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I think that it is important to note that we in base defense on 30% of the time. Sometimes, we plan too much focus on the base defense and not enough on the nickel.
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For me, I am still stuck with more tradition divisions between DL and LB, although I have always recognized that guys like Ninkovich may be linemen in sub-packages.
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DEFENSIVE LINEMEN (6-7)
I believe that JONES, WILFORK and LOVE are locks to make the 53. Love is inexpensive and a solid value, even as a backup.
Personally, I believe that FANENE and BEQUETTE are extremely likely to make the team. If we call Bequette a developmental rookie, then perhaps he is the 7th DL.
That leaves the rest competing for TWO roster spots. I think it likely that the victors will come from DEADERICK, PRYOR, BRACE, WARREN, and ANDRE CARTER. DEADERICK and PRYOR are my choices for now, with WARREN as the injury alternative.
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LINEBACKERS AND OLB/DE SUB-PACKAGE (6-7)
The #7, #8, and #9 linebackers play very little, except on special teams.
I have MAYO, SPIKES and FLETCHER inside. FLETCHER is an inexpensive reserve ILB.
NINKOVICH and HIGHTOWER should be in on sub packages. NiNKOVICH is also likely to play OLB in the base 3-4. I have penciled in SCOTT as the OLB opposite NINKOVICH in the base 3-4. CUNNINGHAM or CARPENTER could get the #7 (backup) LB spot.
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SPECIAL TEAMERS (1-3)
WHITE is still my favorite here. We also have Tarpinian and Koutouvides. Special teamers from other positions also compete for these roster spots, although I think we have always kept one STer who is an emergency linebacker.
If you are considering Jones and Bequette DL (as well Carter), then you are using a 43 lineup, and we will need more than 6-7 DL. If you want to use a 34 move those 2 to OLB and then 6-7 is fine. Either way, you are 2 short on DL.
We need at least 6 300lb+ DL whether its 34 or 43, because then RDE would be the 260-270 lb guys.
LDE Deaderick, Brace
NT/DT Wilfork, Warren
RDE/DT Fanene, Love
Fit Pryor in there wherever you want,and unless someone surprises and takes one of their job all or all but 1 of the 7 are making the team.
The 43 RDE/34 OB/Sub DE group is Jones, Hightower(who can also play elsewehere), Ninkovich, Cunningham, Scott, Bequette.
This is where there will be heavy competition.
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Deus, Hightower can be sent on the occasional blitz or situational outside rush but he is an inside linebacker and NOT an outside linebacker because his pass rushing skills are not good enough.Plus when has Bill ever drafted a 6-2 guy to play outside rush linebacker consistently. Thus , in the sub package either Spikes or Hightower is coming off.
Spikes had a good superbowl performance, but i think that has over inflated fan's estimation of his abilities in pass coverage.He is simply not good enough in pass coverage. I think Hightower eventually takes his snaps in sub defence more so because of his occasional rush ability and more speed.
I disagree. Hightower figures to be an OLB in the 34 base.
In sub package, I do think he is going to be more a LB than a DE.
I expect him to be used mich like Mike Vrable was before 2007 when he started to exclusively rush the passer in sub.
As usual, the expectations of the rookies is too high. We shouldn't expect them to plug and play well until (at the earliest) December. If one or more can, that's great, but we shouldn't expect it.
This creates a weakness for a few months, on the field when they are playing, and because those four to five guys will require roster spots that could be filled by more capable vets (although lesser athletes).
Jones, in particular, just doesn't look physically ready to play pro football. I'm thinking it will be into 2013 before he starts to have significant impact. In the meantime, he's taking a roster spot that someone like Carter could have.
Accepting your analysis/structuring of the DL, I'm not sure I see the heavy competition for EIGHT linebacker positions (including the OLB/43DE group/sub).
LINEBACKERS AND PASS-RUSHERS
ILB Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, STer (White is my fav to make the 53)
DE/OLB Jones, Ninkovich, Bequette, Scott, Cunningham
ILB/OLB Hightower
This is 10 players for 9-10 positions. What have I missed?
