he has, but not what he wants. Outside of McC I'm guessing he sees them all as projects or dispensable.

Again that said, there are many teams that start hot and then flounder as the season goes on. I'm guessing a lot of people are expecting the Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, etc. of the league to fall off their pedestals. After 2007 I don't think any of us need reminders to this. I think those that have hope that the secondary can at least be competent are noting the fact that there's been a constant shuffling of bodies and coverage schemes back there. This gives us hope that BB will figure out what works best and build around that. If guys have more consistent roles it's not beyond belief that that unit should improve more than most. Well that and we're just blind, optimistic homers.

I'd say a wet versus dry basement is a more appropriate analogy. Both will get the job done if well designed, but a dry basement overall is a more favorable option. However when a dry basement leaks...
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:00 PM   #78
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If guys have more consistent roles it's not beyond belief that that unit should improve more than most. Well that and we're just blind, optimistic homers.
We'll have to disagree on this point. I think they are what they are. The only way to cover these guys better is to go with more nickel or dime and give up yards in the run. I have no faith in this group. Less than I had last year actually.
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Old 10-26-2012, 12:54 AM   #79
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Default Re: And you thought our Defense was bad....

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Mayo ran a 4.57 but the others are no slower than let's say the Jets linebackers.

Hightower 4.87
Spikes 5.1
Niko 4.71

How about the Ravens? Those guys are pretty good right?

Ray Lewis ran a 4.58 (100 years ago)
Suggs 4.84
McClellan 4.75

So you really only have Spikes that's a bit slower. Mayo is fast and Hightower is about Suggs speed. When Niko is in, the linebacking core is faster than the Ravens.


It's a lame excuse. Our linebackers, as a group, are no slower than most NFL teams with good defenses.
Your numbers are off on the Pats linebackers though:

Mayo 4.54 40
NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Jerod Mayo

Hightower 4.68 40
NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Dont'a Hightower

Spikes 4.99 40
Gator Pro Day, 40 times for Spikes, Haden - CBSSports.com

So although Spikes is indeed the slowest Pats linebacker, on average our other two are quite a bit faster and Mayo definitely has sideline to sideline range.

Ninkovich plays DE for us but when he does step into the LB spot his 40 isn't that impressive at 4.91. Solid player aside from the speed though.
Rob Ninkovich - DE - Purdue - 2006 NFL Combine Results

Pats don't really have a dedicated 'cover' linebacker such as a Phifer. But the combo of Mayo/Spikes is seen a lot in nickel looks.
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Old 10-26-2012, 02:07 AM   #80
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Default Re: And you thought our Defense was bad....

When you're getting whooped by TEs and RBs it screams one thing and one thing only: Our LBs suck at covering and/or knowing when the ball is coming their way.

PS: there's a lot more to being a coverage LB than speed. Usually LBs aren't playing man to man on a TE or RB. You have to have the instincts to know where the QB is going to deliver the ball and react and get there. No doubt that Mayo has the athleticism to be an elite coverage LB, he just seems to be missing the instincts to know where the QB is going to put the ball.

Believe it or not, from the film I've seen Spikes is actually a much more instinctual coverage LB than Mayo. He knows how to sit in the zones and react.

One compliment to Mayo is that he does close very quickly. He's usually only a half step or a step behind being in position to defend the pass. However, that seems to be the case habitually. I'd be curious to see what our team is giving up after the catch on throws less than 10 yards. I'd guess not very much.

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