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Obviously our base backfield is Gronkowksi, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd and Ridley. I would think that we would run this 60% of the time.
Where should Hernandez fit in beyond the 2 TE set, if at all? As i said above, I would expect the 2nd TE reps to go up to 60% and the 3rd WR down to 40%.
Q1) Would you expect the running game to be as effective with hernandez as a blocker instead of Fells?
Q2) If Hernandez is to be on the field on more than 60% of the reps, whose reps should go down? I would think that we need to run a 3 WR set at least 40% of the time, perhaps not.
Gronk 100%
Welker 100%
Lloyd 100%
3rd WR 60%
2nd TE 40% (includes straight running plays where both TE's are blockers)
i'll ignore the very few 3 TE formations and also note that the RB is often a receiver.
Last edited by mgteich; 10-13-2012 at 11:59 AM..
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Obviously our base backfield is Gronkowksi, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd and Ridley. I would think that we would run this 60% of the time.
Where should Hernandez fit in beyond the 2 TE set, if at all? As i said above, I would expect the 2nd TE reps to go up to 60% and the 3rd WR down to 40%.
Q1) Would you expect the running game to be as effective with hernandez as a blocker instead of Fells?
Q2) If Hernandez is to be on the field on more than 60% of the reps, whose reps should go down? I would think that we need to run a 3 WR set at least 40% of the time, perhaps not.
Gronk 100%
Welker 100%
Lloyd 100%
3rd WR 60%
2nd TE 40% (includes straight running plays where both TE's are blockers)
i'll ignore the very few 3 TE formations and also note that the RB is often a receiver.
Our base offense is 2TE 2WR.
You seem to want to sit Hernandez on 60% of the plays in order to play Branch??? Why would you do that? What possibly leads you to think that the coaching staff views Hernandez as worse than Branch?
100% is not a good goal. We have enough depth to not burn out these guys. That is what happened with Welker that everyone went crazy misunderstanding. Gronk and Lloyd are durable and will get close to 100%. Hernandez should be close to 100%, when fully healthy, but also has shown some fragility so keeping him in the 80% range with Fells filling in makes sense.
Welker is the 2nd most important player in this offense. That doesn't mean he should play 100% of the snaps. I think 75%-80% is about right. That keeps him fresh, that reduces the chance of injury. He makes us a better offense by being on the field, but a MUCH better offense by being fresh and on the field when most needed.
We went into the year with a plan to reduce his workload to preserve him. The injuries haven't allowed that to continue, but as players get healthy it can happen again. His production will not even be affected.
Expect
Gronk 100
Lloyd 90
Welker 75
Hernandez 80 (probably less right now until he is fully healthy)
Fells 30
Branch/Edelman 25
Is Gronk the only player that plays every snap after Brady?
Pretty amazing to think about. I'm sure one of the OLs does too.
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The Patriots have been overachievers the past two years. It doesn't have the talent to compensate for injuries, and it wins so much because it puts in 99% effort in the regular season and plays with terrific schemes to mask its deficiencies.
But in the playoffs a good team at 99% will not beat emotional, talented teams that play at 100%. It's what happened against the Giants in 2011 and the Ravens in 2012.
Hernandez is more than a TE for our offense though, we can also split him out wide or in the slot, wherever we can find a mismatch, Josh will find a way to get AH on the field. Percentage snaps is kind of misleading though. If a guy looks tired then sit him for a while so he can get a breather. Or if the play requires certan personnel then some guys are going to sit. It's not black and white the exact snap percentage. The Pats will goto the plays they believe will work and the plays will dictate the personnel package.
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Is Gronk the only player that plays every snap after Brady?
Pretty amazing to think about. I'm sure one of the OLs does too.
The only reason that works at all is that GRONK is effectively 1/2 TE, 1/2 OL.
If he were running routes on every play, there's no way he'd be out there as much as he is.
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I think Hernandez is the 2nd best player on this offense after Brady so I would fit him in wherever possible.
Yup. Fit him in anywhere and everywhere you can.
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