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Always enjoyed Kirwan's articles and this one was very interesting.....
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Re: Pat Kirwan: The Patriots and the 'Big Nickel Defense'
I'm a big Pat Kirwan fan, but to be honest I was a little disappointed by this article. I didn't think it added much to the basic fact that defenses are struggling with the combination of the spread offsense and the big, versatile TEs who can overpower DBs and outpace LBs. If the Jets really think that LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell are the answer to Gronk and Hernandez, I can't wait to see what happens.
The word "hybrid" is used a lot these days, but clearly it seems like defenses need big, physical guys with size and movement skills. I call them "raptors" for lack of a better term. From this point of view you can look at the Pats' secondary and see that there are an awful lot of guys with decent size (5'10"-6'2" and around 190-205#) who are physical enough to play safety and quick enough to play CB: Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington, Tavon Wilson, Steven Gregory, Sterline Moore, Alfonzo Dennard, Will Allen. That's 8 guys with tremendous positional versatility. Pat Chung is really the only "traditional" safety with any significant role. I personally think that that kind of approach is more likely to be successful than trying to ask guys like Landry to cover.
If you liked Kirwan's article, Jeff Chadiha from ESPN had a really great article last year on the evolution of the safety position:
Among other things, Chadiha talks about the TE dilemma and dealing with offensive mis-matches:
Quote:
Offenses also are using weapons that give them a greater advantage. For example, the Patriots use two athletic tight ends (6-6, 265-pound Rob Gronkowski and 6-1, 245-pound Aaron Hernandez) to create mismatches. Newsome recently a watched a Green Bay game and was stunned by a back-shoulder catch that Packers tight end Jermichael Finley, who's listed at 6-5 and 247 pounds, pulled off against perfect coverage by Saints strong safety Roman Harper. One thought filled Newsome's head on that play: How do you stop that?
Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez joked that there are so many agile tight ends that teams may have to start scouting basketball games for safety talent. "Maybe they should find some 2-guard types, 6-foot-4 guys who can match up with tight ends," he said.
"You will get to the point where you're playing with four cornerbacks out there," [Jets DC Mike] Pettine said. "The day of the true safety is about over because of the speed of the game. When we're looking at safeties in the draft, once you get past the no-brainer guys -- like Eric Berry -- we're looking at slower college cornerbacks. Because right now, safeties are becoming like fullbacks on offense. They're becoming extinct."
Guys like Brandon Hardin (6'3" 217# with 4.38 speed and a 6.8 3-cone) are exactly that kind of "2-guard" option that Gonzalez was talking about. Hardin was taken in the 3rd round after being initially considered a late round prospect.
This discussion may also explain why the Pats "reached" for Tavon Wilson in the 2nd round - guys with actual safety experience with the kind of quickness and man coverage ability needed are rare birds. One can argue that neither Mark Barron nor Harrison Smith actually fits that prescription, which is partly why I wasn't as enthusiastic about those guys as man others on this board. Tavon Wilson arguably does, which could make him a very valuable asset. If not, there are 7 other guys currently on the roster with some combination of those skills.
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. "OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid
"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi
Re: Pat Kirwan: The Patriots and the 'Big Nickel Defense'
Quote:
Originally Posted by mayoclinic
Guys like Brandon Hardin (6'3" 217# with 4.38 speed and a 6.8 3-cone) are exactly that kind of "2-guard" option that Gonzalez was talking about. Hardin was taken in the 3rd round after being initially considered a late round prospect.
This discussion may also explain why the Pats "reached" for Tavon Wilson in the 2nd round - guys with actual safety experience with the kind of quickness and man coverage ability needed are rare birds. One can argue that neither Mark Barron nor Harrison Smith actually fits that prescription, which is partly why I wasn't as enthusiastic about those guys as man others on this board. Tavon Wilson arguably does, which could make him a very valuable asset. If not, there are 7 other guys currently on the roster with some combination of those skills.
Interesting thoughts on this, and it makes me wonder how high the Pats were looking at Brandon Hardin if Wilson wasn't available.
