mgteich

Of course, Cassell signed right away. $14M isn't bad money for a 7th rounder.

mgteich

Mankins wasn't franchised?????????

Deus Irae

I thought you were referring to the uncapped season.....


The tag issue leading into the lockout season made pointing to it seem a little 'off'.

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

conway

I've been trying to figure out what Welker is worth to the Pats and the rest the league. The franchise number would be $9M+. One or more posters have suggested 3 year/$24M.

I spent some time looking at who has cap space, who doesn't have bigger priority FAs of their own, and who has the need at WR. An additional consideration might be who thinks they can contend in the short term.

My conclusion is that (1) there are few other teams likely to have the cap room and desire to sign Welker and that (2) of those that do, Welker would most likely best fit with the Bengals. The Jags have room, few stud FAs of their own, and a need at WR. But I don't think they really expect to contend next year. Redskins are similarly situated. The Bengals have lots of cap space and limited FA issues of their own (Leon Hall being a notable exception). However, even the Bengals might not have too much interest. The West Coast Offense, as I understand it. does not particularly value the slot receiver. They already have one stud receiver and one promising TE. And one or more of these teams may look to draft a WR.

Additionally, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, DeWayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Brandon Lloyd, Reggie Wayne, Stevie Johnson, Robert Meachem, Laurent Robinson, among others, are FAs or RFAs, and there's a limited amount of total dollars available. (I'd say only Bowe is likely to be franchised.) So...

In short, I think Welker's value may be less than what some may be projecting. Personally, I would not franchise him. I'd offer him a 4 year/$25M deal, somewhat backloaded so we can cut him later, and let him walk if he turns it down. If so, sign Lloyd or Wayne for less, start Edelman in the slot, and draft a WR. Welker's a very good receiver, but I'm convinced he's NOT worth what his numbers suggest. What kind of numbers would he put up in Jacksonville or Washington with a bad qb? Garbage. Cincy or St. Louis with a mediocre QB? I still doubt he'd reach 1,000 yards. And with his age and injury history, what kind of production will you get in 2 years?

Please, tell me why I'm wrong.

Stilla

Welker went out and played the best ball of his tenure. I hope he gets a big contract. He deserves it.

MassPats38

It could be coming in the absence of a long-term deal, but I expect he gets his long-term deal at a price lower than many anticipate.

Welker has seen the NFL, and knows that his results may not be duplicated elsewhere. He has likely spoken to Branch and knows that story well. From Super Bowl MVP to JAG receiver through a team change.

mgteich

Do you think that Branch has done poorly. Football is a business. Branch has done very well indeed.

Welker is one of the very best in the league. Someone will pay him well for a 3-year commitment.

blackglass3

Which, let's be honest, we can't blame him if he does feel that way. I get that drop was a huge one, but there were plenty of other chances to win the game.

blackglass3

I don't remember what he was demanding, what the Pats offered, or what he ended up getting in Seattle; but I get the feeling Branch would trade back a few million dollars for one or two more rings with NE.

Boomer B

I loves me some Wes Welker.

It will be interesting what Belichick does in this situation. Most fans and writers think the Pats need an outside WR who can stretch the field. If Bill goes after one, that WR would take away some of Wes's catches. Also, the more the season progressed Brady got more comfortable with Hernandez and Welker wasn't seeing the ball as much as he did in the 1st few months of the season. I also think as Brady ages we need to run the ball more which means less receptions. This leads me to believe that the days of 120 receptions for Wes are over. 85 - 95 receptions would be more realistic going forward.

How much do you pay a slot receiver who may not be as important to the offense as he was in the past? If the Pats do not go for an outside WR in free agency then resigning Welker is a must. I think we offer Welker $6 million per year plus incentives, which tops out at $7.5 million. I also think we make the same type of offer to S. Johnson. Bring Branch back at $1 mil per year as a backup, draft a big outside receiver, and we would be set.