As a side issue, one of the Carter's could very well be on the Game 1 53 man squad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyJohnson
If you are considering Jones and Bequette DL (as well Carter), then you are using a 43 lineup, and we will need more than 6-7 DL. If you want to use a 34 move those 2 to OLB and then 6-7 is fine. Either way, you are 2 short on DL.
We need at least 6 300lb+ DL whether its 34 or 43, because then RDE would be the 260-270 lb guys.
LDE Deaderick, Brace
NT/DT Wilfork, Warren
RDE/DT Fanene, Love
Fit Pryor in there wherever you want,and unless someone surprises and takes one of their job all or all but 1 of the 7 are making the team.
The 43 RDE/34 OB/Sub DE group is Jones, Hightower(who can also play elsewehere), Ninkovich, Cunningham, Scott, Bequette.
This is where there will be heavy competition.
Accepting your analysis/structuring of the DL, I'm not sure I see the heavy competition for EIGHT linebacker positions (including the OLB/43DE group/sub).
LINEBACKERS AND PASS-RUSHERS
ILB Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, STer (White is my fav to make the 53)
DE/OLB Jones, Ninkovich, Bequette, Scott, Cunningham
ILB/OLB Hightower
This is 10 players for 9-10 positions. What have I missed?
As a side issue, one of the Carter's could very well be on the Game 1 53 man squad.
If you are saying 9-10 players, ypu have
Mayo
Hightower
Spikes
Ninko
Scott
Cunningham
Fletcher
Bequette
Carpenter
as 9 without any special teamers at the position, and White, Tarpanian, Koutivedes as special teamers accounted for.
Realistically, it is typically 3-4 ILB and 4 OLBs plus special teamers.
That means if we assume Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Ninko are locks, we have:
Fletcher, Carpenter fighting for 1 or 2 spot and
Scott, Cunningham, Bequette fighting for 2.
And as you said that includes neither Carter.
That seems like a lot of competition to me.
As usual, the expectations of the rookies is too high. We shouldn't expect them to plug and play well until (at the earliest) December. If one or more can, that's great, but we shouldn't expect it.
This creates a weakness for a few months, on the field when they are playing, and because those four to five guys will require roster spots that could be filled by more capable vets (although lesser athletes).
Jones, in particular, just doesn't look physically ready to play pro football. I'm thinking it will be into 2013 before he starts to have significant impact. In the meantime, he's taking a roster spot that someone like Carter could have.
Patriot first round picks have a history of not conforming to what you just said much more often than conforming to it.
We agree. The amount of competition is a matter of semantics. For me, I see 9 players (perhaps plus a Carter) competing for 8-9 roster spots. Even without injuries, there is room for all the players you listed below, plus one special teamer. I think that having another two special teamers is often as a function of injuries, or a player just needing to be cut (Cunningham anyone). For me, there is room on the roster for all 9 position players listed.
However, I certainly could see us losing two of Cunningham, Fletcher and Carpenter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyJohnson
If you are saying 9-10 players, ypu have
Mayo
Hightower
Spikes
Ninko
Scott
Cunningham
Fletcher
Bequette
Carpenter
as 9 without any special teamers at the position, and White, Tarpanian, Koutivedes as special teamers accounted for.
Realistically, it is typically 3-4 ILB and 4 OLBs plus special teamers.
That means if we assume Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Ninko are locks, we have:
Fletcher, Carpenter fighting for 1 or 2 spot and
Scott, Cunningham, Bequette fighting for 2.
And as you said that includes neither Carter.
That seems like a lot of competition to me.
How many "pure" DL's do you see us keeping. In the listing below, you have us keeping 6-7. If this is accurate, do we have any DL competition at all? Do we have any other options in case of injury?
I am fine with this list of 6-7. However, I see Belichick picking up a player or two before camp for competition, as camp fodder (to take camp reps) and for insurance against injuries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyJohnson
.
LDE Deaderick, Brace
NT/DT Wilfork, Warren
RDE/DT Fanene, Love
Fit Pryor in there wherever you want,and unless someone surprises and takes one of their job all or all but 1 of the 7 are making the team.
How many "pure" DL's do you see us keeping. In the listing below, you have us keeping 6-7. If this is accurate, do we have any DL competition at all? Do we have any other options in case of injury?
I am fine with this list of 6-7. However, I see Belichick picking up a player or two before camp for competition, as camp fodder (to take camp reps) and for insurance against injuries.
I don't think you can leave Pryor out of the mix. He was having a major impact last year before going on IR.
My best guess is that the Pats keep 9 DBs and 16 "front 7" players. I group them into 3 groups: DL (DT and 3-4 DE), DE/OLB, and LB (ILB and OLB). I'm guessing that the eventual breakdown will be something like 6-5-5 or 6-4-6, though it will be very hard to get down to the final numbers:
DL: Wilfork, Love, Fanene and Pryor seem set to me, barring injury. Warren, Brace and Deaderick could be fighting for 2 spots, with my money being on Brace being the odd man out. Deaderick seems the safest bet of the three. Marcus Harrison is a long shot at best, and Marcus Forston will probably go on PUP/IR or to the PS. A veteran signing is still a possibility. Aubrayo Franklin is probably the biggest name available right now, but there will be cuts.
DE/OLB: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jake Bequette seem pretty safe to me, again barring injury. Travis Scott probably has the inside track on another spot. That would leave Jermaine Cunningham and Markell Carter battling for the last spot, though the Pats could keep neither and go with more LBs. Andre Carter is a wild card. You could make an argument for counting Ninkovich among the LBs, but either way he's going to be on the roster.
LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower and Brandon Spikes are givens, again with a caveat for injury. That leaves 2-3 spots for Dane Fletcher, Bobby Carpenter, Jeff Tarpinian, Tracy White and Niko Koutouvides.
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I agree with your analysis and breakdowns. Specifically, I agree with you note that we may choose to lose both Cunningham and Markell Carter in order to keep another LB or STer. As of now, it seems right to keep Fletcher, Carpenter and White.
BTW, Andy's list included Pryor. I agree that 6-7 of Andy's DL's should make the team. The question mark for me is Pryor's health, not his ability. If all are helthy, I agree with you that Brace is #7 and could lose his roster spot if we keep only six DL's.
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LDE Deaderick, Brace
NT/DT Wilfork, Warren
RDE/DT Fanene, Love
Fit Pryor in there wherever you want,and unless someone surprises and takes one of their job all or all but 1 of the 7 are making the team.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mayoclinic
I don't think you can leave Pryor out of the mix. He was having a major impact last year before going on IR.
My best guess is that the Pats keep 9 DBs and 16 "front 7" players. I group them into 3 groups: DL (DT and 3-4 DE), DE/OLB, and LB (ILB and OLB). I'm guessing that the eventual breakdown will be something like 6-5-5 or 6-4-6, though it will be very hard to get down to the final numbers:
DL: Wilfork, Love, Fanene and Pryor seem set to me, barring injury. Warren, Brace and Deaderick could be fighting for 2 spots, with my money being on Brace being the odd man out. Deaderick seems the safest bet of the three. Marcus Harrison is a long shot at best, and Marcus Forston will probably go on PUP/IR or to the PS. A veteran signing is still a possibility. Aubrayo Franklin is probably the biggest name available right now, but there will be cuts.
DE/OLB: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jake Bequette seem pretty safe to me, again barring injury. Travis Scott probably has the inside track on another spot. That would leave Jermaine Cunningham and Markell Carter battling for the last spot, though the Pats could keep neither and go with more LBs. Andre Carter is a wild card. You could make an argument for counting Ninkovich among the LBs, but either way he's going to be on the roster.
LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower and Brandon Spikes are givens, again with a caveat for injury. That leaves 2-3 spots for Dane Fletcher, Bobby Carpenter, Jeff Tarpinian, Tracy White and Niko Koutouvides.
2Likes
Re: Sub vs. base -- who plays when?
Linear Mode