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Re: Pat Kirwan: The Patriots and the 'Big Nickel Defense'
Kirwan suggests, " If I was looking to build a Big Nickel package and still needed a safety, I would look closely at this list for an answer: Deon Grant, Chris Crocker, Jim Leonard, Abram Elam, Sean Jones, and James Ihedigbo."
I agree with Gonzalez. As an NFL scout I'd look at college 2 gards with size. But I'd want someone who'd played a contact sport as well as hoops.
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Re: Pat Kirwan: The Patriots and the 'Big Nickel Defense'
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Gr8est
Interesting thoughts on this, and it makes me wonder how high the Pats were looking at Brandon Hardin if Wilson wasn't available.
If you consider that BB may have been looking for someone with safety kind of physicality and hitting ability who wouldn't be easily overpowered, but CB kind of coverage skills who could play zone and man schemes, then there weren't very many options. Mark Barron, Harrison Smith, George Iloka and Antonio Allen really didn't have the coverage ability. Jamell Fleming may not have had the physicality. The guys who seem closet to having both were Tavon Wilson, Alfonzo Dennard, Trumaine Johnson and Brandon Hardin. And the Pats ended up getting 2 of those 4 guys. One could even argue that Nate Ebner offers some developmental potential in this regard, given his combination of movement skills (6.59 3-cone) and physicality.
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To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. "OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid
"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi
Re: Pat Kirwan: The Patriots and the 'Big Nickel Defense'
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsWickedPissah
Kirwan suggests, " If I was looking to build a Big Nickel package and still needed a safety, I would look closely at this list for an answer: Deon Grant, Chris Crocker, Jim Leonard, Abram Elam, Sean Jones, and James Ihedigbo."
Yeah, that's part of why I wasn't overly impressed with that particular article. It takes a heck of a lot more than throwing 3 safeties out there. James Ihedigbo and 5'8" Jm Leonard are not the answer to Gronk and Hernandez.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsWickedPissah
I agree with Gonzalez. As an NFL scout I'd look at college 2 gards with size. But I'd want someone who'd played a contact sport as well as hoops.
I always thought someone like ex-Celtic off-guard Dennis Johnson would have made a heck of a DB, and I can see college scouts scouring the college BB ranks for guys who might be good conversion prospects. But as Patchick pointed out about Nate Ebner, coming form a contact sport background is a huge advantage when transitioning to football. Ebner's combination of movement skills and physicality are part of what make him very intriguing as a developmental DB.
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. "OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid
"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi
Re: Pat Kirwan: The Patriots and the 'Big Nickel Defense'
Quote:
Originally Posted by mayoclinic
Yeah, that's part of why I wasn't overly impressed with that particular article. It takes a heck of a lot more than throwing 3 safeties out there. James Ihedigbo and 5'8" Jm Leonard are not the answer to Gronk and Hernandez.
I always thought someone like ex-Celtic off-guard Dennis Johnson would have made a heck of a DB, and I can see college scouts scouring the college BB ranks for guys who might be good conversion prospects. But as Patchick pointed out about Nate Ebner, coming form a contact sport background is a huge advantage when transitioning to football. Ebner's combination of movement skills and physicality are part of what make him very intriguing as a developmental DB.
How many teams have a Gronk/Hern tandem?
How many are real "two TE offenses"?
What is interesting is how few TE's seem to be coming from college. This might give defenses a more even keel if more teams start going two TE's.
Re: Pat Kirwan: The Patriots and the 'Big Nickel Defense'
Quote:
Originally Posted by patsfaninpittsburgh
How many teams have a Gronk/Hern tandem?
How many are real "two TE offenses"?
Quote:
Two-TE set is latest copycat trend
By nature, NFL coaches are copycats. And why not? If a coach finds a strategy that works, why not copy it?
Even though this year's draft wasn't considered a very good one for tight ends, I noted that five of the first six tight ends went to AFC teams. Watching how Patriots coach Bill Belichick destroyed defenses out of two-tight end sets with Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, one of the emerging trends for 2012 will be more two-tight end sets in the AFC.
