Deus Irae

Based upon nothing from an insider, but solely on what I've heard/read, I expect Carter to return and Anderson to walk.

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SeymourTrophies

The hit rate for drafting pass rushers is even lower when you give it a go once every three years. We've seen good to fantastic pass rushers go in the 2nd round for years.

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DW Toys

Excellent post. The Draft hype of six picks and six solid players is a myth. 17% Cousins....Sorry. I wish for more too. Of our six picks only 17% have a chance by league average of being NFL difference makers versus JAGs or even out of the NFL within three years. (Difference maker is long time starter, valued second Team or ST impact player, or of Pro Bowl type status presently or projected in the short future). Most of those who develop into top tier Drafted Players of that Draft Class have a shelf life of three years to develop into their potential. That corresponds to first contract years top to bottom upon average.

Example:
McCourty- Excellent year one. JAG type year two. This is a very important year for him and the Pats as far as his Team development of his roster spot. If he fails again this year or pedestrian type play, his roster spot is in jeopardy in 2013 and he is not in the 17%.

Brace-First and second year and last year IR were disasters for him and the Pats for to where he was Drafted. Injuries have carried him over to a fourth year for determination but he is a possible cut in TC. Hence three years and done before he gets to that fourth year. Not of the 17%.

Gronk-Yes and Yes

Look at the Von Miller, J.J. Watt, Ryan Kerrigan type guys and even to a lesser extent Brooks Reed who is a step down, for the type of DE or OLB that the Pats hope will be in the magic 17%. You Draft wrong and it hurts.
My Point is with FAs you have the tape and see how they have developed in the NFL.

Draft Choices like Brace and Cunningham were decent in college but a miss so far in the NFL.

If you have to pay a Kamerion Wimbley or even a Manny Lawson who I think can flourish here and be had for reasonable dollars. might be a better route than rifling the third or fourth rounders that BB will without doubt trade down into .....for value!!! Which has proven mixed results at best. Maybe he will finally see it was not worth the chase and just go with talent this year.

I think that Vin Curry and Crick have that Aldo Smith J.J.Watt type of possible success if they can pick two in the top end of the Draft where the are. They won't get Ingram of Couples, but if you can forecast, perhaps these guys have the consistency from their college careers.

I would consider the FA long and hard though.

How about this? It's for fun. Don't question my ancestry. First of all the CAP is crap we can all agree. It could happen.

The Vikes two biggest needs are OT and WR. They cannot compete with the Bears, Lions and Packers right now. The only chance is how QB Ponder develops. They have thrown all in on the success of that team in the future on him. They have cut three valuable Veterans to make CAP room that they have not as yet invested. In the first round at number three choice they have to go OT Kali. He will be a good pick but not a difference maker.

l have mentioned this before but rumors about Jared Allen have surfaced. He is owed $11m in 2012 and $13m in 2013. He is just 30, three year older than Marion who will make about $17m per year. Allen had 22 sacks which is two more than Anderson and Carter combined and is bigger than both (and younger than Carter). He is a decent Locker room guy and has a Matt Light sense of humor.

Would you swap a first and third to the Vikes for him?

Why for the Pats?I see a perfect fit for the Pats.

I see a contract extension to get the $ down.

I see a guy like Allen might go after a ring

I see help for Brady to get more rings....now....not three years from now while kids develop. Why do people not understand this?


Why for the Vikes? They are obviously taking the younger route.

Allen won't cut his Salary for a Team that has not chance for him to get a ring.

If the Vikes move Allen he saves them CAP space and dollars.....And the biggest part of the deal,

they have a first rounder late to go get Wallace from the Steelers who everyone knows they can't match $

and the Vikes now have CAP space to trade to tandem with Ponder and add to Harvin and Rudolph.

The fan base won't go crazy if they dump Allen if they bring in Wallace to help Ponder.

The Vikes have two very good young DEs who are behind Allen.

Pats walk away with Allen and what FAs we have landed and pick up some depth for the next few years in the Draft and 2012 will be fun.
DW Toys

IllegalContact

subscribing to this fantasy and not just go after mario williams is silly

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makoute

Will Carter even be ready by the start of the regular season?

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patfanken

He pulled a calf muscle had surgery and it heals. This isn't like an Achilles or knee damage. He'll be fine by TC

Of the top 3. Anderson and Carter are who we need back. They've both excelled ;last season, and if they come back that year's experience would likely help them to be better. If we could simply bring them back, then we could talk about those top 5 picks and just turn them into talent that we could afford to develop....and be happy if 3 became mere rotational players.

Toys is right about the rarity of having draft picks become impact players. His 17% number is actually even worse when you consider that even when you find one of those 17% he usually doesn't show that impact play until the 2nd year. (ie JPP among many)

Ideally we don't want to have to draft players and need them to start. Signing Anderson and Carter precludes the need to do this.

BTW- Lawson is also my first choice as the 4th year guy to bring in and complete the conversion to a true 3-4 OLB.

All this would be nice, btw- if I could figure out how we are going to pay for any of it. In case you might have noticed we have already signed SEVEN FA's this week

patfanken

Toy's love the idea of Allen coming in. But he'd literally have to come in an cut his pay check in half for the privilege, and even that would be too much. Carter and Anderson, TOGETHER wouldn't cost that much. AND THEN....there is the matter of giving up something in trade, etc.

Toy's if you think on it. This is a kind of a Jets move. You know the kind where they give up draft picks, mortgage their cap situation, and hope the guy does't get hurt. Their is ONLY one guy who the Pats "count on", and pay him like that, and that is TB. Everyone else has to be just satisfied being simply rich

Leemo

Wimbley and Mann y Lawson

captain stone

Bump, before this very urgent question is lost among the Fells/Gallery/Stallworth/PayaTon hoopla.

I've read that the Gonzales/Stallworth/Gallery contracts are for one year each. Gonzales' is for < $1M,
and I hope that Stallworth's & Gallery's are the same. However, Bill needs to put aside a Large portion
of the remaining avail. cap space to sign at least 2 of Wimbley, Anderson, Lawson & Carter.
Those 4 guys are all that remains of the best avail. Pass-Rushers, and the diff. btwn #s 4 & 5
is Grand Canyon-esque.

In 2010, Bill doubled-up on TEs;
in 2011, he doubled-up on RBs;
this year, he must double-up on Pass-Rushers, preferably both in the draft & in free agency.

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Deus Irae

It looks like we're seeing WR being a rehashing of the "throw everything at the wall" strategy they used at the TE position in 2009.

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"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius