Patsrock

From what I have figured myself.

A win and your a least a wild card

Can still get in with a loss and

Oakland loss
Miami loss
Indy loss

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TheGodInAGreyHoodie

Nope....

All we need is a win; OR a Mia loss & a Raiders loss.

Worst record we could have is 10-6.

Best record Colts could have is 10-6. But we beat them on tiebreakers.
With Miami having one more loss their best record becomes 9-5.

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amazinPats

Why work on such negative hypotheticals? If we lost that many games to finish the season, I wouldn't want to be in the playoffs. Talk about looking at the bottom.....

TheGodInAGreyHoodie

Obviously we want them to finish the season 14-2. But it is also nice to know what it will take to clinch a playoff spot for the 8th time in 10 years.

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PatsFaninAZ

Does 13-3 lock up a bye yet? Or could the Jets still kick us to the wild card if the loss is to a division team?

Seems to me that the most important results going forward are the 4 division games left by the Pats and Jets.

TheGodInAGreyHoodie

13-3 gets us the wildcard if the Jets win out and our loss is either to the Bills or Fish cause of division record.

13-3 probably gets us the Division title if our loss is to Packers or Bears on Strength of Victory but that is not certain.

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PatsFaninAZ

So, it looks to me as though our strength of victory and the Jets strength of victory, if both teams end up 13-3 would be nearly identical given that we have 14 common opponents. The noncommon opponents are Houston and Denver for the Jets and Indy and SD for the Patriots. Right now, Houston and Denver are 8-16 combined, but are effectively 9-17 combined since they have to play each other. So, the most wins the Jets' noncommon opponents can get to is 15. Indy and SD are 12-12 combined and don't play each other. So, it looks to me as thought he magic number for the Patriots, in terms of clinching Strength of Victory is 3. Any combinations of 3 losses by either the Broncos or Texans (not counting in the game against each other) plus wins by SD and Indy will lock up SOV for the Patriots.

So, it really seems as if victories by the Patriots against the Fish and the Bills, plus at least one more win, will lock up HFA.

pencilneckgeek

Agreed on the conclusion, but note that you're looking at strength of schedule, not SOV, which is based on the records of the teams you beat. The Pats are even further ahead on SOV, because of wins over Balt, SD, and Indy vs. Houston, Denver, and Cleveland (20 wins to 13 now). If both teams finish 13-3 with the Pats losing to GB, that will stand as the SOV tie-breaker. Given the Hou-Den head-to-head, any combination of five other wins by Balt, SD, and Indy or losses by Hou, Den, and Cleveland would give the SOV tiebreaker to the Pats (with Balt at Hou next week to get things started). If the Pats lose to Chi (only) and the Jets win-out, the Chi-GB win differential would reduce the Pats' SOV advantage by a game or two, but they'd still be likely to get HFA.

As others have said, the key requirement is beating both Miami and Buffalo.

ATippett56

Jets won't beat the Steelers on the road and will be lucky to score a point.

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TheGodInAGreyHoodie

Actually it is a bit more complex than that....

If the Pats lose to Packer the relevant teams will be

Pats: Ravens 8-4; Colts 6-6; Chargers 6-6
Jets: Browns 5-7; Bengals 2-10; Texans 5-7

So to win the tiebreaker Pats would need a magic number of 3 wins from Ravens, Colts or Chargers/loses from Browns, Bengals, Texans.

If the Pats lose to the Bears it becomes....

Pats: Ravens 8-4; Colts 6-6; Chargers 6-6; Packers 8-4
Jets: Browns 5-7; Bengals 2-10; Texans 5-7; Bears 9-3

requiring a magic number of 10 wins from Ravens cols, chargers, packers wins/browns, bengals, texans bears losses.

Where it this tie breaker could get really start to favor the Jets would be if the Pats lost to Dolphins and Bears and the Jets lost to the Bills.

So I stand by the idea we probably would win the tiebreaker, but it is not certain.

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