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Football Outsiders: New England Offense on record pace
The Week 12 stats are out from FO. Patriots are number #2 in total team DVOA to Pit, but the offense DVOA has now equaled that of the previous best team in their database, the 2007 Patriots:
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Now let us turn to the team ranked second overall, the New England Patriots. Not learning my lesson from the first paragraph above, I will now damn my personal favorite team by saying nice things about them. This week, the Patriots move ahead of the 2004 Colts as the second-best offense in DVOA history through Week 12. More astonishing is the fact that New England's current DVOA of 45.2% matches the 45.2% offensive DVOA that the record-setting 2007 Patriots put up over the entire season. Remember, the 2007 Patriots faded from otherworldly to merely very good over the second half of the season. If the current Patriots don't have a similar fade, they have a shot to rank as the greatest offense in DVOA history, despite trading a Hall of Fame receiver in midseason
Brady is leading the league in both DYAR and DVOA by a wide margin now:
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Tom Brady is now almost 300 DYAR -- and 15 percentage points of DVOA -- ahead of any other quarterback. Once again, as in 2009, Brady is playing even better than his standard stats would otherwise indicate because he's put up big numbers against a tough slate of defenses. The issue is not as much that the Patriots have played the best defenses in the league -- they've only played four games against top 10 defenses -- and more that their schedule is missing games where Brady could roll up big stats on bad defenses. Only one of the Patriots' 2010 opponents, Buffalo, ranks among the worst dozen pass defenses according to DVOA. And it is about to get worse -- the Pats' final five games include interconference matchups with the number two (Green Bay) and number four (Chicago) pass defenses in the league, plus this week's rematch with a Jets defense that a lot of people (including me) think is probably better than its current DVOA ranking of 15th.
Quite a contrast to Pro Football Focus, which doesn't even list Brady as a top 10 QB...
In the RB ratings, Benny continues to be #3 in both DYAR and DVOA, and is #1 in success rate. Woodhead leads the league in RB receiving DVOA, and would be lead in running DVOA as well if he had 22 more carries. As it is, Woodhead is #9 in the league in DYAR despite not having enough carries to qualify, and would appear to be #4 or #5 back in the league in combined DYAR.
Gronkowski is now #2 in DYAR and #4 in DVOA, and Hernandez is #4 in DYAR and #10 in DVOA. Incredible production and efficiency from the TE's for New England this year:
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Re: Football Outsiders: New England Offense on record pace
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Originally Posted by Kasmir
Quite a contrast to Pro Football Focus, which doesn't even list Brady as a top 10 QB...
Just even more proof that their stats are bogus. I hate when people use their statistically rankings to prove anything. They are clearly a joke. I check out their site because they can have a good nugget or two, but their own stats are crap.
Re: Football Outsiders: New England Offense on record pace
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Originally Posted by Rob0729
Just even more proof that their stats are bogus. I hate when people use their statistically rankings to prove anything. They are clearly a joke. I check out their site because they can have a good nugget or two, but their own stats are crap.
I had a little dialogue with those guys about Brady here:
They basically are claiming that Brady is a system QB making easy throws. That raises the obvious question about why don't the 24+ other teams in the league with much worse offenses pick up their own "system QB", to which they mumble something about how great the Patriots' system is. "All hail Belichick", I guess -- not that they have a stat for that.
Re: Football Outsiders: New England Offense on record pace
I'm not sure I'm down with ranking BJGE over all these other RBs (Peterson, Rice, etc) but maybe I'm just not used to seeing media fanning any of our players.
Re: Football Outsiders: New England Offense on record pace
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Originally Posted by Haley
I'm not sure I'm down with ranking BJGE over all these other RBs (Peterson, Rice, etc) but maybe I'm just not used to seeing media fanning any of our players.
Peterson is just behind BJGE in their system. And to be fair, the Pats now have the top run blocking OL in their system:
Minnesota is 12th. They make no claims to be able to separate RB performance from OLINE performance, so it' seasy to imagine that Peterson would be incredible running in the NE offense and BJGE would struggle with Minnesota...
They basically are claiming that Brady is a system QB making easy throws. That raises the obvious question about why don't the 24+ other teams in the league with much worse offenses pick up their own "system QB", to which they mumble something about how great the Patriots' system is. "All hail Belichick", I guess -- not that they have a stat for that.
The whole system QB argument is so friggin weak. I agree that if Brady was just a system QB, there would be half the league with that system. The fact that they think that just shows how idiotic it is that the people running their analysis are.
Re: Football Outsiders: New England Offense on record pace
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Originally Posted by Rob0729
The whole system QB argument is so friggin weak. I agree that if Brady was just a system QB, there would be half the league with that system. The fact that they think that just shows how idiotic it is that the people running their analysis are.
Is Brady the greatest system QB of all time?
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We are "break, just hopefully not shatter into a million pieces" defense.
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Football Outsiders: New England Offense on record pace
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