mgteich

1) I think that Welker has a 3-year contract widow for the pats. Kraft said that the team wanted to sign Welker to a long-term contract (3 years counts I presume).

2) Perhaps Kraft will simply wait Welker out. It seems likely that Welker's numbers will be down in 2012 with the additions to the receiving corps and a likely de-emphasizing of Welker. This is NOT wrong in any way. Brady needs to rely on more targets as well as use his running backs more (as runniners and receivers).

3) Welker will get paid almost $10M this year. The open question is how he will be worth in 2013 and 2014 to the patriots and to other teams. I could see Welker getting $12M next year from us if his value and stats continue. 2014 is another story entirely. A contract through 2014, with a low amount of new money in 2014 seem best for one and all.

MoLewisrocks

Not that we need another Welker and his value thread but Jason took a reasoned approach at assessing his market and value and came to the same conclusion I did roughly off the top of my head. Although I'd do the 4 year still for cap flexibility and tweek the guaranteed money by about another million and a half to two million as a result and still be happy because the same thing that Jason thinks makes Welker his own worst enemy makes him a candidate to finish the deal affordably on a discount.

3-4 years, $8M AAV $16M+ guaranteed depending on length of deal and some makeable incentives to sweeten the simple fact that he may not see average at the back end.

Estimating a Contract for WR Wes Welker

PS the TE's numbers may be down if the additions pan out as upgrades, too. That won't impact Welker's value so much as a slot WR, just a WR - and it doesn't appear based on his franchise tag comments that he's wedded to making elite outside WR money ($10M+ to 12M+ range) so much as making and having the opportunity remaining here affords him to continue to earn the opportunity to make elite slot WR money for more than 2 years.