mayoclinic

You're entirely right, and several others have been on that bandwagon as well, including myself, for a long time. Fencer in particular has contributed some nice thoughts on the subject of the future direction of the defensive front 6/7. And there have been any number of threads in which we've discussed the concept:

Clues to next year's defensive scheme
How will the Front 6 look next season?
Sub vs. base -- who plays when?
The Evolution of the "Belichick Defense"

None of which - as you note - diminishes the scope of Grid's OP. And, in typical Grid fashion, he is pushing the limits of what others have proposed in the sense of suggesting that a 2-4-5 or 1-5-5 scheme could be the "base" rather than a package used in limited situations. But you are certainly correct, and I'm sure Grid would agree, that none of the thoughts in the OP evolved in a vacuum.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

mayoclinic

Absolutely. Not to mention the health/availability of the Pats' own personnel. The loss of Andre Carter last year certainly influenced the shift towards the use of more 3-4 fronts towards the latter part of the season and the post-season. BB is above all a pragmatist.

Amen to that. And all achieved without the benefit of caffeinated beverages. Truly staggering. Grid has been working on this for months, and the level of thought and amount of work put into this is awesome.

If 5 DBs is becoming the norm and 6 will be as common as 4, then it certainly makes sense to carry more DBs on the roster. There will be a tremendous roster crunch no matter how you slice it. 10-11 DBs leaves only 14-15 "front" roster spots, and that would generate tremendous pressure. It will be interesting to see what actually shakes out.

The Grantland article from just before the SuperBowl has eloquently described VW's role in the evolving defense and the mix of concepts and schemes into a hybrid defense.

Bill Belichick, Vince Wilfork, and the New England Patriots defense - Grantland

That article also outlined the need for better personnel to more effectively execute some of the ideas. Nothing that BB has done in the offseason runs counter to the ideas expressed in that article.

Amen to that, too. And there is some staggering defensive talent for 2013, which should help even more. It's hard not to be excited about the short- and long-term potential for the defense.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

woolster22

I tried quoting two posts up but my app is being a PITA...

Grid is right in his pushing of the two four five/One fifty five as the ideal base. In order to do so you need two typical 43/34 tweeters, two attention hogging dts, then two more lbs who can both stuff the run and engage in the passing game. That leaves five DBS to be used as seen fit. Say bequette can cover a rb/te in the flat. This makes he and Hightower stacked and roaming much more difficult to project than many options on last year's roster, simply on the basis of what would be reasonable to try, reward and risk be damned.

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mayoclinic

That's a great one sentence description of what you need on the front 6. In fact, ideally, your front 6 ought to be able to morph between a 1-5 and a 5-1 and anything in-between: 2-4, 4-2, and 3-3 formations, without changing personnel.

Looking at your description in more detail:

- Two attention hogging DTs. Absolutely. This is one reason that I (and others) wanted the Pats to take a DT in the 2012 draft to pair with Wilfork inside. Kyle Love, Jonathan Fanene, Myron Pryor, Gerrard Warren and Brandon Deaderick are adequate players, but none is an ideal attention hogging DT who can dominate when paired with Wilfork as the base in a 2-4-5. Ideally you want that DT to be able to also play DE in a 3-3-5, or even move around in a 1-5-5, so your ideal player is a guy who has a ridiculous combination of size, strength and movement skills. Fanene probably comes closest right now, but the ideal would be a guy like Haloti Ngata. As you noted earlier, that's part of why the prospect of pairing Wilfork with Albert Haynesworth was so exciting last year, and so disappointing when Haynesworth turned out to be Haynesworth. Getting someone of that ilk would be a huge difference maker. Star Lotulelei and Jesse Williams in the 2013 draft are good examples of enormous guys (6'3"-6'4" and 320-330#) with ridiculous athleticism and movement skills who could be dominant in that kind of role. Johnathan Hankins from Ohio St. John Jenkins from Georgia and Brandon Moore from Texas are also very interesting. Getting another dominant attention hogging DT to pair with Wilfork is probably my top priority for 2013.

- Two more LBs who can both stuff the run and engage in the passing game. Perfect description. In fact, ideally you want LBs who can move up onto the DL in a 5-1 and who have enough range to be the lone midfielder in that scheme, who can drop into coverage, who can play sideline-to-sideline and who can stuff the run with some pop. Right now it looks like Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Rob Ninkovich, Dane Fletcher and Bobby Carpenter are all capable of playing that role. Brandon Spikes is limited in coverage and in his range, but does the other things pretty darn well. This is a huge strength of the team right now.

