Originally Posted by mgteich
That is your perspective. I disagree. I think it most unlikely that Belichick goes into the draft expecting to get Carter-like production in 2012 from someone he drafts.
Excellent post. The Draft hype of six picks and six solid players is a myth. 17% Cousins....Sorry. I wish for more too. Of our six picks only 17% have a chance by league average of being NFL difference makers versus JAGs or even out of the NFL within three years. (Difference maker is long time starter, valued second Team or ST impact player, or of Pro Bowl type status presently or projected in the short future). Most of those who develop into top tier Drafted Players of that Draft Class have a shelf life of three years to develop into their potential. That corresponds to first contract years top to bottom upon average.
McCourty- Excellent year one. JAG type year two. This is a very important year for him and the Pats as far as his Team development of his roster spot. If he fails again this year or pedestrian type play, his roster spot is in jeopardy in 2013 and he is not
in the 17%.
Brace-First and second year and last year IR were disasters for him and the Pats for to where he was Drafted. Injuries have carried him over to a fourth year for determination but he is a possible cut in TC. Hence three years and done before he gets to that fourth year. Not of the 17%.
Gronk-Yes and Yes
Look at the Von Miller, J.J. Watt, Ryan Kerrigan type guys and even to a lesser extent Brooks Reed who is a step down, for the type of DE or OLB that the Pats hope will be in the magic 17%. You Draft wrong and it hurts.
My Point is with FAs you have the tape and see how they have developed in the NFL.
Draft Choices like Brace and Cunningham were decent in college but a miss so far in the NFL.
If you have to pay a Kamerion Wimbley or even a Manny Lawson who I think can flourish here and be had for reasonable dollars. might be a better route than rifling the third or fourth rounders that BB will without doubt trade down into .....for value!!! Which has proven mixed results at best. Maybe he will finally see it was not worth the chase and just go with talent this year.
I think that Vin Curry and Crick have that Aldo Smith J.J.Watt type of possible success if they can pick two in the top end of the Draft where the are. They won't get Ingram of Couples, but if you can forecast, perhaps these guys have the consistency from their college careers.
I would consider the FA long and hard though.
How about this? It's for fun. Don't question my ancestry. First of all the CAP is crap we can all agree. It could happen.
The Vikes two biggest needs are OT and WR. They cannot compete with the Bears, Lions and Packers right now. The only chance is how QB Ponder develops. They have thrown all in on the success of that team in the future on him. They have cut three valuable Veterans to make CAP room that they have not as yet invested. In the first round at number three choice they have to go OT Kali. He will be a good pick but not a difference maker.
l have mentioned this before but rumors about Jared Allen have surfaced. He is owed $11m in 2012 and $13m in 2013. He is just 30, three year older than Marion who will make about $17m per year. Allen had 22 sacks which is two more than Anderson and Carter combined and is bigger than both (and younger than Carter). He is a decent Locker room guy and has a Matt Light sense of humor.
Would you swap a first and third to the Vikes for him?
Why for the Pats?
I see a perfect fit for the Pats.
I see a contract extension to get the $ down.
I see a guy like Allen might go after a ring
I see help for Brady to get more rings....now....not three years from now while kids develop. Why do people not understand this?
Why for the Vikes?
They are obviously taking the younger route.
Allen won't cut his Salary for a Team that has not chance for him to get a ring.
If the Vikes move Allen he saves them CAP space and dollars.....And the biggest part of the deal,
they have a first rounder late to go get Wallace from the Steelers who everyone knows they can't match $
and the Vikes now have CAP space to trade to tandem with Ponder and add to Harvin and Rudolph.
The fan base won't go crazy if they dump Allen if they bring in Wallace to help Ponder.
The Vikes have two very good young DEs who are behind Allen.
Pats walk away with Allen and what FAs we have landed and pick up some depth for the next few years in the Draft and 2012 will be fun.