01-24-2008, 08:47 AM
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#131
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In the Starting Line-up
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 4,210
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Re: Why the Giants have virtually no shot to win the Super Bowl
Quote:
Originally Posted by spacecrime
It can, but there is not a 50-50 chance of either team winning. An upset is called an upset because it is unexpected. If it is very unexpected, it is because it is unlikely to happen.
Any given Sunday victories require two things: for the lesser team to play very well, and for the better team to play badly.
The Pats would have to play very badly. It could happen. The race is not always to the swift, nor the contest to the strong, but that's the way to bet them.
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Take a deck of cards. The chances of drawing a heart randomly is 1/4.
The chance of drawing a heart three times in a row is considerably less.
The giants just did the equivalent of drawing a heart three times in a row to get where they are now. That's very unlikely. That's why teans without a top 10 O or D rarely play in the Super Bowl.
But since the Super Bowl itself is one game, the chances of the Giants "drawing another heart" is back to 1/4. The improbability of their season to this point does not factor into future performance. All that matters is the next 60 minutes.
I agree the Pats will have to play badly for the Giants to win. I just don't agree that the Giants have "virtually no shot" to win just because they didn't have a top 10 offense or defense in the regular season. |
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