- Two typical 43/34 tweeners. This is the trickiest part. If you want to morph between a 2-4-5 and a 4-2-5 then you need 2 guys who can play 4-3 RDE and LDE but who can also play standing up and drop into coverage. But if you want to be able to play a 3-3-5 then you also want them to be powerful enough to act as 2-gapping 3-4 DEs on occasion. That's a pretty tall order. So you need guys who are ideally 6'4" or taller, 270# or bigger, with 4.7 speed and the lateral agility to drop into coverage on occasion, and who are strong enough and have the stack-and-shed ability to 2-gap. Chandler Jones and Jake Bequette may fit that bill, though ideally you'd like your LDE to be even more powerful than Bequette. That's part of what I think BB was hoping Shaun Ellis could provide last year - Ellis in his prime was a 285# guy who could play 3-4 DE, 4-3 LDE and who was athletic enough to stand up in coverage (Eric Mangini described using him that way for the Jets). Unfortunately Ellis was pretty much done. JJ Watt and Cameron Jordan clearly have that kind of versatility and athleticism. A guy like Margus Hunt from SMU or Devin Taylor from South Carolina (bulked up a bit) could be a beast in that kind of role.

Imagine having 6'5 1/2" 275# (assuming he bulks up a bit) Chandler Jones at LDE and 6'8" 290# Margus Hunt at RDE, both with 4.7 speed, and Wilfork and another DT like Jesse Williams in the middle, with Hightower and Mayo behind them. Bequette could be brought in for Williams or Wilfork on clear pass rushing situations, or Hightower moved up on the DL, or one of Hightower or both DTs pulled with a 6th DB added. That would be a tremendously versatile defense, and with exceptional depth when you factor in guys like Fanene, Love, Ninkovich, Spikes, Carpenter and Fletcher.

Ithink the Pats should be pretty well positioned to play some interesting defensive schemes in 2012. But I also think they are about 2 "front" players and 1 DB away from having a truly dominant set of defensive personnel.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

RelocatedPatFan

Don't have time to organize my thoughts so I'll post them in raw form and maybe come back later:

Things BB seems o be moving towards
Atheletic mismatches. Gronk + Hernandez

Hybrids - the key to the amorphous offense/defense
Offense
TE/WR/HB - Hernandez.
Faulk and woodhead to a lesser degree. RB, Blitz pickup, WR

Defense
DT/DE - Wilfork
DE/OLB - McGinest/Vrable?
ILB/OLB - Vrable/Bruschi
SS/LB - Been lookign for one of these since Rodney retired

Specialists - People who do their job so well they're perfect for the rolee
Brady. While not athletic his intangibles are highly tangible.
Gronk. While just a TE and a Hybrid by position, he does everything well that a TE should do and just a physical mismatch period!
Welker. Slot receiver

Gimmicks
BB doesn't seem to run the gimmicks too much.

Defense in the post season has the gloves off - build towards this. Even to the point of taking a win or two away in the regular season? Though this seems to take resources away from your best player TB. so, I'm not sure how well that would go over with BB or people in general.


And I think (in all good ways possible) OTG has squarely left the grid with his presentation (quite a bit of work puttign that all together). I don't eve think he can see the grid with a high poweredset of binoculars...definitly into telescopes at this time

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hovis

I'm interested in what the "starting lineup" will be if this were the "base" defense this year.

Disclaimer: I'm well aware that the Patriots adjust based on matchups, that this is nothing new, and that the "starting lineup" and "base" defense would not be on the field at all times. The following is an attempt to predict what players will be on the field most often and in what position, assuming they're all healthy and performing as expected.

DT: Wilfork / Fanene

LB (Right to Left): Jones, Mayo, Hightower, Ninkovich

Some may disagree with this grouping, but I'll take Hightower and Ninko over Spikes based on versatility.

CB: McCourty, Arrington

Safety: Chung, Wilson, Gregory

AndyJohnson

I think you would see 3 corners, not 3 safeties.
The 2 LB spots (I consider this a 4-2 not a 2-4) are not necessarily ILBs. Nink (and Vrabel before him) plays the off the line LB role as well.
Hightower is a wild card. He seems able to play any LB position, and one of the most interesting things in camp is going to be seeing how is used.
On the outside, Cunningham, Scott and Bequette, as well as Carter if he signs, would be in the mix as well, which is one reason it is unliekly we will see Ninko there a lot.

patsfan13

In the secondary I would see McCourty, Arrington, Dowling, Gregory and Chung as the 'base' starters.


Hard to project the starters for the front 6 at this time since there are potentially 3 rookies in the mix (Hightower, Jones & Bequette).

We can say for certain that Mayo & Wilfolk will fill 2 of the six slots. If A Carter is healthy IMO he will be signed and be a starter also.

1 point that OTG brought up that I have thought about is that the reason for sub grouping pkgs is that teams have players not good enough to be starters. IMO the Pats have accumulated a lot of D players good enough to be starters depending on shceme (we have used a lot of high draft picks on the the past few years). So who starts in the fron on a given week could vary based on the opponent.

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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

Marqui

Would you have payed Red Bryant 7 mil a year to do that job?

Reckedtrek

That's some scary **** right there!

Grid you totally rock! My hat's off to you!

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