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Old 01-01-2011, 04:23 PM   #11
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

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One note about the tight ends. The trio we have is very talented, but I want to dismiss the assertions made in past years on this forum that the tight ends weren't getting the ball because they simply weren't very good. Ben Watson, playing on a bad Cleveland team with bad QB's, just put up a 61 catch 700 yard season, by far his best of his career after leaving New England.
Benjamin Watson - Cleveland Browns - Career Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
Dave Thomas will also be putting together his second consecutive 30+ reception season since leaving the Patriots.
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Old 01-01-2011, 04:27 PM   #12
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

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Did anyone look up the red zone efficiency numbers? I would imagine that the red zone TD conversion numbers would be interesting, and also maybe 3rd down.
2007 was #1 or #2 and this year is #3
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Old 01-01-2011, 04:54 PM   #13
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

Football Outsiders' numbers support the OP assertion of historic team efficiency:
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It should be no surprise that the New England Patriots are still far ahead of the rest of the league in this week's DVOA ratings. Sunday's win over Buffalo saw further improvement from the Pats defense, which is now ranked 20th in the league. In addition, the Patriots' weighted DVOA of 48.3% is now the highest of any team ever, passing the 2004 Steelers and 2007 Patriots. Barring some Brian Hoyer-led faceplant against Miami, the Patriots will be the hottest team going into the playoffs since at least 1993, when our play-by-play stats begin. I took out the "Best DVOA Ever" watch this week, since the results are basically the same as last week, but I'll run those tables one last time after Week 17.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 16 DVOA Ratings
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Old 01-01-2011, 04:55 PM   #14
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

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Reading some of the comments here leaves me with the impression that some people don't remember 2007 all that well. The Patriots had 6 receivers with 30 or more catches, including a tight end and a running back. This year's team will finish with only 5 players reaching that level, unless Tate racks up 8 catches against the Dolphins.

Also, when looking at the run, Maroney and Morris both averaged 4.5 ypc, compared to BJGE's 4.4 this season. The the 2010 running game does get the nod with the third down back production, with Woodhead v. Faulk, as Woodhead's averaging 5.6 ypc compared to Faulk's 4.3 ypc.
2007 was a much more explosive team, more of a quick-strike element to it, so they're very different. The offense this year has had the ball less because of the defensive struggles, but they've also benefited from shorter fields from turnovers too. In 2007, we led the league in yards and points. This year, we lead the league in points but aren't even in the top 10 in yards. So they are very different teams. But in terms of results, they've been quite similar.

One other thing I'd point to as favourable for this year's group is they're getting stronger as the season goes on. In 2007, we averaged 41 over the first 10 games, only once finishing under 30 points. But over the last 6 regular season games, they averaged under 30 points, still very good but a significant drop-off.

This year's team averaged around 27 points per game over the first 8 games, but has really kicked it into gear in the second half averaging 37 points the last 7 games. Hopefully that trend continues this week and into the playoffs.
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Old 01-01-2011, 05:44 PM   #15
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

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Originally Posted by DropKickFlutie View Post
One note about the tight ends. The trio we have is very talented, but I want to dismiss the assertions made in past years on this forum that the tight ends weren't getting the ball because they simply weren't very good. Ben Watson, playing on a bad Cleveland team with bad QB's, just put up a 61 catch 700 yard season, by far his best of his career after leaving New England.
Benjamin Watson - Cleveland Browns - Career Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
The increased productivity of the tight ends in 2010 is by no means an indictment of the ones the Pats fielded in 2007. However the difference in talent and increased utilization is apparent. Ben Watson was not nearly the threat in the endzone that Gronkowski and Hernandez have been. Gronk is also the superior blocker. Meanwhile Hernandez is far more versatile than Watson ever was, the Pats have lined him up all over the field this season to create mismatches.