The new Colts offense under QB Andrew Luck will feature tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, the next two players the Colts drafted after Luck. Minus Peyton Manning, the Colts, according to ESPN Stats & Information, ran two-tight end sets for only 242 plays last season, fourth-fewest in the league.
The Bengals drafted tight end Orson Charles in the fourth round and plan to use two tight ends a little more this year. More might be expected out of the Chargers and Titans after their selections of tight ends.
"It is a matchup nightmare,'' Colts coach Chuck Pagano told reporters over the weekend. "Coming off of the AFC Championship Game, nobody knew better than the Ravens going into that game with the two guys [Gronkowski and Hernandez] that [the Patriots] have. It is across the league. You can see it more and more every year.
"You can choose to put a defensive back on them, and they will be undersized, they will get outmuscled and they will get 'big-boyed' for the ball. Then you can put a safety or a linebacker on them and they can't run with them. So we feel like the two guys [Allen and Fleener] that we added, and Dominique [Jones] is a physical presence, that guy is 260 pounds and moving around really well. It is a matchup nightmare for any defense."
The two-tight end trend isn't going to change the league's escalation of three- and four-receiver sets. Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and most of the top quarterbacks in the NFC will continue to work out of spread sets and no-huddle offenses because that strategy works perfectly for these quarterbacks.
The NFC is now the conference with the best quarterbacks, and it would be foolish to change what's working. Seven of the top 11 teams in the number of three-receiver plays were in the NFC. But it makes a lot of sense for more two-tight end sets in the AFC because the conference is in transition at quarterback.
Nine of the league's 14 3-4 defenses are in the AFC. Placing a tight end on each side of the offensive line leaves those defenses wondering which side is the strong side. The extra tight end could slow down some of the league's top pass-rushing 3-4 linebackers.
With the NFC having 11 4-3 defenses, the guessing game for blockers is simpler. Most 4-3 defenses place their best pass-rusher on the right side. A good left tackle can often handle him. The better the left tackle, the better the chances of the offense slipping a tight end into routes.
The Patriots aren't the only AFC team thriving in two tight-end formations. The Texans, Steelers and Ravens ranked in the top 11 for two-tight end plays. They all made the playoffs. In fact, all six AFC playoff teams ranked among the top 17 for plays with two tight ends.
"I just think you see more and more [two-tight end sets] with the fullback position kind of dying out in college football, everybody is in the spread,'' Pagano said. "They may use a tight end, but he is not in-line blocking. He is not lined up, typically, on the line, unless you come from a Stanford or a Clemson where they are in a pro-style offense. So those guys are flexed out. They are really glorified wide receivers."
The AFC is already making a defensive adjustment to counter the success of the Patriots. The Bills drafted cornerback Stephon Gilmore with the idea of using him to slow down Gronkowski or Hernandez. Over time, AFC teams will try to get bigger and more physical at cornerback to match up better against teams with two good tight ends.
The 2013/14 draft class is potentially loaded at the TE position - the best since 2010, maybe even better depending on the juniors. Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, Levine Toilolo, Joseph Fauria, Michael Williams, and others.
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To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. "OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid
"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi
The 2013/14 draft class is potentially loaded at the TE position - the best since 2010, maybe even better depending on the juniors. Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, Levine Toilolo, Joseph Fauria, Michael Williams, and others.
It's the new trend but it will take longer for teams to realize the potential because getting Gronk/Hern was unique in football.
Maybe Indy can with the two TE's they drafted. Where does a draft produce a dynamic duo like ours? Will other teams be willing to draft 2 or 3 TE's in a single year?
I'm not sure any combination of safeties in the league could produce a "big nickel" to stop Gronk/Hern. That doesn't mean the available guys at safety couldn't help out with the less capable versions around the league.
I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the CBs play FS, or to see Tavon Wilson or Steve Gregory spend some time at CB.
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To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. "OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid
"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi
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Pat Kirwan: The Patriots and the 'Big Nickel Defense'
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