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Old 07-15-2012, 11:37 AM   #11
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

Certainly hope WW and the Pats work out a deal that is equitable for both sides.

There is something out Ebert that is really interesting...
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Old 07-15-2012, 11:38 AM   #12
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

Quote:
Originally Posted by javajunky View Post
Welker's market value wont be as big as he believes next year. I say there is a good chance he stays a Patriot once he tests it.
Have we not learned in sports, even the NFL that there is always a team out there willing to pay big money, to the extent of even over paying for a player.

Quote:
patfanken...I'd love to see what Edelman can do getting regular snaps in the slot position
C'mon, seriously? That's like putting Ocho in to do what Moss did. The only person I can see to come in that might have a chance is Amendola but to get on the same page as Brady and Wes seem to always be on will take a couple years.... and that's too long.
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Old 07-15-2012, 11:47 AM   #13
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

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Originally Posted by zipster9 View Post
Sounds like this is probably Welker's last year as a Patriot. Welker wants about 9-9.5m/yr for 3yrs. Guaranteed.

Frankly, Welker is not worth that much. He is NO CalvinJohnson or AndreJohnson. Welker is a slot receiver.

Funny, lots of Patriots leave expecting exactly same production with new teams, dont pan out. Only a very few ex-Patriots end up doing ok later on
(aka: Seymour).

Welker is more than just a "slot receiver" and you do him and yourself a great injustice by saying it. Welker lines up all over the place. He lined up as the X,Y, and Z receiver. Yes, he does his best work over the middle, but he also draws double teams on a regular basis and STILL puts up 110+ receptions a year.

People thinking that Welker is only a product of the Patriots are ignoring what Welker did despite the 3 different QBs he had in Miami prior to his joining the Pats. If you think that Welker will magically become only a 50 reception guy because he won't have Brady, then you are kidding yourself. Welker will be a solid #2 receiver on most teams.
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Old 07-15-2012, 11:50 AM   #14
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

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Originally Posted by zipster9 View Post
Sounds like this is probably Welker's last year as a Patriot. Welker wants about 9-9.5m/yr for 3yrs. Guaranteed.

Frankly, Welker is not worth that much. He is NO CalvinJohnson or AndreJohnson. Welker is a slot receiver.

Funny, lots of Patriots leave expecting exactly same production with new teams, dont pan out. Only a very few ex-Patriots end up doing ok later on
(aka: Seymour).
Who told you what he wants? If he were Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson he'd be asking for $12-15Myr. So I think he grasps the distinction even though fans don't appear to. There is a difference in wanting to be paid for being the best at what you do and being paid for being the best in the league. Welker is the best slot WR in the game.

Financially many ex-Patriots end up doing OK. While nothing may ever top or even equal playing here on an emotional level or even a production level, it's often easier to top being paid less than market for staying here. And while players generally prefer to play for a winning team and compete for championships, at the end of the day they almost all want to approach maximizing earnings in what is a limited window career.

Welker is the kind of guy who probably would remain signable for this team after the season. Shame on them for opting to take advantage of that. Now they have to wimultaneously hope he doesn't get injured and continues to produce while secretly hoping they can somehow still spin that into less than more financially going forward. And they have to hope nobody else stumbles out of the gate or gets injured because if that happens Brady will be targeting the life out of his BFF.

Welker is in a tough spot for an over achiever. Has to be able to compartmentalize the future contract issue and continue to play with focused abandon as he has for 5 years here. I wouldn't want to be him or the team down the stretch if he's again putting up tremendous numbers because what he's increasingly risking will likely begin coming into sharper focus. And there won't be a thing either side can do about it. If I'm the team the last thing I want allow is for a situation to even subconsciously develop where Brady begins to worry about being on the delivering end of a play that ends or seriously threatens the remainder of his BFF's career. And I wouldn't want to be the teams contract negotiator going forward if something like that happens to that guy, the one Brady calls the heart and soul of this offense, because it will give a lot of his teamates contractual pause going forward.
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Old 07-15-2012, 12:01 PM   #15
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

You can't pay him like a #1 receiver if he's not! I like WW, but I don't think he's the type of player that will change a team completely. He is good at what he does, but he can be replaced in the offense. We saw him get shut down when teams flooded the middle of the field. Without a legit deep threat he struggles to get open sometimes. Hopefully something fair will get worked out eventually though !
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Old 07-15-2012, 12:13 PM   #16
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

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You can't pay him like a #1 receiver if he's not! I like WW, but I don't think he's the type of player that will change a team completely. He is good at what he does, but he can be replaced in the offense. We saw him get shut down when teams flooded the middle of the field. Without a legit deep threat he struggles to get open sometimes. Hopefully something fair will get worked out eventually though !
Two things about this:

(1) Welker changes the way defenses play this offense. For example, Brady's 50th TD came because the Giants were desperate to prevent Welker from picking up the first down, so they double teamed him while leaving Moss in single coverage.

(2) Last season, after six weeks, Welker had more completions for first downs than any other player had receptions, period.
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Old 07-15-2012, 12:14 PM   #17
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsGirl2011 View Post
You can't pay him like a #1 receiver if he's not!
He's been the team's WR1 since at least 2010. One could argue which year he overtook Moss for the role, but there's no question that he's been the WR1 since that final Moss season.[/QUOTE]


Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsGirl2011 View Post
I like WW, but I don't think he's the type of player that will change a team completely.
That would make more sense if Welker hadn't already changed the offense pretty much completely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsGirl2011 View Post
He is good at what he does, but he can be replaced in the offense.
Welker's done what no receiver in the history of the NFL has ever done. I'm sure the Patriots can just go out and find his replacement at the local Walmart.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsGirl2011 View Post
We saw him get shut down when teams flooded the middle of the field. Without a legit deep threat he struggles to get open sometimes. Hopefully something fair will get worked out eventually though !
Please list all the WRs in history who could not be shut down. I think you'll find that the number of such players is zero. Jerry Rice once had an 1800 yard season, yet he was held to 2 for 21 and 5 for 32 in games that year.
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Old 07-15-2012, 12:23 PM   #18
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsGirl2011 View Post
You can't pay him like a #1 receiver if he's not! I like WW, but I don't think he's the type of player that will change a team completely. He is good at what he does, but he can be replaced in the offense. We saw him get shut down when teams flooded the middle of the field. Without a legit deep threat he struggles to get open sometimes. Hopefully something fair will get worked out eventually though !
Calvin Johnson gets "shutdown" also. In fact, he was shut down 4 games last year.

Welker was shut down at times, but the Pats still won. That's what a TEAM is all about. Having others step up when some people get shut down.

People have this erroneous idea of what a #1 receiver is and what Welker is. Welker is more than just a slot receiver. He's lined up at the X,Y, and Z receiver positions. And he's caught passes out of each one.

Welker is this team's #1 receiver. Thinking otherwise is a fallacy.
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Old 07-15-2012, 12:44 PM   #19
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

I wish we could magically go back and erase the Ocho signing, give the $6 mil they wasted on him to Welker, and get him signed for the next 3 seasons.

There has to be a compromise in this situation. Welker played for a friendly deal for 5 years. He could of held out but he didn't. Kraft should take this into account. If Welkers producing 100+ receptions every year for $3.5 mil, and you pay Ocho $6 mil for not learning the playbook, then maybe management can give a bit more then they want on a new deal. Same goes for Welker. Lower the demands a bit and get this thing done.

3 yrs - $26 mil - $20 mil guaranteed = fair deal
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Old 07-15-2012, 12:51 PM   #20
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Default re: It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

as productive as he's been, I simply don't see giving him a contract as one of the better #1 WR's in the league. I think the pats would rather see him as a 85-90 catch guy moving forward. at 30, I don't believe his body can withstand 2-3 more seasons like the one he just had. with both lloyd and gaffney here, I don't think welker will see much more than that anyway.

based on that, the value for the pats is to have him play out this year under the tag. they have plenty of cap space, so they don't need to bring his number down.

just as with other players, the pats will go in another direction rather than break the bank for a non-franchise guy. and welker can afford to be patient. if he has another good year, he will get the deal he would have gotten this year, plus he will have gotten the 2012 tag $$....he jet needs to hope he doesn't get hurt
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