VJCPatriot

With just one game to go in the 2010 season, the New England Patriots, currently the #1 offense in the entire NFL, have already amassed 480 points. By scoring just 20 more points in week 17 (12 below their season average), they will become only the 12th NFL offense ever to score 500 or more points in a season.

Although the 2010 New England offense is not as prolific as the 2007 offense, you can make the argument that they are more efficient and reliable. The main difference between the 2010 version and the 2007 version is the balance on offense. The running game has been utilized more in the double tight end set. The talented rookie tight ends have contributed greatly as well. But let's breakdown the stats instead of just making broader generalizations.

Overall Offense
2007 589 points. 36.8 ppg.
Run ATT 451
Run % 43.5
Run YPC 4.1
Run TDs 17
Total Run Yards 1849
Pass ATT 586
Pass % 56.5
Pass YPA 8.3
Pass TDs 50
Total Pass Yards 4731
QB rating 116.0

2010 480 points through 15 games. 32.0 ppg.
Run ATT 409
Run % 46.1
Run YPC 4.4
Run TDs 18
Total Run Yards 1792
Pass ATT 478
Pass % 53.9
Pass YPA 7.7
Pass TDs 34
Total Pass Yards 3526
QB rating 108.4

Tight End Contribution
2007
9 catches 70 yards 2 TDs
36 catches 389 yards 6 TDs
Totals 45 catches 479 yards 8 TDs
Percentage TE catches 45/403 = 11.2%
Percentage TE yards = 479/4731 = 10.1%
Percentage TE TDs = 10/50 = 20%


2010 through 15 games
5 catches 42 yards 1 TD
36 catches 444 yards 9 TDs
45 catches 563 yards 6 TDs
Totals 86 catches 1049 yards 16 TDs
Percentage TE catches = 86/314 = 27.4%
Percentage TE yards = 1049/3526 = 29.8%
Percentage TE TDs = 16/34 = 47.1%

As you can see the Patriots see a marked increase in the utilization of tight ends and tight end productivity in 2010. This reflects perhaps a shift in offensive philosophy or merely an increase in talent in the position and thus higher utilization of the personnel to maximize the talent there. Take the numbers as you will but the increase in TD percentage from tight ends is particulary eyepopping to me, jumping from 20% to 47% which accounts for nearly half of the team's touchdowns in 2010.

The main common factor with these two offenses is that Brady is the trigger man for both offenses and he is amazingly efficient in both seasons. The 2007 offense is more explosive through the air but averages less yardage on the ground and runs a lower percentage of running plays. The increased utilization of TEs and increased offensive balance is evident from the numbers. We can revisit the final numbers after the Dolphins game but I don't expect them to change much overall.

Conclusion - the Patriots 2010 offense is extremely efficient, more balanced than 2007, and is quite likely to join the all time great offenses with 500+ points scored in a season. It makes you appreciate all the more the quality of football we are seeing in 2010 and just what a special quarterback we have in Tom Brady.

(Other all-time scoring NFL offenses.)

__________________

TriplecHamp

cool story and all but I could care less honestly. I want to win that game in February this year.

VJCPatriot

I'm glad you liked my writing. I think what I'm driving at is that the Patriots balance and diversity on offense should make them harder to stop. Even if they don't average as many points on offense as in 2007 I think it will be harder to shut them down in 2010. Which makes it more likely that they can sustain the offense in January and February and hopefully bring another Lombardi trophy to New England.

In particular I think the increased utilization of the Tight Ends is a positive indicator for this offense. Our tight ends - Gronkowski and Herndandez pose very difficult matchup problems for defenses to solve. In 2007 it became evident in the playoffs that the empty shotgun while an effective tool could be countered by rush heavy teams. The fact that Brady can throw or handoff effectively out of the double tight end set makes our offense in 2010 that much harder to predict and thus stop.

__________________

Brettlax3434

I thought it was a very good read. That’s what patsfans.com is for, to blog our thoughts about the Patriots. Earlier in the year I dismissed someone who compared this offense to the 2007 offense. I was wrong, it’s a legit comparison. This offense methodically kills you, while 2007 was extremely explosive. The offenses are different but like the 2007 offense, this one is very very hard to stop.

__________________
Bill Belichick on being introduced as a team (2001): "The players wanted to do it that way; they wanted to come out as a team. We've been doing it since October. ... That's the reason we won. Because we played the game as a team."

TriplecHamp

I meant no disrespect and yes the running game coupled with the tight end play has produced a more versatile and IMO better offense come playoff time but I have a hard time calling any thing one of the "greatest of all time" until after the superbowl. If a team like Baltimore comes in and shuts us down during the divisional round thats what we will probably be remembered by.

borg

18 out of 19 teams couldn't stop the 2007 Pats. Two teams have already stopped this years team with 4 to go (hopefully)...so I don't grasp your point about "harder" to stop this year
But seriously, if you look at both years and use the time of possession numbers to get a points scored/minute possession...

2007....ToP=32:31...Pts/game=36.8...Pts/min=1.13
2010....ToP=28:56...Pts/game=32.0...Pts/min=1.10

Give the 2010 offense equal time as the 2007 offense and this years O scores 35.75 pts/game.

__________________
"In the end, Belichick juiced Moss like an orange, and once all the good pulp was squeezed, he tossed Moss aside. "


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

DropKickFlutie

Great thread.

This year's offense is more multi-faceted and isn't a one trick pony. The tight ends are a double threat to block or catch, which allows the team to pass against run defenses and run against nickel packages. It also improves the rushing average because we aren't telegraphing pre-snap whether we are running or passing.

Did anyone look up the red zone efficiency numbers? I would imagine that the red zone TD conversion numbers would be interesting, and also maybe 3rd down.

convertedpatsfan

Thanks, I was just about to go look that up. This year's offense is really close to the 2007 offense in terms of efficiency, and a big reason for the fewer points is the defense struggled at times to get them the ball back.

I thought defensive/ST TDs might skew the results, but they're quite similar. In 2007, had 2 KO TDs and 6 defensive TDs (3 INT, 3 fumble). In 2010, have 2 KO TDs and 5 defensive TDs (4 INT, 1 fumble).

DropKickFlutie

One note about the tight ends. The trio we have is very talented, but I want to dismiss the assertions made in past years on this forum that the tight ends weren't getting the ball because they simply weren't very good. Ben Watson, playing on a bad Cleveland team with bad QB's, just put up a 61 catch 700 yard season, by far his best of his career after leaving New England.
Benjamin Watson - Cleveland Browns - Career Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

Deus Irae

Reading some of the comments here leaves me with the impression that some people don't remember 2007 all that well. The Patriots had 6 receivers with 30 or more catches, including a tight end and a running back. This year's team will finish with only 5 players reaching that level, unless Tate racks up 8 catches against the Dolphins.

Also, when looking at the run, Maroney and Morris both averaged 4.5 ypc, compared to BJGE's 4.4 this season. The the 2010 running game does get the nod with the third down back production, with Woodhead v. Faulk, as Woodhead's averaging 5.6 ypc compared to Faulk's 4.3 ypc.

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius