patsfaninpittsburgh

Actually, it doesn't.

Based on common metrics, 3 years is the benchmark for time to develop an NFL WR.

Likewise, BB has often stated WR is the toughest position to project for transition to the next level.

The obvious solution.......trade for WR's and sign free agents.

About the only thing that will matter is BB will probably not waste anymore time drafting WR's.

Spergon Wynn

At this point, I'd let Welker play out the tag and extend Hernandez, who has more upside at this point in their respective careers.

Hernandez can run those same underneath routes and make quick cuts and slants.

Not saying that I want Welker to walk, in fact I want him to retire as Patriot, but locking up Hernandez is better for the future of this team.

Jack Handy

Why are people getting down on welker like he was an underperforming asset that the team is being nice to carry? Part of the reason the TEs are such a problem is that Wes took so much of the coverage his way or would catch 14 balls for 200 yards.

The team would not have the same production without him. In order of importance I put

Gronk
Welker
Hern

Spergon Wynn

I'm not "down" on Welker but it's a matter of investment. I don't see a major drop off this year but I'm not sure that the numbers that he and his agent are looking for are feasible.

Lets face it: he's on the wrong side of his career. I still think he will be a solid contributor but I'd rather invest in younger players who have shown they can play like Hernandez.

I'm also not sure I buy the idea that the TEs wouldn't put up great numbers without him. Weren't there some saying that Welker himself would face a dropoff after Moss left? Well that didn't happen.

I feel like I have to say it again just to be safe: I want Wes Welker to retire as a Patriot but for the right price and not at the expense of younger players who have shown they can produce on a high level.

spacecrime

Do you want him for three more years because he will be worth $8 -$10 mil a year for three years or as a reward for how well he did.

I say BS to the idea that a player should be paid in the future for what he used to be, and also BS to the idea the Welker will be worth $8 - $10 mil three years from now.

Ideally, release a player when he turns the corner and starts downhill, but since that is impossible to do all the time, better to release a year to soon rather than a year too late.

And I would DEFINITELY rather extend Hernandez than Welker.

__________________
“When we look at the board, based on everything we want in a football player at that particular time, we evaluate them and take the player that fits best for our football team. That’s what we always do, and I think the last nine years we’ve put a pretty competitive team out there on the field every year. I think that’s how you do it – you get good football players. Sometimes they are not always at the No. 1 position, but I don’t think you pass up good football players to get the guys who aren’t as good just because they’re at a position that somebody feels you need.”
BB on his draft philosophy, April 2010

spacecrime

Hard to tell what you mean, but if you are saying that signing WRs as FAs and trading for WRs instead of drafting them saves resources, I wholeheartedly agree.

Draft a WR in the first round, and it may work out or it may not, but you are stuck paying first round money if it doesn't. Signing a FA WR in his third or fourth year or fifth year you pretty much KNOW what you are getting, and if it doesn't work out, you can cut your losses. Better to sign Stallworth, cut him and sign again when needed than to draft 15th overall and spend a lot of money and years while he leards to be a good WR. Lots cheaper and you save a first round pick you used for Wilfork.

A second round pick for Welker and a fourth round pick for Moss saved two more first round picks for DEs and DBs.

__________________
“When we look at the board, based on everything we want in a football player at that particular time, we evaluate them and take the player that fits best for our football team. That’s what we always do, and I think the last nine years we’ve put a pretty competitive team out there on the field every year. I think that’s how you do it – you get good football players. Sometimes they are not always at the No. 1 position, but I don’t think you pass up good football players to get the guys who aren’t as good just because they’re at a position that somebody feels you need.”
BB on his draft philosophy, April 2010

mayoclinic

I think the Pats should offer Welker the identical $55m deal thru 2019 that Gronk is getting:



The. Welker can't be upset that the team will "commit" long term to Gronk but not to him.

__________________

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

AndyJohnson

Welker isn't saying Welker is upset. People who own computers and post here are saying he is. Worlds of difference.

AndyJohnson

zero in round 1.
That is a 10 year period. I would venture to say you can't find many teams that have used fewer draft picks (as well as based upon the round) as the Patriots in that timeframe.
Rare is a comparative word.

MoLewisrocks

What are Welker and his agent looking for? I don't know and I guarantee you don't. What if he's been looking for 4 x $7M+ and $18M guaranteed? I do know what they offered him (2 years $16M guaranteed) when added to his salary remaining last season when he was just 30 would have resulted in a 3 year $19M deal, or just over $6M per. That's why it didn't get done. Then he went out and put up his best season to date...on the heels of 4 pretty damned impressive seasons despite suffering a torn ACL at one point.

It's not an either or choice. This team can afford Gronk and Welker and Ahern at least for the next 3-4 years. They have one 30 year old WR signed for 3 years and another 31 year old WR signed for 2 years for about $4.5M and two more over 30's who will play for as long as they want them to for about a million per (but both may be done after this season) and they have a 7th round rookie who has never set foot on an NFL field signed for bupkiss for 4 years - all under contract for cheap $$$.

Gronk's deal hits the cap for the next 2 years at just over $2M per, then it hits at $5-6M+ for the next 4 years. Hernandez won't top that whether extended or not. Gronk's next 4 years guarantees are based on 2 rookie salary only years and two years as if tagged. Why not do the same for Welker only frontload the cap. 4 years $18.5M guaranteed (tag salary plus $9M guaranteed option bonus vs. $21M total if tagged but there is no guarantee he would be or will be healthy and get another $9M guaranteed on a deal somewhere else in 2013 - so time value of money discount applied) and 3 years of unguaranteed salary at $3-4M (that are essentially meaningless as he may or may not see those or could be asked to restructure and reduce salary if he's not still producing at a 90+ reception or thousand yard pace). Cap hits $11.25, $6.25M, $5.25M or $2M less if forced to restructure to vet min., $5.25M or again $2M less if restructured to vet min. You could even fluff the total value of the deal with $3-4M more in meaningless backend salaries. Dead cap if instead cut in 4th year (2015) $2.25M. The dead cap on Chad's sunk cost this year is $3M...so obviously NBD.

They can afford all 3 over the next 3-4 seasons. The key is Hernandez being reasonable and getting a Gronk light deal later this season or waiting to be tagged, and tagged again, and frankly either option will work. If on the other hand he's not reasonable it won't matter what Welker or Gronk did, he probably won't be here.

And please remember, those TE's have only produced on a truly high level once to date. Wes has done it consistently for 5 years in succession.