Poker

Probably like most of us, and most of the football world, I was really surprised when Belichick took a QB in the 3rd round of the draft this weekend. I had heard of Kevin O'Connell but confess I didn't know much about him at all.

So it got me thinking, as it should when someone as smart as BB does something that you don't see coming--why and why now? And a few points came to mind:

-- Brady has what, maybe 5-6 great years left? It takes at least 2 years in the NFL to develop a starter. I had been thinking the window to start LOOKING for a successor was 3-4 years away. But BB was thinking the window was much sooner, from now to 3 years away.

-- The NFL is a QBs league--you simply cannot overstate the importance of the position, so it is logical to do almost anything you can to land a franchise QB. Think about it--get it right and you are set for like 8-10 years! I would be apoplectic if I were a fan of some team like Chicago, KC, Miami, etc. who have been screwing around for years doing nothing meaningful to attack the single most important factor holding them back.

-- And so, how do you actually go about doing it if you're the PATs? What is your strategy to find the next Tom Brady or Peyton Manning?

-- I had never really thought much about this, but in the wake of this weekend's drafting of KO, I began to imagine that executing this strategy MIGHT, just MIGHT, look very much like what we just saw. Why do I say that?

-- First, the Pats are going to very likely be very good for the next 4-5 years, and will normally be drafting at the bottom of the 1st round. So right away, that knocks them out of the simple drafting of a clear franchise QB that they, ane everyone else, might have identified.

-- You might think they could trade for that draft choice, but what would it cost them to move up? Two firsts? A first and a top existing player? Not BB's style--I don't see it happening that way. I could see BB trading for an undervalued QB on another team, but still hard to find the diamond in the rough that way.

-- No, the more I think about it, I see it being exactly like what they just did with O'Connor. Not another total, ridiculous longshot at 199 in round 6 like the original Brady. That won't happen again. But taking a shot with a 3rd rounder that has many of the right raw materials and has a SHOT of being THAT GUY, and overlooked by others? I love it the more I think about it! (really I like the concept, the idea, the strategy--of course I have no clue if this actual QB will pan out...). But if they wait until it's pretty late in the QB succession cycle, then by definition it's way too late and you can flounder for 5-6 years looking for him--in fact that's the norm now in the NFL.

-- In fact, I wouldn't be surprised, given the upside of it, to see the Pats do exactly the same thing in the draft next year and the year after--use a pretty high pick to made an educated bet on another QB w/potential. And, you would be looking for a certain profile here--not the obvious, finished package, but one with a ton of upside but also a decent chance of a bust. You're going to miss on some, but the payoff is like hitting the lottery.

-- I especially liked the recent move because it was vintage-BB contrarian. Nobody saw it coming, nobody predicted it. To me, if BB somehow pulls off finding Brady's replacement seamlessly, that's where it will come from, and what it will look like--only in hindsight will you see the intelligence and foresight of the move, not as it happens.

pwes

Brady got hurt last year. Cassell sucks as a backup and is leaving within the next year. I think it's about as simple as that. I doubt Beli got him to be Brady's eventual replacement. It's hard to find a good QB. Teams are always drafting the next guy to be the face of the franchise who end up stinking up the field. It's essentially dumb luck to fall upon a really great QB.

Joker

Look at the clip posted in the highlight thread above...this kid looks like a RB...if his arm is accurate, I think he most definitely is the heir apparent to Brady down the line

Poker

Cassell was clearly just a backup--safe, no pizzaz.

No way O'Connell was just another backup QB choice. You're right that's it almost impossible to find a franchise QB. So doesn't it make sense that you have to try some unusual-looking moves like this to find him?

Poker

One other point on this luck factor: there are a few ways to get lucky: there is the Indy 1998 way: suck so bad, usually for multiple seasons, that you get the number 1 pick in the draft the year a Peyton Manning happens to come out.

Or, you find a diamond in the rough. But this second type of "luck" can be made somewhat more stategic if you explicitly try for those QBs. You might need 4-5 tries to get it right.

Disco Volante

I see no reason to believe that Brady's years at top form will be any less than those of Favre or Jeff Garcia - who both just came off Pro Bowl years at age 38.

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pwes

After 4 or 5 times I'd call it it luck.

Metaphors

Tom Brady 6'4" 225 lb
Matt Cassel 6'4" 232 lb
Matt Gutierrez 6'4" 231 lb
Kevin O'Connell 6'5" 235 lb

Cassel and Gutierrez were flyers, trying to find a diamond in the rough. O'Connell has the skill set and intangibles to progress as far as he wants to go. He is raw and just about every part of his game needs to be fine-tuned, but he will have a fine example to follow every day in practice.

Some posters have mentioned that he may lack the pocket presence of Brady and that may be something that you can't teach. Fair point and something to watch this pre-season.

I'm not sure the Pats see Brady in O'Connell. I think they see amazing physical skills that need to be smoothed out with hard work and repetition. He is in a perfect situation to succeed...not to be the next Brady, but to reach his own potential which should be plenty good enough to be a solid NFL starting QB.

sieglo

Last year, only the Pats first rounder made the team (excepting Richardsen, who was on IR and doesn't really count).

So why not take a flyer with a 3rd rounder? It's a pick you're going to waste anyway. If the Pats were smart, they'd just package everything after the seond round and trade for better picks next year anyway.

RayClay

The difference between him and Cassel and Guitierez is they expended a pick of some value on this guy.

Cassell showed nothing in college except he competed with top QBs. A roll of the dice in the 7th.

I believe they've been following this kid and he's had a poor supporting cast so they've had to project.

I've seen reports on him as a definite potential starter raw materials wise.

More than a roll of the dice, less than a sure thing. They've got the time if he has the patience, character etc.

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