As for Ben Watson's production in another system and on a bad team, which might arguably inflate his statistic, that really isn't debated here. As a group the Pats 2010 tight ends are far more talented, versatile, and productive than the ones we fielded in 2007. Translating it to the field, this allows the Pats to play two tight end set more often, allowing them to either block and run, play action, or split out on passes all thanks to the versatility and strengths of the TE personnel in 2010.
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Old 01-01-2011, 05:49 PM   #16
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

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The increased productivity of the tight ends in 2010 is by no means an indictment of the ones the Pats fielded in 2007. However the difference in talent and increased utilization is apparent. Ben Watson was not nearly the threat in the endzone that Gronkowski and Hernandez have been. Gronk is also the superior blocker. Meanwhile Hernandez is far more versatile than Watson ever was, the Pats have lined him up all over the field this season to create mismatches.

As for Ben Watson's production in another system and on a bad team, which might arguably inflate his statistic, that really isn't debated here. As a group the Pats 2010 tight ends are far more talented, versatile, and productive than the ones we fielded in 2007. Translating it to the field, this allows the Pats to play two tight end set more often, allowing them to either block and run, play action, or split out on passes all thanks to the versatility and strengths of the TE personnel in 2010.
Route running, creating separation and hands. Both Gronk and AH are superior in those skill sets to BW. I speculate that BW played tense here but I could be wrong. Seemed to drop easy passes, etc.

I respect the year BW had in CLE, maybe he was just more comfortable in that offensive system.
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Old 01-01-2011, 05:50 PM   #17
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

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Originally Posted by Deus Irae View Post
Reading some of the comments here leaves me with the impression that some people don't remember 2007 all that well. The Patriots had 6 receivers with 30 or more catches, including a tight end and a running back. This year's team will finish with only 5 players reaching that level, unless Tate racks up 8 catches against the Dolphins.

Also, when looking at the run, Maroney and Morris both averaged 4.5 ypc, compared to BJGE's 4.4 this season. The the 2010 running game does get the nod with the third down back production, with Woodhead v. Faulk, as Woodhead's averaging 5.6 ypc compared to Faulk's 4.3 ypc.
The 2010 Pats offense will endup with about 80 fewer plays from scrimmage (5.3 fewer/game) which makes sense considering the time of possession is 3:35 mins less than 2007. So maybe a few of these 80 extra plays would get a 6th WR to the 30 catch number you value so much.
Looking at the two teams on a yards/point basis. The '07 team scored 1 point for every 11.16 yds of offense while the '10 team was slighty more efficient scoring 1 point every 11.06 yds.
Using both points/min ( 1.13 vs 1.10) and yds/pt (11.16 vs 11.06)...these two teams are identical
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Old 01-01-2011, 05:58 PM   #18
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

Quote:
Originally Posted by DropKickFlutie View Post
One note about the tight ends. The trio we have is very talented, but I want to dismiss the assertions made in past years on this forum that the tight ends weren't getting the ball because they simply weren't very good. Ben Watson, playing on a bad Cleveland team with bad QB's, just put up a 61 catch 700 yard season, by far his best of his career after leaving New England.
Benjamin Watson - Cleveland Browns - Career Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

But if your QB doesn't trust you, you aren't going to get alot of the ball!
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Old 01-01-2011, 06:13 PM   #19
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

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Football Outsiders' numbers support the OP assertion of historic team efficiency:


FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 16 DVOA Ratings
Not with this defense. That's unpossible!

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Old 01-02-2011, 06:40 AM   #20
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Default Re: 2010 Patriots offense poised to become one of the greatest of all time

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The 2010 Pats offense will endup with about 80 fewer plays from scrimmage (5.3 fewer/game) which makes sense considering the time of possession is 3:35 mins less than 2007. So maybe a few of these 80 extra plays would get a 6th WR to the 30 catch number you value so much.
Looking at the two teams on a yards/point basis. The '07 team scored 1 point for every 11.16 yds of offense while the '10 team was slighty more efficient scoring 1 point every 11.06 yds.
Using both points/min ( 1.13 vs 1.10) and yds/pt (11.16 vs 11.06)...these two teams are identical
Strength of schedule
2007 .469
2010 .507
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