BradyFTW!

It would be irrelevant if we were talking about speed or acceleration, as I've already noted. But guys don't forget how to catch the ball as they age. If he's caught 580 passes out of the backfield, then it's pretty clear that he has good hands. It's one of the few skills that doesn't go away.

Right, because he has 256 touches on the season. The Jets overused him. If he, like Woodhead, only had 113 touches on the year, he'd be fine. If Woodhead had 256 touches, he would be slowed down considerably too. Hence why Belichick never gives RBs 250+ touches anymore- last time he did, it basically ended Corey Dillon's useful career, and Belichick clearly learned from that.

I've already acknowledged that Woodhead is better in the open field, but it says even more about the offenses that they play in. Defenses don't fear Sanchez, so there isn't much open field to run in if you're a Jets RB.

If we're asking which RB is more valuable to the Pats in the Pats' offense, then I could see making a case for Woodhead, but the OP certainly didn't frame it that way, and if anything implied the opposite (would Woodhead have been more valuable to the Jets than LT, to which the answer is an obvious no).

Kasmir

Mea culpa. Every frickin time I published the DVOA and DYAR numbers until this thread I mentioned that Woodhead is just short of qualifying (82 vs 100) for the rushing leaderboard. So you're right: if you take every frickin back in the NFL that FO has DVOA on, regardless of number of carries, Woodhead is only #2. I stand corrected.

He fully qualifies for the #1 DVOA position in receiving leaderboard, but to pick that nit too: if you add every other frickin receiver in the NFL, regardless of number of catches that FO rates, Woodhead drops to #2 in receiving DVOA as well.

I stand corrected. He's only the 2nd best DVOA back in rushing, and the 2nd best DVOA back in receiving. That's in efficiency per play. What about total production?

Woodhead hasn't had enough touches to be #1 in receiving DYAR (cumulative production), but he's still #4 in the NFL by that measure. He doesn't have enough carries to make the rushing DYAR leaderboard, but since it's cumulative it's easy to rank him: he's #9 in the league in absolute production in rushing. (No other unranked rusher would move into the top 10 of DYAR, but Jennings and Ward would move into the top 20).

So despite limited touches, Woodhead has contibuted the 9th most adjusted yards rushing in the league this year, and the 4th most adjusted yards receiving. FO doesn't have a combined leaderboard, but it looks like he'd be about #5 overall in total adjusted yards from scrimmage by running backs this year -- with a fraction of the touches the other leaders have.

To summarize, according to FO's system, Woodhead is so efficient per play that he's delivering elite production despite having limited touches and targets. Hence my modest suggestion that he be given some more touches.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

Deus Irae

91-11 for Woodhead right now. That's a lot of kool aid.

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

Kasmir

I'm certainly not going to argue with you about which statistics you choose to believe, although disbelieving independent statistics that challenge your predisposed beliefs is a pretty good operational indication of prejudice.

Again, I'm not accusing anyone of racial prejudice in this matter, although that certainly may be a direct or indirect factor for some folks. With Woodhead I think it starts with that he doesn't look like a football player, then extends to the discounting of his credentials, and a general Bayesian disbelief that so many people in the NFL could be so wrong about him.

This becomes almost loony denialism about his athletic and physical measurables. Lot's of folks just refuse to believe he's fast and agile, or that he really weighs 195lbs. That's just crazy. The numbers are easy to verify, and the results are visible before our very eyes.

Not to pick on anyone, but someone here swore that there was no way Danny Woodhead had anything like the lower body strength of Kevin Faulk. Despite the evidence of our eyes, and Tedy Bruschi's specifically pointing out how strong his lower body strength is. That's denialism.

I hope I've adequately addressed the denialism about the Football Outsiders numbers. Remember, I didn't cherry pick FO, and they're an inherently objective site that is not part of some pro-Woodhead conspiracy.

Your argument about salaries is another interesting red herring. One thing about underrated players is that they have lesser market value than their true value. Belichick never pays more than market if he doesn't have to. Woodhead was cut by the Jets. He was undrafted. He was unable to get a Division 1 scholarship. He's always proven his detractors wrong. Now, in the NFL, with limited touches, he's a top 5 producer at running back according to the most respected independent statistical system publicly accessible. But you could pick him up off the waiver wire, and sign him for a song. He's the very definition of underrated. Let's check back in two years and see what deal Danny gets when the league catches on to who he really is.

Danny Woodhead has always been underrated, and everything I can see says that's continuing. But I'll bet that at some point soon it'll become undeniable that the little guy really is something special.

Kasmir

I'm sure there's more than enough p*ss for any amount of Koolaid.

Deus Irae

Obviously not, given the 91-11 landslide.

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

MC FLY AZ

KASMIR i think your right on the money. i would love to see woody get 20 carries in a game and have 200 yds. Then maybe these guys will stop thinking that he can't be an every down back.

Its funny people on this forum talk like this season for woodhead is a fluke and they just can't believe it. i think over the next 5 or 6 years he will be one of the most valuable players on the team. and making people look like idiots who ever thought he wasn't............. enough.

patsfan-1982

no one is calling Woodheads season a fluke... but how can you compare Danny Woodhead, to LaDainian Tomlinson, ( a first ballot hall of famer ) Woodheads career numbers are not as good as LT's 2010 season witch is one of the worst of he's career

CheeseMonkeys

True, I knew some people think they are too different to compare, but that's why I asked who is more valuable to their team.

Anyone else think it's a crazy idea to start Woodhead and give him 15+ carries in a game? I think he could do it and be successful. As someone else listed, there are many more running backs with similar height and weight (Barry Sanders, Ray Rice, MJ Drew).

Pessimistic Pete

Woodhead is the ****ing man but you can't compare a starter to a 3rd down back.

If you asked me if BJGE was more valuable than LT then the answer is yes. Same YPC but killing him in TDs and second half of the season production.

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