Fencer

When making up candidate rosters, we usually don't leave enough room for the specialist players who wind up making it.

So let's take a look at a hypothetical 53, plus game day actives, while accounting for such guys. I'll assume:

• Slater makes the roster.
• Edelman makes the roster.
• White makes the roster.
• Another ST-focused LB makes the roster (Koutivides/Tarpinian).
• A fullback makes the roster.
• K/P/LS are on the roster (duh).
• Kick returners can be found from among position players and/or the above.
• Andre Carter and Logan Mankins aren't on the opening roster, and by the time they join the team they're taking spots from guys who have been IRed.
• I'm correct that 46 is the current number of game day actives.

I've already used 8 slots, leaving 45/38 to go.

It would be fairly comfortable to say that that includes:

QB (3) -- Obvious ones, 1 inactive.
RB (3) -- Obvious ones, all active. This is a little light even with a FB, but so be it.
TE (3) -- Obvious ones, all active.
WR (5) -- Lloyd, Welker, 3 others (e.g. Gaffney/Branch/Stallworth), 1 inactive.
OT (4) -- The one who isn't Vollmer/Solder/Cannon inactive.
Interior OL (5) -- Waters/Koppen/Connolly/Gallery active, one younger/less established guy inactive.

That's 23 total/19 active on offense, leaving 22/19 for defense.

CB (5) -- McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Dennard
S (4) -- Chung, Wilson, Gregory, other, 1 inactive
ILB/LB (4) -- Mayo, Hightower, Spikes, Fletcher, 1 inactive
LB/DE (3) -- Ninkovich, Jones, Bequette
Lighter pure DL (3) -- Fanene, Pryor, Warren, 1 inactive
Heavier pure DL (3) -- Wilfork, Love, Deaderick/Brace

That's 22 total/19 active. The numbers balance!!

Notable cuts include:

• Chad Johnson
• Cunningham
• The losers in various position battles I've noted above
• The late-round picks (PS fodder)
• Various vets from other teams (Allen, Carpenter, Gonzalez)

Edit: Scott. Every time I make one of these lists I completely forget about Scott.

IR could save a couple of guys. So, of course, could skimping at WR, but my base case is that BB keeps a lot of the vet contenders, then doesn't replace whichever one falls by the wayside as the season progresses.

__________________
"To lose one parent may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness." -- Oscar Wilde

Metaphors

Nice work. I think along the same lines when trying to do a roster prediction. Couple of comments:

- Veterans that are used to playing are fighting to the active 46, not the total 53. Unless you are anticipating someone will always be injured for the WRs and sub DTs, I don't think you will see a healthy inactive from the players you list at these positions. They are slated to be active or don't survive the final cut.

- Belichick seems to like having a 4th safety that can take heavy ST reps on the active roster. Unless you see Wilson or Moore doing this (or consider Slater a safety option), then I think another safety makes the active 46. This is kind of a nit-pick since you have an inactive safety and someone from the secondary is bound to be hurt week-to-week.

As your activity shows, this roster is built to survive the inevitable handful of key injuries that strike the Pats every year. Belichick seems to realize that ill-timed injuries to players like Brady, Welker, Wilfork, Neal, Warren, Gronk and Hernandez are probably the only thing separating him from a couple of additional championships. If they have perfect health, some fairly productive players are going to have to get cut.

Palm Beach Pats Fan

The PUP list gave us a good boost last year.

I think we may identify some additional veteran PUP candidates for mid-season depth, besides Carter and Mankins. Gonzales is one obvious candidate, having missed a lot of time last year. Others may include Fletcher, Brace, Gallery, Tarpinian. Some have develop some ouchies they aren't even aware of, in the upcoming months.

__________________
It is what it is, so just go out there and do your job!

ivanvamp

My way-too-early roster projection:

Offense (25)
QB (3) - Brady, Hoyer, Mallett
RB (4) - Vereen, Ridley, Woodhead, one of Fiammetta/Kettani/Larsen, *or* another veteran (Hightower, Grant, etc.)
WR (6) - Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney, Branch, Stallworth (for his speed), Slater (mostly for ST)
TE (3) - Gronkowski, Hernandez, Fells
OL (9) - Mankins, Koppen, Connolly, Waters, Vollmer, Solder, Gallery, Cannon, and Wendell

Defense (25)
DL (9) - Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, Fanene, Bequette, Jones, Warren, A.Carter, Scott
LB (7) - Mayo, Hightower, Spikes, Fletcher, Ninkovich, M.Carter, White (ST?)
CB (5) - McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Dennard
S (4) - Chung, Wilson, Gregory, Edelman (yes, he becomes a safety...just a hunch)

Specialists (3)
LS (1) - Aiken
P (1) - Mesko
K (1) - Gostowski

That's 53 guys. Some of these guys will probably go on PUP because there are always injuries and such. But I'd be very happy with that roster.

Fencer

I think it's OK to model the roster as being light on game-day-active safeties. Slater and Dennard would be the gunners. The other young DBs, plus Edelman & Woodhead, could cover the other "speed" positions on STs.

__________________
"To lose one parent may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness." -- Oscar Wilde

Fencer

Very close to mine. I PUPped Mankins, leaving room for a developmental OT. However, that's not totally needed with Gallery around. I'd also guess MacDonald over Wendell, but that's a weakly-supported hunch.

__________________
"To lose one parent may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness." -- Oscar Wilde

Fencer

Again close to mine. I shadow-rostered A. Carter, leaving room for another safety. You ditched the extra ST ILB and Pryor, making room for Scott (who I should probably have accommodated) and M. Carter.

__________________
"To lose one parent may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness." -- Oscar Wilde